GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Tom]

That defo band is going to be one hellova show. Whoever gets underneath it, will see the sky puking snow.

[Iowa2015]

Once this storm comes ashore I expect we see a shift S.E & northern Missouri Eastern Iowa up through Chicago  in the prime location for the jackpot Snow totals.

[Jaycee]

That defo band is going to be one hellova show. Whoever gets underneath it, will see the sky puking snow.

 

 

Somebody will definitely be lucky enough to see thundersnow out of this. I think that Gabel and Clint/CentralNeb's area will be the winners when all said and done. Though I think most of us will end up with similar amounts out here, which is awesome to say because that doesn't usually happen!

[WBadgersW]

Once this storm comes ashore I expect we see a shift S.E & northern Missouri Eastern Iowa up through Chicago  in the prime location for the jackpot Snow totals.

 

I can see a SE shift, but nothing that drastic. What makes you think it is going to shift that much?

[gosaints]

I can see a SE shift, but nothing that drastic. What makes you think it is going to shift that much?

He lives there. Could happen but.if it does it will be much weaker than.currently modeled

[Money]

Gotta love snow weenies

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/zD1JBVj.png

[Geos]

Did the euro track over chicago or more towards Milwaukee?

 

Towards Chicago. Low is a strung out mess though. Starts to occlude as it approaches i-80

 

The EURO should have more snow on the front end according to temperature profiles and moisture returns before 81 hours here.

[Money]

Nam coming in colder so far

[Geos]

For anyone who follows Tom Skilling or just wants to read something well written about tracking storm for multiple days. This is an excellent read.

It needed to be said ~

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/heres-why-run-to-run-gyrations-in-computer-model-storm-track-forecasts-are-granted-more-importance-than-should-be-the-case

[bud2380]

NAM a smidge north from the 12z run.

[Geos]

More cold air over northern KS & MO on this run.

Low is tucked back into NM a bit further this run.

 

[Money]

Def colder than 12z through 60

[TakemetoMontana]

Need that cold air. Maryville Mo literally 15 miles south of heavy snow line

[Geos]

Whoah - deformation band hits N IL for awhile.

[hlcater]

Heck the GFS wouldn't even be that bad if it were 3 degrees colder.

[bud2380]

NAM storm total.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/QHzIcuA.gif

[Geos]

There should be more in N IL^. It's around 30° here.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Did the 18z nam come north ever so slightly? Thanks I am on my phone can't check until later

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow. Nws Hastings has just issued a winter storm watch. I will have to check on this.

[WBadgersW]

Interesting, Nam looks to be all snow here

[hlcater]

Did the 18z nam come north ever so slightly? Thanks I am on my phone can't check until later

I don't think so 

 

Here's the snow totals

 

12Z

. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160130/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

18Z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160130/18Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Snowlover76]

Wow. Nws Hastings has just issued a winter storm watch. I will have to check on this.

yea they did, surprised its only a WSW

[CentralNebWeather]

Probably could upgrade tomorrow if needed.  Their information sure screams Blizzard Watch if winds were to go up more.  They mention gusts to 40 sustained 25-30 which is just below criteria.  

 

 

NWS Hastings NE:

 

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Monday evening through
Tuesday evening.

* Impact... heavy snow and strong northerly winds will result in
poor visibilities and hazardous driving conditions.

* Timing... snowfall is expected to develop Monday
evening... peaking in intensity during the daytime hours Tuesday.

* Snowfall accumulation... between 6 and 12 inches of snowfall is
possible.

* Winds... sustained northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph... gusting to
40 mph... are expected Tuesday.

* Uncertainty... the track of this system will have a significant
impact on snowfall totals. While the exact location of the
heaviest snow is still uncertain... confidence in increasing that
at least portions of the local area will see impactful snow and
blowing snow on Tuesday.

[Money]

Interesting that the nam is the weaker/south model typically it has a known bias to be too amped in the long range

[GDR]

I don't think so

 

Here's the snow totals

 

12Z

. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160130/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

18Z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160130/18Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

looks like central Iowa gets slammed on the 18z

[Geos]

Congrats on the watch guys.

 

The NAM keeps the wave open.

[Tom]

Bow down to the NAM??? Didn't all the other models cave in towards the NAM at this range for the EC Blizzard??? Higher rez model would do better picking up on colder air.

[Money]

Bow down to the NAM??? Didn't all the other models cave in towards the NAM at this range for the EC Blizzard??? Higher rez model would do better picking up on colder air.

Don't do this to yourself tom

[CentralNebWeather]

Have already noticed last night and today that people are really stocking up at the grocery stores.  My wife mentioned how little milk was in the cooler at the store and people were asking me today at my son's 4th grade basketball game what I thought. I said from information I have gathered on weatherforums it is becoming more and more likely that we will be impacted but not yet sure how much, though it could be significant.  The watch will get more people alert.  If upgraded to Blizzard Watch tomorrow this area will get crazy.

[Geos]

Bow down to the NAM??? Didn't all the other models cave in towards the NAM at this range for the EC Blizzard??? Higher rez model would do better picking up on colder air.

 

I remember is sniffed out the northward advance of the heavier snow tallies into PA, NJ, Long Island etc.

 

4km NAM is slightly stronger with the lead wave. Eventually gets it down to 990mb towards Montreal. Need that to bomb out earlier.

 

[Snowlover76]

Have already noticed last night and today that people are really stocking up at the grocery stores.  My wife mentioned how little milk was in the cooler at the store and people were asking me today at my son's 4th grade basketball game what I thought. I said from information I have gathered on weatherforums it is becoming more and more likely that we will be impacted but not yet sure how much, though it could be significant.  The watch will get more people alert.  If upgraded to Blizzard Watch tomorrow this area will get crazy.

all I need is a case of beer.  

[Tom]

Don't do this to yourself tom

Hey, I'm only stating a fact about how the NAM handled the EC Blizzard at this range. It was the only model that picked up on the heavy snow band shifting north into NYC. Just saying. Relax. Your still going to get snow.

[Money]

Hey, I'm only stating a fact about how the NAM handle the EC Blizzard at this range. It was the only model that picked up on the heavy snow band shifting north into NYC. Just saying. Relax. Your still going to get snow.

I am relaxed look how it bowed down to the other models with the 1st wave and how to completely changed in one run

 

Nam is an awful model when it's in it's range it's usually completely useless when it's 84 hours out

[CentralNebWeather]

Already in the fridge snowlover76

[Tom]

I am relaxed look how it bowed down to the other models with the 1st wave and how to completely changed in one run

 

Nam is an awful model when it's in it's range it's usually completely useless when it's 84 hours out

I get it...I'm fully aware of the models historical inaccuracies at this range, but at times it can score a coupe. GGEM nearly places a very similar swath of snow as the NAM. So it has some model consesnsus. Just making observations and not drawing any conclusions.

[Tom]

Already in the fridge snowlover76

I'd have my bottle of Kettle in the freezer and splash it with some club soda...ahhh, the days when I used to drink more often.

[Geos]

Another thing that will be critical will be how far south the cold air will travel along the Front Range before the low kicks out.

Right now about Springer, NM.

 

[Snowlover76]

I'd have my bottle of Kettle in the freezer and splash it with some club soda...ahhh, the days when I used to drink more often.

I'm trying to lose weight right now so I cut out beer and pop, but screw it for next week.  I can cheat a little for a once a year snowstorm. 

[jcwxguy]

Winter storm watch for central amd eastern Nebraska