January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

[Kayla]

Well... it shows a massive erosion for the entire west.    It can't be totally wrong.     UT, ID, MT, CA, OR, and WA... all warming up significantly as the flow turns.   And that is a brand new run.

 

This is a very deep cold layer. No way a weak ULL erodes all this lower level cold air that quickly.

 

Canadian did pretty well with our last inversion back over the Thanksgiving weekend and it seems to have a good handle on the low level temps for this upcoming week IMO.

[TT-SEA]

This is a very deep cold layer. No way a weak ULL erodes all this lower level cold air that quickly.

 

Canadian did pretty well with our last inversion back over the Thanksgiving weekend and it seems to have a good handle on the low level temps for this upcoming week IMO.

 

 

I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area.  

[Kayla]

I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area.  

 

Yeah...it's a tough call at this point, but we all know how terrible the models do in these types of setups.

[Kayla]

FWIW, 06z 2.5km Canadian shows 2-3" of snowfall for PDX metro on Sunday....

[Parksvillewx]

24.8F here this AM. My coldest low since Feb 2014.

[crf450ish]

11 here right now.....Wife is in Spokane to go shopping. Woke up at 5, left at 5:30... She reported:

 

1-Davenport

 

-4-Reardan

 

2-Airway Heights

 

3- Downtown Spokane

[TT-SEA]

Inversion is stagnating as well.   Actually snowing at Snoqualmie Pass from the low clouds that worked their way up along I-90 from Ellensburg.   

 

And some low fog this morning from Olympia to SEA.

[Timmy]

I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area.

It's important to note that map was at 925mb which is like 2500'? The free air up there will likely mix out, while the lowest levels in the basin and the valleys will stay much cooler and take longer to scour. Not ideal for snow though.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's important to note that map was at 925mb which is like 2500'? The free air up there will likely mix out, while the lowest levels in the basin and the valleys will stay much cooler and take longer to scour. Not ideal for snow though.

A dusting to 2" of snow following by Sleet and ZR problems coming.....

[Deweydog]

Sprinkles/light ice pellets tomorrow afternoon. Prepare now.

[MossMan]

Sprinkles/light ice pellets tomorrow afternoon. Prepare now.

Sounds devastating, good thing you have a generator so you can still watch the Hawks game when the power grid gets wiped out.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds devastating, good thing you have a generator so you can still watch the Hawks game when the power grid gets wiped out.

 

 

Don't think I want to watch the Hawks game tomorrow.   Might be our first blow-out loss in a long time.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has the light precip tomorrow evening and then a little more on Tuesday and then goes back to dry for the rest of the week.

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z GFS has the light precip tomorrow evening and then a little more on Tuesday and then goes back to dry for the rest of the week.

Yeah. Jet looks more suppressed...Watch for any southwestward digging arctic troughs in Canada

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows a huge warm up across the west as by Monday... but more accurately shows the cold air in the Gorge hanging tough.

 

Now:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.03.0000.gif

 

 

Monday morning:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/xslp.51.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.nLL8jIuyoM.png

 

 

 

Still... I think Monday is going to feel pretty warm around the Seattle area compared to recent days.   Dewpoints above freezing and temps in the upper 40s.

[MossMan]

Don't think I want to watch the Hawks game tomorrow. Might be our first blow-out loss in a long time.

Yeah, it could be as ugly as that map you posted earlier! Just hope we can make it through the game without any major injuries.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it could be as ugly as that map you posted earlier! Just hope we can make it through the game without any major injuries.

 

 

Just play all back-ups and concede a 50-point loss and try to go into the playoffs a little more rested.   

[Deweydog]

*********HUGE WARM UP WATCH ISSUED*********

[Gradient Keeper]

Definite digging trough southwest towards us arctic air steadily progressing south-southwest through BC/AB. That weak low offshore may not stop it, so it could slide down over us, or at least into eastern Washington for backdoor arctic air.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010212/gfs_T850_namer_32.png

[Jesse]

22º dp 11º in the West Hills with very gusty winds. I've been getting wind chill values in the low single digits all night and this morning.

 

Be lucky to get out of the 20's today. Fair to say this is more than just "fake cold" at this point.

But did you hear it might warm up eventually? Don't you even think about enjoying this!!

[Snowman5678]

26.4, colder than I expected. We can go ahead and call this a modified blast(low-level). East wind is insane this morning 40-50mph gusts right now no question. It is raging much stronger than anything Friday. The gusts are so loud. I'm a little concerned about my fir and elm tree as well about power outages.

 

Cold air continues to deepen in and up over the Gorge.

Three Corner Rock at 3450' is now down to 11 degrees. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TRKW1&table=1&banner=off

 

I also see east wind has developed again up at Larch Mt. 1150'

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TR951&table=1&banner=off

 

6z GFS

Wow. Potential Snow/Ice Storm for PDX at day 10. Also accompanying this is a likely major downslope/east wind storm with a OTH-GEG downslope gradient of 24-25mb shown. A backdoor arctic blast moves into eastern Washington thanks to a mega-strong 1058mb arctic high dropping into Montana. Since this is the first run of any kind to show this we'll consider it an outlier, but let's keep an eye on any chance of this most exciting possibility.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

Haha makes sense if that were to happen, it's after I leave!  

 

Can't check the models at the moment but hopefully Salt Lake can get in on the action.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS was a bit close to giving us a cold northeast blast.... close but nope

[Jesse]

Heading to Bend for a snowshoe trip today. Should be absolutely gorgeous over there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Heading to Bend for a snowshoe trip today. Should be absolutely gorgeous over there.

Around Devils or Sparks Lake would be awesome

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle should really be posting some frost accumulation advisories! Getting thick on my deck rail!

[Gradient Keeper]

If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8

[TT-SEA]

If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8

 

 

That is exactly what the WRF shows late this week and next weekend.   Looks like Canadian would be similar.

[Canadian guy]

Definite digging trough southwest towards us arctic air steadily progressing south-southwest through BC/AB. That weak low offshore may not stop it, so it could slide down over us, or at least into eastern Washington for backdoor arctic air.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010212/gfs_T850_namer_32.png

That trough has definitely been trending to the south west over the last few gfs runs. Still very far out though.

[Gradient Keeper]

That trough has definitely been trending to the south west over the last few gfs runs. Still very far out though.

Yes it has you're right. It's a nice trend let's keep it going..

[TT-SEA]

If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8

 

 

Next Saturday... its back.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/xslp.168.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.PCWcdk8woj.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

NWS Seattle should really be posting some frost accumulation advisories! Getting thick on my deck rail!

Why in the hell would you want to cause region wide panic?... Just plain silly!!

[IbrChris]

Highs/Lows past 8 days

3 mi S of Rexburg, ID

4,860 ft

 

Jan 2: /-15

Jan 1: 12/-16

Dec 31: 7/-14

Dec 30: 13/-8

Dec 29: 12/-9

Dec 28: 12/-7

Dec 27: 8/-17

Dec 26: 10/-5

Dec 25: 16/5

 

Ready for spring.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF actually showing some light snow accumulation here for Monday morning. Trace to 2" on the 4Km.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What Tim is saying about the ULL makes sense if you think about it. There is no way these week systems would be able to break through the ridge if the ULL wasn't opening the door.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM also shows a cold pool developing by day 7 and at day 9-10 gives PDX a possible Ice/Snow storm(if cold enough air is pulls west over PDX) shows very strong east winds, so maybe.

[Gradient Keeper]

What Tim is saying about the ULL makes sense if you think about it. There is no way these week systems would be able to break through the ridge if the ULL wasn't opening the door.

That ULL is saving PDX from an ice storm next week if you ask me.

[Gradient Keeper]

Kind of interesting not seeing any moderating or mixing at 850/925mb south of the ULL in extreme southern/southeast Oregon. Could it be so weak that it's not going to scour anything.

[Deweydog]

Kind of interesting not seeing any moderating or mixing at 850/925mb south of the ULL in extreme southern/southeast Oregon. Could it be so weak that it's not going to scour anything.

It's a cold system.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's a cold system.

It's the arctic blast originating from Mexico dream scenario of mine....