January 2016 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

D**n Cascades!

yeah... Honestly, I have never seen backdoor event produce snow here. At this point that is the only end result I want. Cold with no snow = A waste... Yet, it is way to early to call anything at this point and I like the chance that we at least have something to hope for... Chasing carrots...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Won't matter if it doesn't snow.  Just wasted cold as usual IMO.

agreed...

[luvssnow_spokane]

I might have to bust out the model countdown soon....

I will start prepping Gortons boat... I noticed it was getting covered in heavy frost. Gorton does not like frost...

[snow_wizard]

D**n Cascades!

 

 

It's still gets cold here too.  The WeatherBell mas indicate 24 for Seattle at 12z o day 10.  It also indicate moisture will undercutting the cold and bringing snow to SW WA at that time.  That could easily rotate north with time.

 

In the shorter term the ECMWF snowfall map shows widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of snow with the disturbance moving through tomorrow night.  I will give an update when the ECMWF WRF updates.

[Guest Winterdog]

Won't matter if it doesn't snow.  Just wasted cold as usual IMO.

Yeah, it seems that the back door variety of arctic air is the norm now and that is usually dry as well. I still would rather have the dry cold than a sloppy wet snow transition to warm any day.

[snow_wizard]

yeah... Honestly, I have never seen backdoor event produce snow here. At this point that is the only end result I want. Cold with no snow = A waste... Yet, it is way to early to call anything at this point and I like the chance that we at least have something to hope for... Chasing carrots...

 

Good God you and Tim are such downers.

[FroYoBro]

Won't matter if it doesn't snow.  Just wasted cold as usual IMO.

 

Good thing we have no idea what is going to happen still! 

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, it seems that the back door variety of arctic air is the norm now and that is usually dry as well. I still would rather have the dry cold than a sloppy wet snow transition to warm any day.

 

The scenario being shown on the ECMWF strongly invites overrunning.

 

I would swear some of the people on here would rather have the typical god awful El Nino pattern than cold the way they talk.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good God you and Tim are such downers.

*high fives* Tim... Wait.. how it that a downer?   LOL!  

[snow_wizard]

Good thing we have no idea what is going to happen still! 

 

 

Regardless they are missing the point of how big a deal a cold January would be if it happens.  We need to get that monkey off our back.

[snow_wizard]

*high fives* Tim... Wait.. how it that a downer?   LOL!  

 

We know good and well how much you hate dry cold.  That's all I'm saying.

 

I'm sure you would much rather see much above normal temps and gloomy drizzle like we normally have in a big El Nino winter.

[Deweydog]

So much to be upset about...

[luvssnow_spokane]

The scenario being shown on the ECMWF strongly invites overrunning.

 

I would swear some of the people on here would rather have the typical god awful El Nino pattern than cold the way they talk.

Nope.... I want region wide SNOW  ... Not dry cold, not a snow that melts a day later, not a snow to rain, not an ice storm... Just a true legit snow event. End of story.... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Regardless they are missing the point of how big a deal a cold January would be if it happens.  We need to get that monkey off our back.

I want a snow monkey... 

[snow_wizard]

Why is it this forum drags me down every time it looks like something good might happen?

[snow_wizard]

So much to be upset about...

 

Indeed.  Bring on a January 1992 redux.

[Perturbed Member]

LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CA COAST...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND BRING THE THREAT OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RUNNING INTO A VERY DRY AIR
MASS DUE TO THE DAYS OF OFFSHORE FLOW WE HAVE HAD...SO IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE WE BELIEVE
THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND THE PDX METRO
SUNDAY AND IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. IMPACTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
PROLIFIC IN AND AROUND EUGENE...WHERE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN
EARLIER SUNDAY AFTER A VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN WELL
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND EUGENE WILL PROBABLY
BE LIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CONCERN BEING SLICK ROADS. WILL INVESTIGATE
FURTHER BUT CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL NEED SOME SORT OF WINTER
WX OR FZRA ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MEANWHILE
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FALL OUT OF THE STRATUS NEAR KDLS...SNOWFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ACCUMULATION IN
THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
ALOFT STARTS A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS INTO THE LOWER STRATUS DECK.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HOOD RIVER GETS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY
MON MORNING...SO WE MAY NEED A SNOW ADVISORY THERE AS WELL. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THESE DECISIONS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WEAGLE

[luvssnow_spokane]

We know good and well how much you hate dry cold.  That's all I'm saying.

 

I'm sure you would much rather see much above normal temps and gloomy drizzle like we normally have in a big El Nino winter.

lol  dang you suck at mind reading.  I do not hate dry cold. I have never said that. Geesh... I love snow and cold together... I think you need a hug. 

[Guest Winterdog]

The scenario being shown on the ECMWF strongly invites overrunning.

 

I would swear some of the people on here would rather have the typical god awful El Nino pattern than cold the way they talk.

It would only take a small difference in timing for that bulge of cold air to move a little further west before it heads SW to give us a good Fraser outflow. Either way it is like you say much better than a typical El Nino pattern.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Why is it this forum drags me down every time it looks like something good might happen?

just keeping it real. maybe we can see it as, different perspective, balance nothing against you. Geesh!!

[snow_wizard]

It would only take a small difference in timing for that bulge of cold air to move a little further west before it heads SW to give us a good Fraser outflow. Either way it is like you say much better than a typical El Nino pattern.

 

I'm not sure we would need a Fraser outflow.  The situation being shown is pretty unusual and could easily bring snow as progged.  At any rate I will be interested to see the ECMWF WRF regarding tomorrow night.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF does show some lowland snow tomorrow night in SW WA.

[Perturbed Member]

ECMWF does show some lowland snow tomorrow night in SW WA.

If I recall it even showed a little bit in the PDX metro area, .5 to 1 inch?. Surprising to me since the WRF soundings look way too warm aloft. It may use up nearly all the tiny bit of precip just to wet bulb down and WRF thinks the wet bulb temp is well above freezing aloft. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I can't believe no one posted this yet.

 

12z GFS 6-10 Day Composite Analogs. Check out the 1st analog match. January 1st, 1979! SCORE. Nice correlation score too at 94%

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

[TT-SEA]

Enjoying the sun this morning... feels nice in the sun but the wind is sharp.   

 

[Deweydog]

18z NAM is much wetter tomorrow for the valley.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM is much wetter tomorrow for the valley.

It sure seems to be yeah

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010218/nam4km_ref_frzn_nwus_9.png

[TT-SEA]

18z NAM is much wetter tomorrow for the valley.

 

 

ECMWF was much wetter up here as well.   What looked dry... no longer looks dry.

[Timmy]

18z NAM is much wetter tomorrow for the valley.

Snow for me, that's good too because I'm getting tired of my old crusty snow

[Deweydog]

Snow for me, that's good too because I'm getting tired of my old crusty snow

The huge warm up to come should help with your krusty konundrum.

[TT-SEA]

Snow for me, that's good too because I'm getting tired of my old crusty snow

 

 

You will mix out on Monday so crusty is good... but even that can only last so long.   

[snow_wizard]

Much colder day today than yesterday.  The ULL may be helping with the max temps.  Pretty impressive drop at the 850 and 925 levels today and tonight.  Tomorrow could easily be colder yet.

[snow_wizard]

Snow for me, that's good too because I'm getting tired of my old crusty snow

 

I'm sure getting tired of people complaining about their crusty snow. 

[Perturbed Member]

The snowfall maps for the Canadian, Euro and 18z NAM are showing about .5 - 1 inch of accumulating snow at PDX tomorrow. Are the WRF soundings just entirely nonsense to show all the warm aloft or are these snow maps meaningless? 

[HighlandExperience]

Nice to see the 12z GFS trending in a favorable direction. As we have learned these snowfall maps don't necessarily mean much, but at this point trends are what we're worried about.

Tonight's run will be interesting. If that were to verify lots of weenies would rejoice.

[Deweydog]

The snowfall maps for the Canadian, Euro and 18z NAM are showing about .5 - 1 inch of accumulating snow at PDX tomorrow. Are the WRF soundings just entirely nonsense to show all the warm aloft or are these snow maps meaningless?

Another close call.

[TT-SEA]

Much colder day today than yesterday. The ULL may be helping with the max temps. Pretty impressive drop at the 850 and 925 levels today and tonight. Tomorrow could easily be colder yet.

Just as warm here... well mixed. There is a very low level inversion in the south Sound. Not indicative of the upper levels at all.

[BLI snowman]

The snowfall maps for the Canadian, Euro and 18z NAM are showing about .5 - 1 inch of accumulating snow at PDX tomorrow. Are the WRF soundings just entirely nonsense to show all the warm aloft or are these snow maps meaningless? 

 

Those maps don't do a great job of taking precip type into account. They lump most

[Perturbed Member]

Another close call.

 

It seems some models are trending towards more precip so far, 00z runs should be fun.

 

Mark Nelsen seems to be waiting for 00z runs before making a real forecast.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

I think even a measly inch of snow would make a lot of us lowly low landers happy.

[Perturbed Member]

Those maps don't do a great job of taking precip type into account. They lump most

 

Yeah unfortunately the WRF sounding was so fugly, it doesn't even look like it is close to snow. Just way too thick of a warm layer aloft. I guess we can hope that it is warming things up too quickly up there.