January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Had some sleet mixing in here briefly.

 

Why a blizzard warning hasn't been issued is beyond me. This will never change to rain. Ever.

12-18-05!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah none at all. Meanwhile where I am heavy snow falling!

 

You are in a good spot with this band. It has intensified as it moved north, and I doubt your area gets this warm "nose."

[Timmy]

Beautiful blowing snow in Scappoose

[Deweydog]

12-18-05!

Pretty reminiscent so far. Glad I mentioned it, makes me look like a pretty fart smeller.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Currently 25.3 in Eugene.  Not much of a warm nose fellas.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Dumping like a mother here now as the back edge is coming through.  I'm right off of oatfield right on the Gladstone/Milwaukie border.

[Deweydog]

Currently 25.3 in Eugene. Not much of a warm nose fellas.

Nope! And that's exactly how it works!

[FroYoBro]

Dumping like a mother here now as the back edge is coming through.  I'm right off of oatfield right on the Gladstone/Milwaukie border.

 

Yeah, it is coming down really good. Should get a 1/2 to one inch out of this band. 

[Jesse]

Currently 25.3 in Eugene. Not much of a warm nose fellas.

The warm nose would be in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The surface will stay cold just about everywhere.

 

That is how sleet happens. Snow in the upper levels melts into regular rain in warmer mid-levels, then the low level pool of cold air will freeze that rain back into ice pellets, if it's deep enough.

 

A shallower cold layer would mean ZR.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it is coming down really good. Should get a 1/2 to one inch out of this band.

Of sleet?

[Jesse]

Pretty reminiscent so far. Glad I mentioned it, makes me look like a pretty fart smeller.

How much did the metro area get before it translationed to frozen Andrew tears (sleet)?

 

I feel like I remember there being 2-3" in Vancouver.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 25.3 in Eugene.  Not much of a warm nose fellas.

 

Currently 25 here at 1600'. If there is any warm nose it is probably in the 2-3k range. 

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

The warm nose would be in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The surface will stay cold just about everywhere.

 

That is how sleet happens. Snow in the upper levels melts into regular rain in warmer mid-levels, then the low level pool of cold air will freeze that rain back into ice pellets, if it's deep enough.

 

A shallower cold layer would mean ZR.

True, but they still haven't switched to southerly winds yet.  As long as the low off the coast continues to spin south of us we are in the money.  I don't see any mechanicsm to switch our winds.  The snow is blowing north to south at a pretty good clip here.  This early snow cover is only going to help us as the day progresses.  Doubt anyone say Salem north switches over before tomorrow morning.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Getting pretty close to an inch here now.  Wonder when the winter weather advisory gets switched to a snow advisory?  I would say probably by the late morning AFD.

[FroYoBro]

Of sleet?

It was all sleet for a few minutes there. 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the new 12Z GFS pretty much stops the precip just south of Seattle all night and tomorrow as well.   It never really gets here and just falls apart.

 

Tomorrow morning...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_024_precip_p03.gif

 

 

Tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_033_precip_p03.gif

 

 

If its going to warm up here finally... I would much prefer that school be open tomorrow.  

[Jesse]

True, but they still haven't switched to southerly winds yet. As long as the low off the coast continues to spin south of us we are in the money. I don't see any mechanicsm to switch our winds. The snow is blowing north to south at a pretty good clip here. This early snow cover is only going to help us as the day progresses. Doubt anyone say Salem north switches over before tomorrow morning.

Warming in mid levels means somewhere between 2-4,000' ft in a situation like this. If warm air moves in at that elevation it wouldn't matter if there aren't any southerly winds at the surface. People would see either sleet or freezing rain.

[Jesse]

Some sort of puffy, powdered sleet is falling moderately here now. About a half inch or more of this white, sleet like substance covering everything. Sleet updates to come.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

The band definitely stalled for sure.  I was expecting it way over by now.. This is great!!!

[crf450ish]

13 here. Just waiting for the snow to hit me. Sure feels good not having to worry if its going to rain or snow.....pretty much guaranteed to snow in these parts

[TT-SEA]

I think the Portland area will stay frozen precip for the duration of the event... either snow, sleet, or freezing rain.     Regular rain is not going to happen north of Wilsonville.

[FroYoBro]

Some sort of puffy, powdered sleet is falling moderately here now. About a half inch or more of this white, sleet like substance covering everything. Sleet updates to come.

 

How dare people report that they were getting sleet.

 

Although, I probably did have a mini weenie attack for a minute there. 

[Jesse]

How dare people report that they were getting sleet.

 

Although, I probably did have a mini weenie attack for a minute there.

The above post was just supposed to be silly. Settle.

[Deweydog]

How much did the metro area get before it translationed to frozen Andrew tears (sleet)?

 

I feel like I remember there being 2-3" in Vancouver.

Vancouver had less than an inch. The mountain wave really killed the precip here.

[Deweydog]

Some sort of puffy, powdered sleet is falling moderately here now. About a half inch or more of this white, sleet like substance covering everything. Sleet updates to come.

Dude... you've been so good lately...

[FroYoBro]

The above post was just supposed to be silly. Settle.

 

I know. Trust me I am in a great mood right now. Internet typing just comes across as harsh sometimes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dude... you've been so good lately...

 

iFred is going to be disappointed.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Winding down now.   Now on to the main event later?  Need another update from Mr. Nelsen

[BLI snowman]

All snow here! LOL1

[Gradient Keeper]

A bit of a warm nose showing south of Eugene. Mt. Yoncalla 1822' has a light south wind and has warmed from 25 at 1 AM to 31 at 7 AM.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=YNFO3&table=1&banner=off

[TT-SEA]

I'm glad this hit on a Sunday, tomorrow would have been bad with people going back to work and school.

 

 

No doubt.   That is what I am cheering against up here.

[TT-SEA]

For Seattle area folks... the WRF and the HRRR show this deformation zone is almost dead on arrival tomorrow morning.

 

Here is early Monday morning....

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016010313/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f23.png

 

http://s2.postimg.org/6mmgvkibt/Untitled.jpg

[FroYoBro]

 

A bit of a warm nose showing south of Eugene. Mt. Yoncalla 1822' has a light south wind and has warmed from 25 at 1 AM to 31 at 7 AM.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=YNFO3&table=1&banner=off

 

 

Now up to 35. 

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

I'm glad this hit on a Sunday, tomorrow would have been bad with people going back to work and school.

Problem is we may not get above freezing before tomorrow morning's commute........

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few snow pics. Here is my friends apartment complex in Salem. 

 

Next one is in SE Portland I believe

 

[Jesse]

Coming down hard now. Huge flakes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the west side as in Tigard/Beaverton is probably going to do well as the precip should take a little longer to clear that area.

[BLI snowman]

Band does look to be filling in a little to the SW.

[Jesse]

Dude... you've been so good lately...

It was supposed to be humorous.

[James Jones]

Currently 26 degrees in Eugene, Salem, McMinnville and Aurora. And currently 28 degrees in Hillsboro, Portland and Troutdale. I don't think PDX will get above freezing today.

Seems likely that they'll stay at or below freezing. Could pull off an impressive looking 32/28 day.

 

Certainly an unexpected event for the general population; I doubt many had any idea this was a possibility before going to bed last night.