Tom Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Models have come into agreement on a wave developing along a powerful arctic front that will swing through the northern Plains and dive down through the Plains/Midwest region later this weekend. There should be enough lift/convergence to fluff up some decent snows in E NE/IA/N MO and stretching into parts of IL. 12z GGEM is a bit wetter....ratios should be easily 15:1 or 20:1 or higher during this event... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS needs to pick this system up and move it east but still give KC some snow because I feel bad for winterfreak lol. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 nam is farther east then gem/gfs although the gfs has shifted east the last 2 runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Well, the NAM "Has the right idea" Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 here is the 00z gfs and 06 gfs for comparison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely worth watching these waves out ahead of the really cold air. Seen some pretty decent thumps of snow before Arctic air arrives before. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 The one after this on Tuesday night looks very interesting. Paints 5+ imby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 All models are increasing qpf for this event in and around the DSM area. Very few media outlets are even mentioning the chance of snow Sat Pm into Sun Am. As mentioned, this will be wind whipped with temps either side of 0F. This is going to catch many people off guard (ie. the warming channel has 0% chane of snow for the period). Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 All models are increasing qpf for this event in and around the DSM area. Very few media outlets are even mentioning the chance of snow Sat Pm into Sun Am. As mentioned, this will be wind whipped with temps either side of 0F. This is going to catch many people off guard (ie. the warming channel has 0% chane of snow for the period).Link to warming channel website? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Accu weather has 1-3" of snow for my area. The only weather media outlet that has really a chance for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 What's Euro showing for this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 DMX saying 20:1 ratios likely. THUS EVEN THOUGH QPF IS LESSTHEN A TENTH...SNOW RATIOS MAY EXCEED 20/1 PRODUCING AN INCH ORTWO OF FLUFFY ACCUMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STORMLAKE...AMES...OSKALOOSA LINE. WHAT PEOPLE WAKE UP TO SUN MORNINGMAY BE A TAD LESS HOWEVER DUE TO COMPACTION. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 a slight shift east would make me happy, but this is showing about .1" of qpf which would probably be 1.5-2" for my area. Some places in Iowa I think weill get 3 or 4" out of this. A very high ratio fluffy event looks on order. http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2016011500/iowa/nam_total_precip_iowa_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd be happy with 1" if it can hold together out this way! Snow cover took a beating today as the sun nuked the fresh "fluff" from the previous Clipper. Hope the cloud cover can come together to relax the snow melt tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 I will post this in a couple of topics as it pertains to one of the tie breakers in the winter snow fall contest OK as Grand Rapids is expected to get rain today and thus no snow fall here is the daily total snow fall as recorded at the airport. I do not know how you plan to separate the system snows from the lake effect but here is what we received 1/14 t 1/13 1.9” 1/12 4.7” 1/11 2.6” 1/10 2.1” Total this period 11.3” To help break down the lake effect from system snow I looked at Milwaukee for the same dates and here is their totals 1/14 0 1/13 0.6 1/12 t 1/11 1.6 1/10 t Total 2.2” Giving Grand Rapids 9.1” of lake effect for this event. Another event will start on Saturday BTW here at my house the snow cover this AM is now down to 8" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 here is the 12z rgem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 high res canadian qpf (got it from facebook from Jim) EDIT: this was from overnight run, but shows farther west then nam. Very sharp cutoff for lancaster county Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 I could see some intense banding setting up somewhere in E NE/W IA with this type of situation. Should be an exciting period of snowfall with temps being extremely low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is it finished running? That's a sharp cutoff on the east side. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is it finished running? That's a sharp cutoff on the east side.that was from the overnight run so yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 it would be interesting if anyone had access to the high res canadian 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z gfs appears farther west then last run as well, not by much, but every little bit helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 just had the first snow shower come through here, was pretty but didnt add up to anything edit:snowing again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 It seems like the models especially the GFS has reduced the amounts a bit. Might be hard to get more than an inch out of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 hrrr has been shifting snow snow remember this is a 10:1 ratio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hopefully we can get a couple inches out of this clipper it make it intresting on how far below zero sunday night if we could get a decent Snow cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Tuesday storm may be decent if it all plays out right with temps in the teens to lower 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 This clipper keeps getting drier and drier every run. I wouldn't bet on much snow. Tuesday looks like it could bring widespread snow. Many areas getting an inch with higher areas in the south and west maybe up to 4" in Iowa. It weakens as it heads east though on lost models. The ggem is the only one that brings in decent moisture into e Iowa. If the ggem is on to something we could get 2-3" in the Iowa city area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think it's going to be a close call for OMA. Recent model runs and radar sure seem to be signaling more snow south and west of the metro. There was a decent amount of dry air with the initial wave as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 My grid forecast has been dropped to less than one inch for tonight when it was 2-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 @NEJeremy, are you in Omaha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 LNK getting some good returns now...how's the snow flying around in town??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Light snow in lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Moderate snow south just south of lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Came down pretty good here for several minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Solid inch to inch and a half at my brother's house near the mall in Lincoln according to him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Solid 2" here in Shelby, maybe a little more. Pretty crazy how fluffy and dry this snow is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Heavier snow has definitely set up south of Omaha. Boo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 @NEJeremy, are you in Omaha?Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yea Lincoln and down to the south are doing pretty good with this little event. If it's going to be this cold it is still nice to have a some snow around so can't complain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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