January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Snow is falling on most of the Cascade passes this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z alert!

[ShawniganLake]

Some more fairly robust backdoor cold on the long range GFS this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Received a report from my source of a hailstorm at my residence and the ground turning white temporarily.   

 

Also received another report of lightning and "really loud" thunder around the same time.   

 

I am not home so I cannot verify these reports but I was sent pictures of hail covering the ground.  

[ShawniganLake]

Received a report from my source of a hailstorm at my residence and the ground turning white temporarily.

 

Also received another report of lightning and "really loud" thunder around the same time.

 

I am not home so I cannot verify these reports but I was sent pictures of hail covering the ground.

These things happen with a chilly unstable airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mega blast alert

[stuffradio]

Mega blast alert

How much Carrot cake?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Double shot.

[TT-SEA]

These things happen with a chilly unstable airmass.

 

 

Also a hallmark of spring at our location.    

[ShawniganLake]

How much Carrot cake?

Lots and lots. No frosting for us, though. Snow to Oregon.

[stuffradio]

Lots and lots. No frosting for us, though. Snow to Oregon.

Typical. Only Oregon gets snow ever.

[Timmy]

Holy crap... That 18z is the best the models have looked in a long time. Is actually pretty in line with the euro this morning, just slightly further west.

[Timmy]

Typical. Only Oregon gets snow ever.

-15 to -20 850's over west Oregon and washinton

[luvssnow_spokane]

Someone wake Gorton the Fisherman the hell up!!!! ... The 18z has some hatches that may need to be baton down. Chilly-gee-willikers... 

 

 

 

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Holy crap... That 18z is the best the models have looked in a long time. Is actually pretty in line with the euro this morning, just slightly further west.

The best run I have seen in years!!! I needed a freakin cigarette after watching that run... Some one slap me!!  NOT you Jesse... You would enjoy it to much

[BLI snowman]

Ugh, looks like this is almost certainly going to be another dry blast for us. Oh well, this winter was going on my sh*t list anyways.

[Timmy]

Ugh, looks like this is almost certainly going to be another dry blast for us. Oh well, this winter was going on my sh*t list anyways.

I can't tell if you are calling this cool trough a blast, or if you are referring to the one on the 18z 11 days from now and spwculating on the moisture then... Or just being sarcastic

[ShawniganLake]

Double shot.

I think if we extrapolate out to hour 432 we could be looking at a triple blast. 

[Jesse]

Some more fairly robust backdoor cold on the long range GFS this afternoon.

Nice to see both the GFS and Euro trending this way.

[BLI snowman]

I can't tell if you are calling this cool trough a blast, or if you are referring to the one on the 18z 11 days from now and spwculating on the moisture then... Or just being sarcastic

 

I'll let you know after I look at Brett Anderson's latest maps.

[Timmy]

Nice to see both the GFS and Euro trending this way.

I can't remember the last time I have seen -20 850mb temps here even in the long range.

[BLI snowman]

A record cold February would be a kind of fun way to f*ck with everyone who thinks they can long range forecast.

[Jesse]

A record cold February would be a kind of fun way to f*ck with everyone who thinks they can long range forecast.

 

It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen.

 

Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole.

[Timmy]

On a more realistic note, even the rpm is showing 1-2" for me this weekend. Fwiw it showed the same late December when I got 8". Wrf is more bullish around 4"

[Timmy]

It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen.

 

Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole.

Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that.

[High Desert Mat]

Just as I thought, major outlier. Our hopes will come crashing down with the 00z tonight. Would be pretty sweet to see a trend start though.

[Jesse]

Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that.

 

Lol. Maybe I shouldn't even look at it. I haven't had time to check it yet.

 

Will be interesting to see if it has ensemble support. The EURO ensembles seemed to not be as bullish about digging energy down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Although granted, it's unusual for the mean to pick up on those sorts of finer details at that range.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that.

Pretty easy to shoot your wad when all we really have had the last two winters is bad case of blue balls. 

[ShawniganLake]

Lol. Maybe I shouldn't even look at it. I haven't had time to check it yet.

 

Will be interesting to see if it has ensemble support. The EURO ensembles seemed to not be as bullish about digging energy down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Although granted, it's unusual for the mean to pick up on those sorts of finer details at that range.

The ensemble was actually better than I would have expected.  Several pretty chilly members. 

[Deweydog]

NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire month of February.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles show the operational being a cold outlier, but there are actually a handful of members that look close to as chilly for that range. Mean is also below average in the LR now, colder than it was for the 12Z.

[Jesse]

NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire month of February.

 

February 2003 redux?

 

Things got close to being pretty good a few times that month!

[Timmy]

The ensemble was actually better than I would have expected.  Several pretty chilly members.

 

With the amplified pattern ensembles may be missleading, as the charts that show 850mb temps don't show what is happening to the east. It may be more telling to look at one for Spokane or somewhere to our east. Because even if that ridge is further east than on the 18z, it would still be much colder than the 850 temps would show with far colder air to the east and offshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen.

 

Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole.

 

That's the point. Knowing that the weather will occasionally do whatever it wants for no apparent rhyme or reason is an enjoyable thought. 

[Timmy]

18z ensembles show the operational being a cold outlier, but there are actually a handful of members that look close to as chilly for that range. Mean is also below average in the LR now, colder than it was for the 12Z.

Can't expect too much agreement that far out.

[Timmy]

What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February?

[Jesse]

What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February?

 

Highs 50-55 lows 0-5 in North Bend.

 

Sun angle.

[Deweydog]

What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February?

Cold.

[Timmy]

Highs 50-55 lows 0-5 in North Bend.

 

Sun angle.

Sure is a dream killer this far removed from the solstice.

[Jesse]

Cold.

 

Like bulbs retreating back into the ground cold?