January 2016 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

There is not a great pattern for delivering true arctic air to us that is shown. No ensemble support for an arctic outbreak and really no models showing anything aside from some modified arctic air getting into NE Washington. Which is great for some negative departure days, but not getting the 30+ year monkey off our backs. 

 

I see reason for some cautious optimism right now, but it people want to take the negative road that's fine too.  I'm not saying any of this pan out perfectly for us, but the chance is there.  The 12z ECMWF was pretty darn cold.  A few minor tweaks and the 12z and 18z GFS could have been quite good.  Then we have no idea what the second half of the month may bring when the MJO will be very favorable for us.

[snow_wizard]

The models have a pretty classic El Nino look now. No torching in sight at least.

 

Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense.

 

People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Freezing rain advisory posted for the Roseburg, OR area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense.

 

People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today.

 

I see reason for some cautious optimism right now, but it people want to take the negative road that's fine too.  I'm not saying any of this pan out perfectly for us, but the chance is there.  The 12z ECMWF was pretty darn cold.  A few minor tweaks and the 12z and 18z GFS could have been quite good.  Then we have no idea what the second half of the month may bring when the MJO will be very favorable for us.

 

Forgive me, but in my lifetime January 1993 has been the best we can do...Pre-1980 that would have been pretty ho-hum. The best single January event I've seen here was January 2004. We can do better. Someday we will, is this the year...I am thinking no.

[TT-SEA]

Too cold for a classic Nino look, but I get what you mean in a sense.

 

People are just dead set on a glass half empty point of view today.

Why is OK for you to be the most negative person ever on the forum when you want to be... but then you call out people for just being realistic when you want to be overly excited? Honest question.

 

And you still want to use the minor tweaks approach? That does not work well for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why is OK for you to be the most negative person ever on the forum when you want to be... but then you call out people for just being realistic when you want to be overly excited? Honest question.

 

And you still want to use the minor tweaks approach? That does not work well for us.

 

I am not being negative. Just stating the obvious. Cold day today. No one in the Willamette Valley made it out of the 30s, PDX only hit 35. Baker City, OR is 8 degrees under sunny skies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last winter was awful as warm and uneventful as a winter can be. To me it fell into the 91-92' nightmare winter category. This year will not be in that category. I am thankful for that. Looking outside at sunny skies, snow covered ground, dozens of birds eating off my feeders and bird seed it is a great day and I am thankful. 

[TT-SEA]

I am not being negative. Just stating the obvious. Cold day today. No one in the Willamette Valley made it out of the 30s, PDX only hit 35. Baker City, OR is 8 degrees under sunny skies.

Your analysis is good... too bad its being criticized for not being giddy enough. Far too rational.

 

Last couple weeks have been great here... and good timing with Christmas break.

[Deweydog]

Winter weather advisory!

[BLI snowman]

There is not a great pattern for delivering true arctic air to us that is shown. No ensemble support for an arctic outbreak and really no models showing anything aside from some modified arctic air getting into NE Washington. Which is great for some negative departure days, but not getting the 30+ year monkey off our backs. 

 

For snowlovers all that it takes sometimes is an arctic airmass on the eastside with offshore pressure gradients here. It looks like a favorable pattern for sustaining cool offshore flow going forward, which is one major part of the battle. 

 

We've been conditioned into thinking that a major upper level arctic event overhead is a requirement to get snow here but historically speaking that's definitely not the case. Next week or two looks to have some fun opportunities.

[Dave]

WWA issued for central/southern Willamette valley for 1-3" of snow & freezing rain.  PLEASE let this verify.  I haven't seen a flake down here since Feb, 2014!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ORZ008&warncounty=ORC039&firewxzone=ORZ604&local_place1=Eugene%20OR&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=44.053&lon=-123.1122#.VohgHk9I4ng

[Dave]

Winter weather advisory!

If I hadn't taken the 10 seconds to post the link, I would have beat you to it.  Lol.

[BLI snowman]

Winter weather advisory!

 

I only see Salem southward.

[Perturbed Member]

I only see Salem southward.

This is all we get north of Salem:

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR

327 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016

 

ORZ003-005-006-015-WAZ022-039-040-045-031600-

COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-I-

5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-

SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-

327 PM PST SAT JAN 2 2016

 

...LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...

 

...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE

AND PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND

VANCOUVER METRO AREA...WEST COLUMBIA GORGE...LOWER COLUMBIA...THE

INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF COWLITZ COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE NORTH

OREGON COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

 

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 

EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 35 TO

45 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PORTLAND METRO

AREA AND THE WEST HILLS. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG THROUGH

THE WEST COLUMBIA GORGE WHERE GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD OFFSHORE FLOW...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN OREGON

AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE

TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM A CHILLY NIGHT IN

THE 20S TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW ALONG THE EAST

SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE...THE WESTERN TUALATIN VALLEY...AND THE

LOWER COLUMBIA...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES

POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE

MAY CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

 

WHILE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...

SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD WEATHER WILL LIKELY CAUSE ROADS TO BE

RECEPTIVE TO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAY CAUSE

SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES DURING A BUSY TRAVEL DAY SUNDAY...AS

PEOPLE RETURN HOME FROM THE HOLIDAYS.

 

MEANWHILE...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR THE

COLUMBIA GORGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH

NEAR GRESHAM AND TROUTDALE AND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH IN WESTERN

PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE.

[Deweydog]

I only see Salem southward.

We have lots of friends down the valley.

[Gradient Keeper]

For snowlovers all that it takes sometimes is an arctic airmass on the eastside with offshore pressure gradients here. It looks like a favorable pattern for sustaining cool offshore flow going forward, which is one major part of the battle. 

 

We've been conditioned into thinking that a major upper level arctic event overhead is a requirement to get snow here but historically speaking that's definitely not the case. Next week or two looks to have some fun opportunities.

Good post.

 

 

18z GFS 6-10 day Composite Analog continues to look a bit promising

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif

[Deweydog]

Forgive me, but in my lifetime January 1993 has been the best we can do...Pre-1980 that would have been pretty ho-hum. The best single January event I've seen here was January 2004. We can do better. Someday we will, is this the year...I am thinking no.

Ironically, January 1993 never had a traditional Arctic outbreak.

[TT-SEA]

Pond near our house.... second pic is my son out there tempting fate.

 

 

[BLI snowman]

I actually can't recall the last time a 1" or greater snow event for the Portland area was forecasted correctly 24 hours out by the NWS. December 2008? 

 

History tells us that nothing from them means something for us!

[Deweydog]

I actually can't recall the last time a 1" or greater snow event for the Portland area was forecasted correctly 24 hours out by the NWS. December 2008?

 

History tells us that nothing from them means something for us!

February 2014 was pretty close.

[BLI snowman]

February 2014 was pretty close.

 

Yeah, the last couple days of that event were well predicted but the initial snow on February 6 was expected to largely stay to the south. I think they really only came around about 12 hours beforehand.

 

The early 2009, December 2009, January 2012, March 2012, and December 2013 snowfalls all seemed to catch them a bit off guard if memory serves correctly. Then they blew it big time in mid December 2009 and November 2014 with the 3-6" forecasts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow 28.7 now and falling quite rapidly with a 35-40mph east wind... This low-level cold air mass is just getting stronger and stronger

[snow_wizard]

A number of colder members on the 18z ensemble.  Even as soon as the 8th.

[snow_wizard]

Wow 28.7 now and falling quite rapidly with a 35-40mph east wind... This low-level cold air mass is just getting stronger and stronger

 

I think the falling 850s and 925s associated with the ULL are going to help the windy areas.  This has become a pretty respectable cold snap.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the last couple days of that event were well predicted but the initial snow on February 6 was expected to largely stay to the south. I think they really only came around about 12 hours beforehand.

 

The early 2009, December 2009, January 2012, March 2012, and December 2013 snowfalls all seemed to catch them a bit off guard if memory serves correctly. Then they blew it big time in mid December 2009 and November 2014 with the 3-6" forecasts.

Tough calls to make, but with some obvious howlers in there too. I had totally forgot the mid 12-09 ridiculousness.

[Gradient Keeper]

just got real

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX NWS Forecast Discussion just issued mentions the cold pool may not go anywhere anytime soon and that east wind may persist all week although it shouldn't be as strong. Also perhaps a chance of frozen precip all week in PDX, especially east of I-205 and the Gorge.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF WRF indicates little in the way of lowland snow and very little precip of any kind tomorrow / tomorrow night.  It does show a possible 0.1 to 0.5 of snow over SW WA.

 

As far as the cold snap shown at the end of the operational model the WRF backs it up with 850s of -20 over Eastern and Central WA, -7 to -8 over Western WA from Olympia northward, and around -5 for Portland.  The cold is still shown to be advancing at that time though.

[snow_wizard]

PDX NWS Forecast Discussion just issued mentions the cold pool may not go anywhere anytime soon and that east wind may persist all week although it shouldn't be as strong. Also perhaps a chance of frozen precip all week in PDX, especially east of I-205 and the Gorge.

 

Certainly a lot of support for this.  I'm liking this year much better than 2015 already.

[Timmy]

Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high.

[Perturbed Member]

If Mark Nelsen is talking accumulating snow in PDX, then you know it is serious. Hard to convince that man. 

[TT-SEA]

Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high.

 

 

How much snow do you have on the ground?

[Deweydog]

s**t just got real

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

NWS verbiage regurgitated.

[Gradient Keeper]

Coldest day so far up here only made it to 29. 3rd straight day with temps below freezing for a high.

I LIKE this, even though I couldn't ' LIKE ' this. I'm just such a positive kind of guy you know...

 

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[Gradient Keeper]

If Mark Nelsen is talking accumulating snow in PDX, then you know it is serious. Hard to convince that man. 

I agree and I LIKE this

 

An error occurred

You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen just posted that he thinks snow is the most likely precip type for PDX, he feels the cold air pool is probably thick enough for it. 

[BLI snowman]

NWS verbiage regurgitated.

 

Think that Mark is working this weekend though. He probably likes it a bit more than they do. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Mark Nelsen just posted that he thinks snow is the most likely precip type for PDX, he feels the cold air pool is probably thick enough for it. 

And then more problematic for sleet/zr with the next few systems... could be messy and colder week than currently advertised in my opinion

[Deweydog]

Think that Mark is working this weekend though. He probably likes it a bit more than they do.

20 years and still working weekends...

[Perturbed Member]

And then more problematic for sleet/zr with the next few systems... could be messy and colder week than currently advertised in my opinion

 

Yep, just like we've seen in previous years the model runs the past few days were way too quick with wiping out this cold air especially near the surface. They are clearly backpedaling on that now. 

 

Alright, I'm officially excited now. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif