January 2016 in the PNW

[Timmy]

Down to 20 right now, coldest temp of the winter here

[Timmy]

Also 19 in Scappoose and 16 at Timber junction at midnight. Very impressive

[BLI snowman]

19 here as well. Nice to see. 

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the HRRR is pushing light precip to PDX by 8 AM.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016010306/t1/cref_t1sfc_f10.png

[bainbridgekid]

HRRR precip through 10 PM tomorrow:

 

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, their 9pm discussion seemed to really emphasize the virga aspect in the Portland area which seems silly. All of the models presently show enough QPF to create issues tomorrow. Virga looks to be a pretty fleeting issue before the lower levels moisten up adequately. I think they're holding onto their bearishness as long as they possibly can, but a Winter Weather Advisory is definitely warranted.

 

I'd imagine the NWS will update their discussion and issue a WWA in the next 2 hours or they are simply out of their minds. They can't possibly believe their current forecast will verify when every model goes against it. 

[Tyler Mode]

Coldest morning of the year at 19 degrees right now.  Clouds should start increasing soon.

[FroYoBro]

Nice and dry snow falling here. Already a trace on everything. Beautiful!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even Salem with a 26/19 split right now. Eugene still 26. 

 

Currently 25 here with a little over 1/4" of new snow

[TT-SEA]

This band is just a teaser... the real show down there is later this afternoon and this evening.   

 

Here is 8 p.m. 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016010312/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f15.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I wish I could get pictures right now! This is pretty much a blizzard occurring right now out here near west Gresham. Moderate/heavy snow falling, east winds 25-35mph+, temp 25.2 and falling rapidly, very reminiscent of January 2004! This is outstanding!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This band is just a teaser... the real show down there is later this afternoon and this evening.   

 

Here is 8 p.m. 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2016010312/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f15.png

Probably when most areas are sleet, ZR, or rain.

[Jesse]

Probably when most areas are sleet, ZR, or rain.

Lol.

[Jesse]

Light to moderate snow falling here. Already a quarter inch coating on everything. This came in earlier than I was expecting. What a nice surprise to wake up to!

 

I think this has the potential to be a pretty nice event for the Portland area. Only 33 degree rain for the Silverton foothills, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This little band could produce up to an 1" in places, especially on the E side of the metro area where the heavier precip is. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light to moderate snow falling here. Already a quarter inch coating on everything. This came in earlier than I was expecting. What a nice surprise to wake up to!

 

I think this has the potential to be a pretty nice event for the Portland area. Only 33 degree rain for the Silverton foothills, though.

 

Dude, troll fail. Because its true. At least I got a little snow this morning. Currently 25 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 3 hourly obs that stand out to me.

 

Newport 30

The Dalles 23

Pendleton 15

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Holy Sheet!!! I actually got enough snow in Gladstone to cover the ground. Actually this is the first time in the 18 months I've been here that I actually saw some flakes..lol

 

Now onto this late morning/early afternoon. As it appears this morning's band is dying down.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 3 hourly obs that stand out to me.

 

Newport 30

The Dalles 23

Pendleton 15

Plenty cold air to feed into PDX all day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reports of sleet in the Oregon City area.

[Jesse]

Dude, troll fail. Because its true. At least I got a little snow this morning. Currently 25 degrees.

Even if it is true, you can still be happy for others.

[Timmy]

22f and snow here

[TT-SEA]

The 3 hourly obs that stand out to me.

 

Newport 30

The Dalles 23

Pendleton 15

 

 

We will know soon here if the models are scouring way too fast.   The new MM5 NAM shows warm air to Eugene by 10 a.m. and almost to Portland by 1 p.m.   My guess is that this will NOT happen.

 

Here is 1 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.09.0000.gif

[Jesse]

Holy Sheet!!! I actually got enough snow in Gladstone to cover the ground. Actually this is the first time in the 18 months I've been here that I actually saw some flakes..lol

 

Now onto this late morning/early afternoon. As it appears this morning's band is dying down.

You are currently experiencing sleet, according to those who only approve of orographically enhanced snow that favors their area over all others.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even if it is true, you can still be happy for others.

 

What I enjoy most is when there is strong onshore flow, I am getting snow and it is 40 degrees in Salem and Portland.

[FroYoBro]

Already turned to sleet here. I think it will turn to just normal rain this afternoon at my location. 

[FroYoBro]

You are currently experiencing sleet, according to those who only approve of orographically enhanced snow that favors their area over all others.

 

LOL. Turn it down a little. It is sleet here now and it has gradually been warming all morning. I'm not feeling too confident about this thing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are currently experiencing sleet, according to those who only approve of orographically enhanced snow that favors their area over all others.

 

Multiple people reporting sleet in Oregon City. 

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

You guys are crazy. Big fluffy flakes currently falling here again. Looks like one last little yellow blob of radar to go through then onto the next batch.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sounds like just small pockets of warming aloft... hoping the constant cold/strong east wind can fight that off any northerly advance of warm nose.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

LOL. Turn it down a little. It is sleet here now and it has gradually been warming all morning. I'm not feeling too confident about this thing. 

 

Probably warmer air aloft following this initial band of precip. This is probably the only shot of snow for most people in the metro area. I would guess the precip later for most of us will be one of the 3 types I referenced earlier. 

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

28/19 split currently in Oregon City. Doubt it is sleeting.

[FroYoBro]

28/19 split currently in Oregon City. Doubt it is sleeting.

 

That isn't how sleet works. It is the upper and mid levels that matter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sleet also being reported in Beaverton. The good news is there is no low level push of southerly flow. Even Roseburg and Medford are at freezing, with ZR in the Burg.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember January 2004 when the snow turned to sleet and then ZR, it was 19 degrees the entire time. When you see the yellow echoes coming at you, you know the sleet is coming. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sleet also being reported in Beaverton. The good news is there is no low level push of southerly flow. Even Roseburg and Medford are at freezing, with ZR in the Burg.

Yeah none at all. Meanwhile where I am heavy snow falling!

[Deweydog]

Had some sleet mixing in here briefly.

 

Why a blizzard warning hasn't been issued is beyond me. This will never change to rain. Ever.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

That isn't how sleet works. It is the upper and mid levels that matter.

I know how it works. Let me amend what I said. It may have some sleet in it but it is temporary. Mark's latest post mentioned that it may initially do this but evaporative cooling will ultimately win out. 19 deg. dewpoint bodes real well for later. I see temps dropping a few degrees once the main batch arrives later. We will probably all warm up a few degrees today but with the cold air still funneling in we will drop right back down.

[chopper 918]

Just snow here in Beaverton.

[FroYoBro]

Back to snow with the heavier backside of the band.