January 2016 in the PNW

[FroYoBro]

I would bet that the Forest Grove area sees some snow, while most places see sleet/freezing rain. 

[Deweydog]

It seems some models are trending towards more precip so far, 00z runs should be fun.

 

Mark Nelsen seems to be waiting for 00z runs before making a real forecast.

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

 

I think even a measly inch of snow would make a lot of us lowly low landers happy.

As Justin said, the precip maps you're referring to tend to smooth some of the finer details.

 

At this point, if there's sufficient moisture there will be frozen precip but in the valley it will most likely be sleet/rain.

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160102/18Z/f30/6hqpfconus.png

 

 

925mb

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160102/18Z/f30/925mbtempconus.png

 

850mb

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160102/18Z/f30/850mbtempconus.png

 

 

NAM seems to think we will be at or below 0c at 925mb and 850mb during precip tomorrow. 

[epiceast]

The snow here is absolutely powdery. It's also brilliantly sunny, Moscow has been on the edge of stratus. Just wish it wasn't so D**n cold every night.

[Perturbed Member]

As Justin said, the precip maps you're referring to tend to smooth some of the finer details.

 

At this point, if there's sufficient moisture there will be frozen precip but in the valley it will most likely be sleet/rain.

 

Between the two I guess I'd rather have sleet?

[BLI snowman]

Between the two I guess I'd rather have sleet?

 

It kinda looks like snow when it falls, at least....

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown] 1/2/16

Next up................

18z GFS in 10 minutes

00z NAM in 4 hours 30 minutes

00z GFS in 6 hours 10 minutes

00z GEM in 7 hours 10 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 30 minutes

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, the earlier timing on the 18z NAM is an interesting wrinkle. Just enough precip moves in before the last of the subfreezing air column erodes in the afternoon.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kspb.txt

 

The surface output does give the northern parts of the Portland area some snow before it changes to ZR. It tends to be a little more accurate with the precip type than the low-res snow maps.

[epiceast]

Time to start tracking this thing guys. ULL is over Central Oregon atm and there is a puny band of rain off California coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

If the 18z GFS goes bonkers with cold or snow, it might not be as drunk as usual. Let's at least look for a similar trend by day 6-8 with the arctic trough digging south-southwest in the Canadian prairies towards Alberta.

[TT-SEA]

If the 18z GFS goes bonkers with cold or snow, it might not be as drunk as usual. Let's at least look for a similar trend by day 6-8 with the arctic trough digging south-southwest in the Canadian prairies towards Alberta.

The 18Z run is drunk with power I tell you.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is running...

[Deweydog]

Between the two I guess I'd rather have sleet?

Sorry... requests have to be submitted a minimum of 48 hours prior to an event.

[Deweydog]

GFS still slower and subsequently drier.

 

Wetter than the 12z though...

[Perturbed Member]

12z GFS

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/12Z/f039/24hqpfconus.png

 

18z GFS

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/18Z/f033/24hqpfconus.png

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS definitely looks like snow about Salem northward on Sunday evening. I still think moisture is going to die a slow death north of Salem due to persistent east wind/lower dewpoints. It's going to take awhile to saturate the air mass sufficiently.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_5.png

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS much colder during precip at 925 and 850.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/18Z/f033/925mbtempconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/18Z/f033/850mbtempconus.png

 

Looks like it is in agreement with 18z NAM on those.

[MossMan]

Lake starting to freeze! Brrrr!

[Deweydog]

12-18-05!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Looks better than the 12z, hopefully models will keep on trending wetter.

 

The trend is clearly favorable, more precip and colder.

 

 

Just look at the difference in the 925mb temps from 12z vs 18z runs

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/12Z/f039/850mbtempconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160102/18Z/f033/850mbtempconus.png

 

Tonight 00z WRF is going to come in much cooler for tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Is it just me, or is the ULL looking really weak and dies over northwest Washington/southwest BC? Could be me. IF we do not scour from this first weak system, that one on Tuesday evening is going to be an ice maker for PDX/Gorge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temps already falling east of I-205 to 30-31 degrees.... just like when we have an arctic blast, which fake cold, real cold, whatever this is an arctic blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, HR 102 flow already bending around in Canadian prairies....Need the 997mb low to either dissipate or drift south.... Like that deep low way out by Aleutians and ridge configuration.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010218/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_18.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 arctic air lurks to our north-northeast

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010218/gfs_T850_nwus_29.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a cold day. Highs in many of the E. Oregon basins only hitting 8-12.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm sure getting tired of people complaining about their crusty snow.

I have crusty snow and haven't complained once. Snow is snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33/20 at Silver Falls today. Down to 32 now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chances for any real legitimate arctic outbreaks are very small right now. Interestingly it looks like we will have our coldest temps of the winter right around the same time we did last year. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Down to 31.1 already falling quickly.

[epiceast]

So did 18z ever get rid of that low?

[Gradient Keeper]

So did 18z ever get rid of that low?

Looks like it is absorbed or dissipates over southwest BC to me.

[snow_wizard]

Lake starting to freeze! Brrrr!

 

Impressive it has begun already.

[snow_wizard]

Chances for any real legitimate arctic outbreaks are very small right now. Interestingly it looks like we will have our coldest temps of the winter right around the same time we did last year. 

 

You say this when the models are trending better?

[Gradient Keeper]

You say this when the models are trending better?

 I really liked 12z runs this morning, BUT I don't know if we yet have any solid trends either way.

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 53 minutes!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS continues the idea of being dangerously close to something very good in the 6 to 10 day period.  Still no way to know how it will play out.  One thing for sure is the first third of January at least appears destined to average well below normal.

[snow_wizard]

 I don't know if we yet have any solid trends either way.

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 53 minutes!

 

The 12z ECMWF was certainly the best run yet for that model and the 12z and 18z GFS both bring Arctic air very close.  The bad news is there appears to be little moisture this far north tomorrow night on the 18z now.

[TT-SEA]

You say this when the models are trending better?

 

 

So the chances of a true arctic blast improve from 1% to 5%?   His statement is still very accurate.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is not a great pattern for delivering true arctic air to us that is shown. No ensemble support for an arctic outbreak and really no models showing anything aside from some modified arctic air getting into NE Washington. Which is great for some negative departure days, but not getting the 30+ year monkey off our backs. 

[snow_wizard]

Interesting scenario on the 18z during week two.  Arctic air moves into southern BC and a series of lows move in along the Oregon Coast and push moisture northward.  There is some excellent potential throughout the run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models have a pretty classic El Nino look now. No torching in sight at least.