January 2016 in the PNW

[The Swamp]

What's your temp?

26

[snow_wizard]

...

 

I kind of like the way it looks for the entire 5 to 10 day period.

[epiceast]

Not to brag, but I first noticed the cutoff low 5 days ago:

So there's a cut off low on last two euro runs... Is it going to be completely dry? Also it forma over CA and tracks NNE or north. Seems very unusual to me, usually those things break off from a trough first.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Snow starting to come down at a pretty good rate now. Over an inch so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pic of ZR in Oregon City

 

[Snowman5678]

ECMWF is waaaaaay wetter tonight. HRRR is just plain wrong.

Yeah, it's wrong, and so was I!  

 

I should have looked at the radar progression more before I made that statement.

 

Light flurries here now too.

[The Swamp]

Crisis over. Flurry blizzard has ended in the swamp.

[The Swamp]

Crisis over. Flurry blizzard has ended in the swamp.

[Deweydog]

Looks like the best dynamics are slowly making their way north. Nice little puppy this turned out to be.

 

All hail Mark Nelsen and his raging warm bias!

[MossMan]

We went from mostly clear skies just an hour ago to now mostly cloudy. Should limit the warming now, been stuck at 30 since the clouds moved overhead. Before that it was climbing at a good clip from this mornings low of 21.

[seattleweatherguy]

37 with dp of 24 snow is Def possible

[Jesse]

Looks like the best dynamics are slowly making their way north. Nice little puppy this turned out to be.

 

All hail Mark Nelsen and his raging warm bias!

 

Another band is moving north at the moment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 11am SLE still reporting light snow and 28. 28 at EUG, 30 PDX, Newport still 32. Aurora 28 with ZR. Here it is cloudy and 29. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Jet Suppression!

[Jesse]

Strange to see snow being reported at SLE, but ZR at Aurora.

[Phil]

That -NAO on the 12z ECMWF

[Perturbed Member]

ECMWF is waaaaaay wetter tonight. HRRR is just plain wrong.

 

Do you have the total QPF that ECMWF showed for PDX and for SEA?

[Deweydog]

Another band is moving north at the moment.

I suspect that will be more of a mix variety.

[seattleweatherguy]

The question is, will precip make it far enough north

[Jesse]

I suspect that will be more of a mix variety.

 

Snow still being reported in Salem. I can dream!

[BLI snowman]

I suspect that will be more of a mix variety.

 

I think we have until 4 or so to remain mostly snow up here. Could maybe double what we've gotten so far.

[Timmy]

Is there more precip than the band moving north out of pdx headed this way?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Report of moderate freezing rain falling in Salem now. 

[Deweydog]

I think we have until 4 or so to remain mostly snow up here. Could maybe double what we've gotten so far.

I think that next band is essentially a new phase of the event.

[Perturbance]

I've had light sleet here for the past 2 hours or so. Dusting of snow between 2 and 3 am to start the day off. Temp up to 32°

[TT-SEA]

Report of moderate freezing rain falling in Salem now. 

 

 

You have a lot of people reporting to you... are you some kind of official?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What we have with the NWS is a case of forecasters playing "catch up" and overcompensating. 

[BLI snowman]

I think that next band is essentially a new phase of the event.

 

Still no mixing here. I think Clark County is good for a few more hours from an 850mb/925mb standpoint.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a fairly interesting period of January weather in the mid-long range too. Who would have thought with a strong Nino?

A couple of us pointed out awhile back that January has actually historically been the best month during strong Ninos.

 

Pretty fun catching up on the last few days of posts today, watching the coaster ride and excitement building towards an actual widespread event.

[Timmy]

Looks like the preface to a car wreck!

[Jesse]

Looks like the preface to a car wreck!

Hopefully they are actually just stopped in that position!

[Jesse]

Still no mixing here. I think Clark County is good for a few more hours from an 850mb/925mb standpoint.

I'm holding out hope for a little more out here too. We probably have just shy of an inch on the ground. Another inch would be awesome and have a little more lasting power.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the best dynamics are slowly making their way north. Nice little puppy this turned out to be.

 

All hail Mark Nelsen and his raging warm bias!

 

He deserves some serious praise on this one.

[Perturbed Member]

Still no mixing here. I think Clark County is good for a few more hours from an 850mb/925mb standpoint.

 

No mixing here near HIO either. It would be nice if we had those KPTV tower temps though to see what was going on above. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the preface to a car wreck!

 

Probably a solid glaze of ZR there. 

[Dave]

What a massive disappointment.  Still haven't seen a flake down here since Feb 2014.  All we got is a crappy layer of very frozen sleet.  Now there's some freezing rain.  Gonna have to scrape off the vehicle and head to the liquor store soon to drink away my sorrows. 

[snow_wizard]

​Light snow falling again.  This time the sky looks much more serious.  The snow is dry and falling very slowly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still very, very light snow here temp 32

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trees are getting a little silvery look to them now. I am not worried to much about ZR though as I think I should get up into the 32-34 range this afternoon. Probably some black ice in the morning, and the valley may be a mess...

[Perturbed Member]

He deserves some serious praise on this one.

 

Yep, though this is pretty much the norm for Mark. He often gets things right even when others are wrong or clueless. I give a ton of weight to his opinion for good reason.