Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 So its the GFS/EURO vs GGEM at this stage of the game...I'm noticing on the Euro the HP is getting stronger and colder each run forcing more interaction earlier on as the storm develops on the lee side of the Rockies. If the HP is to continue getting stronger, I'd suspect it to force south in future runs. The model is seeing more energy bundling together by 00z Feb 2nd comparing it to previous runs which is a better sign for a wound up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 First night of 00z runs in the bank...onto many more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Can we please just lock this in now? Nebraska is in desperate need of a widespread spread the wealth type snowstorm. Been years since we've had one.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 As previously mentioned by someone, weather forecast offices starting to pay attention. Glad this separate thread was started. Let's spread the wealth with this storm. From DMX discussion: . DECENT MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. MODEL QPF IS SUGGESTING A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. IF ALL OF IT FALLS AS SNOW AND IF ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO INCREASE SNOW RATIOS THIS COULD BE A RATHER INTERESTING SYSTEM AND SNOWFALL EVENT. THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AT THIS POINT SINCE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND MANY DETAILS. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 6z gfs is pretty much the same as 0z Showing 24-30 in Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 On his blog this morning, Gary Lezak is expecting the storm to be further south than what the models are showing which would fit better with the LRC according to him. A southward shift would be good for me, but I guess we'll see... 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 oax .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL A LONG WAY OUTTHOUGH...A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT LAKESFRIDAY AND COULD AFFECT AREAS TOWARD SIOUX CITY...HOWEVER LOOKSMAINLY DRY LOCALLY. A STRONG 130KT JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFICNORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MADE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINSTOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EC HAS STRONG WARMING WITH RIPPLE INTHE FLOW AND A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG ANDNORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ATROUGH HAS MOVED ONSHORE.MONDAY AND ON GROUNDHOG`S DAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIALSTORM TRACKING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THISWEATHER SYSTEM COULD HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION...BEFORE IT TURNS TOALL SNOW. THE 00Z LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THEPOTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SINCE THEORIGINS OF THE STORM ARE STILL SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES OFF THEWEST COAST AND WILL NOT COME ONSHORE UNTIL SUNDAY...IT IS STILL ALONG WAYS OUT AND THE EVOLUTION CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 gid BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET A BIT MORE TRICKY ASZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STEER A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCESACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHTRAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE A PRECURSOR TO A MUCH MORE POTENTIALLYIMPACTFUL WINTER STORM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.WHILE IT IS STILL FAR TO EARLY TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATIONAND INTENSITY OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...MODELS ARE COMING INTOAGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT ATLEAST A PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THEUNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...LATEST PLUMES INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTSPREAD FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH SOMESOLUTIONS TAKING THIS STORM FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING ONLY LIGHTSNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS EXPLODE THESYSTEM OVER THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERATING OVER ANINCH OF OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOODOF A SYSTEM IMPACTING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA NEXTMONDAY OR TUESDAY...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK ANDINTENSITY...DECIDED TO TONE DOWN LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCESGIVEN IN BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.THAT SAID...THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH...AS IT HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCALAREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 06 gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I hate the GFS consistancy NW. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I hate the GFS consistancy NW.looks more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Can we please just lock this in now? Nebraska is in desperate need of a widespread spread the wealth type snowstorm. Been years since we've had one.. Just wish most of the snow we have on the ground now wasn't going to melt in the next few days, we have a really nice base now.Highs forecast to be above freezing from tomorrow until this storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 here is the lol model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 00Z EPS/Control...last night's 00z EPS seems to dig the storm farther south into TX/E OK before turning the corner. A little different trend, which doesn't necessarily change things for the Plains, but more out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 00z GGEM MSLP mean...the most SE solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 a bit of spread on the euro, but thats expected. Ensemble mean is less then i would expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 a bit of spread on the euro, but thats expected. Ensemble mean is less then i would expectIndeed, most members seem to have a good handle on the location near the TX Panhandle region...then it gets a little bit more uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The battle between Jim Flowers and Gary Lezak...haha...Here is Gary Lezak's take... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Its all guessing right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I remember tracking the Jan 9th/10th system and the models were having trouble trying to figure out what to do with the gulf energy and the storm ended up having 2 separate pieces that never actually phased until much later near the OV. I don't expect that to happen this time. However, having said that, I want to see if the Euro focuses more on the southern energy it is leaving behind near the Gulf or if the northern piece in the southern Plains ends up pulling it farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The battle between Jim Flowers and Gary Lezak...haha...Here is Gary Lezak's take... http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/5.jpgno image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 no image Fixed...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The battle between Jim Flowers and Gary Lezak...haha...Here is Gary Lezak's take...i would take that, but slightly farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gary is getting desperate. Not really confident myself that this gives us a major snow maker. I like the boldness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 That GFS 6z run would give Northern IL flooding rains. Just a ton of moisture with this system and would hate for it to be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gfs needs to correct it's self push it east more as of now eastern Iowa gets the shaft while rest of Iowa gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Just to go over the known bias with the models. The Euro usually does not eject all the energy out in 1 piece and has to correct itself and the GFS usually ejects it out too quick. The Gem I think is usually starts out as the northern outliner but then eventually comes into line with the others. The Nam is the Nam but I love to see it's overblown qpf on storms. The DGEX is my favorite...enough said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Here is an excerpt from the WPC with regards to our storm: THE CHALLENGE --- FOR DAYS 5-7 --- APPEARS TO BE 'GAGING' THEFINAL TRAJECTORIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING THECONTINENTAL DIVIDE --- WITH EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OFTHE ENERGY THROUGH TIME---STARTING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVECRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON/JUST AFTER DAY 3 THATBEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 4-5 WITH A PACIFICSURFACE HIGH IN TOW (BEHIND IT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gary is getting desperate. Not really confident myself that this gives us a major snow maker. I like the boldness.I agree to some degree. This is where his passion may cloud his judgement. It can go both ways with Jim Flowers as well. Yesterday his thoughts on the northern piece being to strong and deflecting the storm south were plausible. Last night's Euro run had the northern piece even stronger and the storm shifted NW. So in this mornings video, he has found "reasoning" or "excuses" as to why that run may make sense. You know, it's the weather and it will do what it wants to do. I like hearing both sides to the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gary's reasoning makes more sense with respect to having the storm dig farther south before ejecting NE towards the Lakes. In both cycles, without any blocking whatsoever, the storm managed to dig deep into the 4 corners and into TX. Now, why in the world would it take a more northerly track in early Feb??? If there is no shift in that evolution by Thursday, then I would expect a northerly track. Until then, this energy is wayy out in the Pacific NW of Hawaii where data is scarce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 So in your guiy's opinion where do you think this will go? NW and give I35 east and south of hwy20 the shaft or take SE and be more of a spread the wealth type of storm? 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Here is an excerpt from the WPC with regards to our storm: THE CHALLENGE --- FOR DAYS 5-7 --- APPEARS TO BE 'GAGING' THEFINAL TRAJECTORIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING THECONTINENTAL DIVIDE --- WITH EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OFTHE ENERGY THROUGH TIME---STARTING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVECRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON/JUST AFTER DAY 3 THATBEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 4-5 WITH A PACIFICSURFACE HIGH IN TOW (BEHIND IT).That NW PAC wave is also a very key component to the overall storm track. It won't be fully sampled till about Fri/Sat which drags the cold front across the central CONUS and ends up becoming the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Posted that right after Tom... So I didn't see his post lol 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gary's reasoning makes more sense with respect to having the storm dig farther south before ejecting NE towards the Lakes. In both cycles, without any blocking whatsoever, the storm managed to dig deep into the 4 corners and into TX. Now, why in the world would it take a more northerly track in early Feb??? If there is no shift in that evolution by Thursday, then I would expect a northerly track. Until then, this energy is wayy out in the Pacific NW of Hawaii where data is scarce.Agree, the operational models will have a hard time determining the track of this system and will only be partially known by Friday and even then I believe the models will not be in any agreement. The only known at this time is this will be a powerhouse system with seveve on one side and very heavy snow on the other and possible ice mixed in some locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 WPC Day 7 surface map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 For this GFS run I still think GFS will not dig the low very deeps and eject it over the upper ms valley. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 WPC Day 7 surface mapLooks like the 00z EPS from last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Looks like the 00z EPS from last night..They seem to be liking the southern route for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 here is the lol modelThe DGEX nailed the area of heavy snow in the northeast pretty far out in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 touch south here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts