snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 There is not a great pattern for delivering true arctic air to us that is shown. No ensemble support for an arctic outbreak and really no models showing anything aside from some modified arctic air getting into NE Washington. Which is great for some negative departure days, but not getting the 30+ year monkey off our backs. I see reason for some cautious optimism right now, but it people want to take the negative road that's fine too. I'm not saying any of this pan out perfectly for us, but the chance is there. The 12z ECMWF was pretty darn cold. A few minor tweaks and the 12z and 18z GFS could have been quite good. Then we have no idea what the second half of the month may bring when the MJO will be very favorable for us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 The models have a pretty classic El Nino look now. No torching in sight at least. Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense. People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Freezing rain advisory posted for the Roseburg, OR area. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense. People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today. I see reason for some cautious optimism right now, but it people want to take the negative road that's fine too. I'm not saying any of this pan out perfectly for us, but the chance is there. The 12z ECMWF was pretty darn cold. A few minor tweaks and the 12z and 18z GFS could have been quite good. Then we have no idea what the second half of the month may bring when the MJO will be very favorable for us. Forgive me, but in my lifetime January 1993 has been the best we can do...Pre-1980 that would have been pretty ho-hum. The best single January event I've seen here was January 2004. We can do better. Someday we will, is this the year...I am thinking no. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense. People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today.Why is OK for you to be the most negative person ever on the forum when you want to be... but then you call out people for just being realistic when you want to be overly excited? Honest question. And you still want to use the minor tweaks approach? That does not work well for us. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Why is OK for you to be the most negative person ever on the forum when you want to be... but then you call out people for just being realistic when you want to be overly excited? Honest question. And you still want to use the minor tweaks approach? That does not work well for us. I am not being negative. Just stating the obvious. Cold day today. No one in the Willamette Valley made it out of the 30s, PDX only hit 35. Baker City, OR is 8 degrees under sunny skies. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Last winter was awful as warm and uneventful as a winter can be. To me it fell into the 91-92' nightmare winter category. This year will not be in that category. I am thankful for that. Looking outside at sunny skies, snow covered ground, dozens of birds eating off my feeders and bird seed it is a great day and I am thankful. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am not being negative. Just stating the obvious. Cold day today. No one in the Willamette Valley made it out of the 30s, PDX only hit 35. Baker City, OR is 8 degrees under sunny skies.Your analysis is good... too bad its being criticized for not being giddy enough. Far too rational. Last couple weeks have been great here... and good timing with Christmas break. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Winter weather advisory! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 There is not a great pattern for delivering true arctic air to us that is shown. No ensemble support for an arctic outbreak and really no models showing anything aside from some modified arctic air getting into NE Washington. Which is great for some negative departure days, but not getting the 30+ year monkey off our backs. For snowlovers all that it takes sometimes is an arctic airmass on the eastside with offshore pressure gradients here. It looks like a favorable pattern for sustaining cool offshore flow going forward, which is one major part of the battle. We've been conditioned into thinking that a major upper level arctic event overhead is a requirement to get snow here but historically speaking that's definitely not the case. Next week or two looks to have some fun opportunities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 WWA issued for central/southern Willamette valley for 1-3" of snow & freezing rain. PLEASE let this verify. I haven't seen a flake down here since Feb, 2014! http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ORZ008&warncounty=ORC039&firewxzone=ORZ604&local_place1=Eugene%20OR&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=44.053&lon=-123.1122#.VohgHk9I4ng 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Winter weather advisory!If I hadn't taken the 10 seconds to post the link, I would have beat you to it. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Winter weather advisory! I only see Salem southward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I only see Salem southward.This is all we get north of Salem: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR327 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016 ORZ003-005-006-015-WAZ022-039-040-045-031600-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-327 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016 ...LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY... ...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGEAND PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND ANDVANCOUVER METRO AREA...WEST COLUMBIA GORGE...LOWER COLUMBIA...THEINTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF COWLITZ COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE NORTHOREGON COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 35 TO45 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PORTLAND METROAREA AND THE WEST HILLS. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG THROUGHTHE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE WHERE GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD OFFSHORE FLOW...A WEAK LOW PRESSURESYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OREGONAND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORETEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM A CHILLY NIGHT INTHE 20S TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW ALONG THE EASTSLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE...THE WESTERN TUALATIN VALLEY...AND THELOWER COLUMBIA...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHESPOSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLEMAY CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD WEATHER WILL LIKELY CAUSE ROADS TO BERECEPTIVE TO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAY CAUSESOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES DURING A BUSY TRAVEL DAY SUNDAY...ASPEOPLE RETURN HOME FROM THE HOLIDAYS. MEANWHILE...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR THECOLUMBIA GORGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPHNEAR GRESHAM AND TROUTDALE AND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH IN WESTERNPORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I only see Salem southward.We have lots of friends down the valley. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 For snowlovers all that it takes sometimes is an arctic airmass on the eastside with offshore pressure gradients here. It looks like a favorable pattern for sustaining cool offshore flow going forward, which is one major part of the battle. We've been conditioned into thinking that a major upper level arctic event overhead is a requirement to get snow here but historically speaking that's definitely not the case. Next week or two looks to have some fun opportunities.Good post. 18z GFS 6-10 day Composite Analog continues to look a bit promisinghttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Forgive me, but in my lifetime January 1993 has been the best we can do...Pre-1980 that would have been pretty ho-hum. The best single January event I've seen here was January 2004. We can do better. Someday we will, is this the year...I am thinking no.Ironically, January 1993 never had a traditional Arctic outbreak. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Pond near our house.... second pic is my son out there tempting fate. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I actually can't recall the last time a 1" or greater snow event for the Portland area was forecasted correctly 24 hours out by the NWS. December 2008? History tells us that nothing from them means something for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I actually can't recall the last time a 1" or greater snow event for the Portland area was forecasted correctly 24 hours out by the NWS. December 2008? History tells us that nothing from them means something for us!February 2014 was pretty close. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 February 2014 was pretty close. Yeah, the last couple days of that event were well predicted but the initial snow on February 6 was expected to largely stay to the south. I think they really only came around about 12 hours beforehand. The early 2009, December 2009, January 2012, March 2012, and December 2013 snowfalls all seemed to catch them a bit off guard if memory serves correctly. Then they blew it big time in mid December 2009 and November 2014 with the 3-6" forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Wow 28.7 now and falling quite rapidly with a 35-40mph east wind... This low-level cold air mass is just getting stronger and stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 A number of colder members on the 18z ensemble. Even as soon as the 8th. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Wow 28.7 now and falling quite rapidly with a 35-40mph east wind... This low-level cold air mass is just getting stronger and stronger I think the falling 850s and 925s associated with the ULL are going to help the windy areas. This has become a pretty respectable cold snap. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah, the last couple days of that event were well predicted but the initial snow on February 6 was expected to largely stay to the south. I think they really only came around about 12 hours beforehand. The early 2009, December 2009, January 2012, March 2012, and December 2013 snowfalls all seemed to catch them a bit off guard if memory serves correctly. Then they blew it big time in mid December 2009 and November 2014 with the 3-6" forecasts.Tough calls to make, but with some obvious howlers in there too. I had totally forgot the mid 12-09 ridiculousness. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 just got real http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 PDX NWS Forecast Discussion just issued mentions the cold pool may not go anywhere anytime soon and that east wind may persist all week although it shouldn't be as strong. Also perhaps a chance of frozen precip all week in PDX, especially east of I-205 and the Gorge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 The ECMWF WRF indicates little in the way of lowland snow and very little precip of any kind tomorrow / tomorrow night. It does show a possible 0.1 to 0.5 of snow over SW WA. As far as the cold snap shown at the end of the operational model the WRF backs it up with 850s of -20 over Eastern and Central WA, -7 to -8 over Western WA from Olympia northward, and around -5 for Portland. The cold is still shown to be advancing at that time though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 PDX NWS Forecast Discussion just issued mentions the cold pool may not go anywhere anytime soon and that east wind may persist all week although it shouldn't be as strong. Also perhaps a chance of frozen precip all week in PDX, especially east of I-205 and the Gorge. Certainly a lot of support for this. I'm liking this year much better than 2015 already. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 If Mark Nelsen is talking accumulating snow in PDX, then you know it is serious. Hard to convince that man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high. How much snow do you have on the ground? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 s**t just got real http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpgNWS verbiage regurgitated. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high.I LIKE this, even though I couldn't ' LIKE ' this. I'm just such a positive kind of guy you know... An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 If Mark Nelsen is talking accumulating snow in PDX, then you know it is serious. Hard to convince that man. I agree and I LIKE this An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Mark Nelsen just posted that he thinks snow is the most likely precip type for PDX, he feels the cold air pool is probably thick enough for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 NWS verbiage regurgitated. Think that Mark is working this weekend though. He probably likes it a bit more than they do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Mark Nelsen just posted that he thinks snow is the most likely precip type for PDX, he feels the cold air pool is probably thick enough for it. And then more problematic for sleet/zr with the next few systems... could be messy and colder week than currently advertised in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Think that Mark is working this weekend though. He probably likes it a bit more than they do.20 years and still working weekends... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 And then more problematic for sleet/zr with the next few systems... could be messy and colder week than currently advertised in my opinion Yep, just like we've seen in previous years the model runs the past few days were way too quick with wiping out this cold air especially near the surface. They are clearly backpedaling on that now. Alright, I'm officially excited now. http://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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