January 2016 in the PNW

[MossMan]

Wow!

 

You can already see a steady stream on the radar coming into the East Puget Sound lowlands. Interestingly the outflow doesn't seem to be killing it. It appears the SW quadrant of the ULL is where the big action is. Some of the models have missed the role the ULL is playing in this.

You might see some action today!

[BLI snowman]

Your name still throws me off, keep thinking you are reporting from Whatcom Co.

 

Nope, but I'm hoping they can get in on the action next week. Bellingham still hasn't had real snow since March 2014.

[snow_wizard]

Huge improvment on the GFS ensemble for late this week.  Also...the 4 run CFS composite is strongly supporting the GFS on its latest solution.  It was not showing that yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

This in my opinion was the worst performance I've ever seen from the WRF. If we were to believe the WRF based on runs yesterday especially the 12z/00z 4km soundings none of us would have seen snow. Just an atrocious job of handling the depth of the cold air, always playing catch up with the offshore gradients, and timing of precip was way off.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's lightly snowing here in Bonney Lake and 29°

[Perturbed Member]

This in my opinion was the worst performance I've ever seen from the WRF. If we were to believe the WRF based on runs yesterday especially the 12z/00z 4km soundings none of us would have seen snow. Just an atrocious job of handling the depth of the cold air, always playing catch up with the offshore gradients, and timing of precip was way off.

 

Agree, I usually count on those soundings quite a bit but both the 12z and 00z runs from yesterday were way off. The operational models did a relatively better job, interesting.

[MossMan]

Good to see PDX area getting some snow. Although, not seeing very many pictures so hard to live vicariously through you guys.

 

As some others have mentioned, precip does not seem to be falling apart on it's way North like some models showed. Would be nice to have a semi-surprise, over-achieving event for everyone. Haven't had one of those for a while.

Yes, I could be as wrong as the WRF with thinking Puget Sound wouldn't see anything today.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF does look promising for the Seattle this evening.  850s stay below zero until late night.  Total precip is quite impressive.

[MossMan]

It's lightly snowing here in Bonney Lake and 29°

There is hope for the rest of us non Oregonions!

[Deweydog]

Big fat flakes.

[Gradient Keeper]

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD and PANCAKES

 

By far the most bitter air mass I've EVER seen on the WRF!

7:00 AM next Sunday. YES, those are 925mb temps around -35c over south-central BC/AB. AMAZING!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016010312/images_d2/slp.171.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Good to see PDX area getting some snow. Although, not seeing very many pictures so hard to live vicariously through you guys.

 

As some others have mentioned, precip does not seem to be falling apart on it's way North like some models showed. Would be nice to have a semi-surprise, over-achieving event for everyone. Haven't had one of those for a while.

This is going to be an over-achieving event. ECMWF has got this figured out as usual.

 

Precip on ECMWF was not shown to reach Seattle area until this evening. We are even ahead of that and then it gets real interesting later.

[MikeInEverett]

Being just south of Everett, I wonder how much snow I see, if any.

[Jesse]

Pretty exciting to have an ongoing event with other possible events developing in the mid-long range. I love weather days like this.

[Jesse]

It's lightly snowing here in Bonney Lake and 29°

Glad you are finally seeing something! Maybe it will give you a little more reason for positivity going forward.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Glad you are finally seeing something! Maybe it will give you a little more reason for positivity going forward.

It's not snowing hard enough.

[Timmy]

New 12Z ECMWF has copious precip for WA... including the Seattle area. WRF and HRRR are just wrong. More precip up here in the end than in Portland.

But we have the gorge!!! Muhahahaha

[Perturbed Member]

The ECMWF does look promising for the Seattle this evening.  850s stay below zero until late night.  Total precip is quite impressive.

 

I'd love for you guys up north to get involved in the action too. It would be quite something if this turned into a fairly region wide event given that just 48 hours ago no one thought this would amount to anything more than a few flurries and light ZR. 

[MossMan]

Being just south of Everett, I wonder how much snow I see, if any.

It's encouraging seeing all the overachieving going on so far with the northward trend of precip. Also nice seeing darkening clouds building just to my south! Hopefully we will see something!

[snow_wizard]

Amazing analogs from the 12z run.

 

3 from the late Dec and Jan 1968-69

1 from early Jan 1979

1 from Jan 1963

1 from the Jan 1998 cold snap

[snow_wizard]

But we have the gorge!!! Muhahahaha

 

We get cold outflow here also.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS has upped their amount to 2-4 inches for PDX. 

[The Swamp]

Light snow and fog here in the swamp.

[epiceast]

Dusting here, nice to see flakes in the air after a dry week. I really hope Seattle sees snow today. Maybe my criteria of regionally snowy month in PNW will be met on the third day of the month. It requires an accumulation of snow on pavement in four out of five PNW downtowns, them being Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, Portland and Salem.

[The Swamp]

Big fat flakes.

They're going to get a complex if you call them fat.

[snow_wizard]

Light snow has started here.  Even the ECMWF didn't have anything this early.

[MossMan]

Light snow and fog here in the swamp.

The biggest suprise of today!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just went outside to get more firewood. Solid glaze of ice on top of everything now. The next precip band setting up between Albany and Salem right now. Just msg'd my friend in Salem to check on precip type there. 

[The Swamp]

I've seen flakes today. I'm happy.

[TT-SEA]

Light snow and fog here in the swamp.

Fog? In this dry air mass?

[MossMan]

I've seen flakes today. I'm happy.

What's your temp?

[TT-SEA]

Sun still peaking through here with flurries. Strange.

[seattleweatherguy]

Light snow has started here. Even the ECMWF didn't have anything this early.

Wow so far nothing here

[Kayla]

PDX NWS has had a busy day of playing catching up. Just upped the snowfall amounts for PDX metro to 2-4" now.

 

This one had lots of potential written all over even a couple days ago but was poo pooed by many on here. Canadian and ECMWF are clear winners once again.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF isn't quite as good as the GFS late this week, but it's pretty darn close.  Definitely chilly and blocking in a decent place.  Looking like big potential for the 6 to 10 day period right now.

[epiceast]

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-9g9W6f.png

...

[TT-SEA]

Like MossMan said, we pretty much have for tonight and tomorrow. HRRR shows most of the precip fizzling. Maybe enough for some light accumulations if it can fight the dry air but it wont be much of anything. However, like he said, next weekend might be more interesting. But sadly I'll be gone.

ECMWF is waaaaaay wetter tonight. HRRR is just plain wrong.

[snow_wizard]

I think the rogue ULL had much to do with this.

[MossMan]

Don't think I have ever seen this much frost accumulation! Pretty cool! And with the ground so cold, anything that does fall will instantly stick. Currently 30 degrees.

[Kayla]

1" of snow depth officially reported at PDX.

 

About an 1.5" here in the West Hills and 24º with some decent drifts beginning to form around the yard.