January 2016 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

Sure could have used these dew points last Sunday...

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure could have used these dew points last Sunday...

Heck ya. We'd still be building snowmen outside, or snow women, or just some snow boobies

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Jim got in on some freezing fog this morning.     One little patch of fog in far south King County and the northwest corner of Pierce County.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like Jim got in on some freezing fog this morning.     One little patch of fog in far south King County and the northwest corner of Pierce County.

That should make him most joyous and happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some lows this morning

 

PDX 28

SLE  24

EUG 21

MDF 19

RDM 3

KMT -6

ONO -6

Joseph -10

BNO -18

 

In Washington

 

SEA Tac 25

BLI 21

OLY 15

Spokane 1

Moses Lake 0

Pullman -3

[Guest Winterdog]

NWS Seattle should really be posting some frost accumulation advisories! Getting thick on my deck rail!

That looks exactly like my deck rail. The depth of the frost definitely eclipses that of my greatest snowfall for 2015!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These dewpoints make me feel it is very unlikely there is any meaningful precip tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Silver Falls hit 20 this morning. 24 currently. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Some lows this morning

 

In Washington

 

SEA Tac 25

BLI 21

OLY 15

Spokane 1

Moses Lake 0

Pullman -3

Wow, Seattle has already tied last years minimum and also tied for total snowfall!

[Gradient Keeper]

10:25 AM Update

We now have a mega-strong cold pool and Visible Imagery shows the more typical low clouds/stratus/ice fog expanding and enveloping the entire Columbia Basin and much of eastern Washington. Due to this it is VERY cold. As of 10 AM: Moses Lake 9, Ephrata 9, Pasco 19, Hermiston 21, Pendleton 20, Omak 7, Spokane 9, Cheney 2, Pullman 8. Temperatures aren't going to warm much at all today. Good luck scouring this out in the coming days, PDX moderating, or seeing any decrease in east winds.

 

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/1km/Pendleton/VIS1PDT.GIF

[snow_wizard]

That should make him most joyous and happy.

 

It is a bit surprising.  It just moved in here a few minutes ago.  It dropped to 22 and now it's only up to 29 so I'm pretty happy about that.

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like this might end up being the January without a summer.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the 12z GFS trending in a favorable direction.  As we have learned these snowfall maps don't necessarily mean much, but at this point trends are what we're worried about.

[snow_wizard]

Starting to look like this might end up being the January without a summer.

 

Certainly would be nice.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows more precip for the Seattle area tomorrow night.    Guessing freezing rain out here.   Hoping for regular rain.   Kids are all going back to school Monday... finally!   And its ironic that this band waits until the exact right time to impact schools in the valley and extend the break.   Come on RAIN.   

[BLI snowman]

At what level do you see this "warming layer"? This airmass is cold up and down and the models have been a step behind since this event started.

 

12z 4km NAM said all snow on Sunday, interested to see the rest of the 12z model suite says.

 

800MB to 900mb. Clearly temps go above freezing tomorrow in the afternoon and the little warm tongue at 850mb means dewpoints are above freezing there as well.

 

This definitely isn't quite a snow sounding

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Starting to look like this might end up being the January without a summer.

I'd be okay with this.

 

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[DareDuck]

Heading to Bend for a snowshoe trip today. Should be absolutely gorgeous over there.

Enjoy! Where are you going? I'll be doing some snowshoeing around Devils Lake later this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS thinking about a Winter Weather advisory for the Eugene area. 

[BLI snowman]

Beginning to look likely that an arctic airmass moves into MT in the 1/11-1/13 timeframe. Definitely something to watch, 12z Euro is now showing it as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Beginning to look likely that an arctic airmass moves into MT in the 1/11-1/13 timeframe. Definitely something to watch, 12z Euro is now showing it as well.

Yeah, with that south-southwest digging arctic trough. Might get a significant backdoor blast into eastern Washington. All 12z runs showing this now. Pretty solid agreement surprisingly.

[Jesse]

Enjoy! Where are you going? I'll be doing some snowshoeing around Devils Lake later this month.

Probably somewhere in the Cascade Lakes area. Devil's or Sparks.

 

In Central Oregon now. Was a very snowy drive over the Cascades. Light snow falling all along the east slopes due to the deepening cold pool and easterly flow.

[crf450ish]

Yeah, with that south-southwest digging arctic trough. Might get a significant backdoor blast into eastern Washington. All 12z runs showing this now. Pretty solid agreement surprisingly.

How significant are we talking here? Significant enough to make the current temps over here feel warm?

[Perturbed Member]

Still 30F with a DP of 13 here. Pretty impressive. I'm not sure much of anything will be reaching the ground tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Called it! Day 10 significant blast Gorge east

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010212/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Sexy retrogression of 500mb pattern. Arctic trough is going to continue to dig west-southwest. Bitter times ahead. The January we've been wanting for such a long time is coming.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010212/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF is awesome!  Brings a major Arctic blast much closer to us than previous runs.  The entire run has 850mb temps below zero and continuous weak to moderate offshore pressure gradients.  Looks cold overall. ​

[ShawniganLake]

How significant are we talking here? Significant enough to make the current temps over here feel warm?

You may finally get your single digits type of cold. 

[snow_wizard]

How significant are we talking here? Significant enough to make the current temps over here feel warm?

 

You will go below zero if the ECMWF is correct.  Major cold blast goes into Western Montana and seeps westward.

[stuffradio]

I wonder if Whatcom county will get into anything good with in the Jan 12-15 period.

[Gradient Keeper]

You will go below zero if the ECMWF is correct.  Major cold blast goes into Western Montana and seeps westward.

Yeah. You'll be way below zero.... Looks awesome

[snow_wizard]

We may actually have a cold January.  I think I will drop dead of shock if that happens.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if Whatcom county will get into anything good with in the Jan 12-15 period.

 

Details are lacking right now, but the GFS and ECMWF both paint interesting possibilities.  Maybe we just needed a super Nino to finally get January off its fat a$$ and do something around here.

[Guest Winterdog]

Called it! Day 10 significant blast Gorge east

D**n Cascades!

[Gradient Keeper]

That's a heck of a blast heading right for us!

 

Day 9

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_10.png

 

Day 10

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_11.png

[crf450ish]

You will go below zero if the ECMWF is correct.  Major cold blast goes into Western Montana and seeps westward.

Thats what I am talking about.....It was 2 degrees this morning at the Fruitland Gas station. I had to go chase the single digits haha. It was 11 at my house this morning, but 2 degrees 10 miles up the road.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

We may actually have a cold January.  I think I will drop dead of shock if that happens.

.... and dry....  

[epiceast]

We may actually have a cold January.  I think I will drop dead of shock if that happens.

Our inversion coincided with prime inversion season... Nothing shocking. I'd be more shocked if it snow accumulated on sidewalks or roads in at least 4 of the 5 following 5: Downtown Salem, Portland, Olympia, Tacoma and Seattle.

[GHweatherChris]

We may actually have a cold January.  I think I will drop dead of shock if that happens.

Won't matter if it doesn't snow.  Just wasted cold as usual IMO.

[Gradient Keeper]

I might have to bust out the model countdown soon....