GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[GDR]

Nebraska is going to get a bomb dropped on it!!

[jcwxguy]

ill have it once it reaches that point 

[NEJeremy]

my only "complaint" at this point would be how fast this thing is moving. wish it would snow for 36 hours like it did on the east coast last week, than we'd be looking at some 2 foot totals!

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks jcwxguy

[jcwxguy]

.

[Money]

need a 30 mile shift south on both gfs and euro lol

[Grizzcoat]

so the Euro went  SE about 20-40 miles from 00Z

 

00z Euro

[GDR]

my only "complaint" at this point would be how fast this thing is moving. wish it would snow for 36 hours like it did on the east coast last week, than we'd be looking at some 2 foot totals!

not asking for to much?

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            12Z JAN30

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SAT 12Z 30-JAN  -1.8     6.1    1005      90      53    0.00     557     552    

SAT 18Z 30-JAN   9.8     7.9    1004      53      30    0.00     557     554    

SUN 00Z 31-JAN   7.3     7.8    1001      72      25    0.00     555     554    

SUN 06Z 31-JAN   2.3     3.9    1002      91      54    0.01     552     550    

SUN 12Z 31-JAN   2.3     0.8    1006      89      85    0.03     549     544    

SUN 18Z 31-JAN   7.0    -0.3    1009      61      41    0.01     548     540    

MON 00Z 01-FEB                                                                  

MON 06Z 01-FEB  -1.1    -0.5    1015      80      27             550     538    

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.4    -0.7    1017      79      32    0.00     550     537    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.0    -1.4    1017      62      73    0.00     550     536    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.1    -2.8    1014      76      97    0.02     549     537    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.4    -4.0    1015      93     100    0.13     549     537    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.9    -5.3    1008      88      99    0.21     544     537    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.7    -7.0    1005      93      98    0.44     534     530    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.0    -8.6    1008      89      98    0.23     532     526    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.6    -8.9    1016      82      95    0.04     536     523    
 
 

 

[bud2380]

the only snow for Iowa city/Cedar Rapids falls between 6am and noon Tuesday and then warmer air draws in.

 

http://i.imgur.com/0hFep5G.png

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444
 

                                            12Z JAN30

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.8    -3.1    1015      66      84    0.00     548     535    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.4    -4.8    1017      86      99    0.04     547     534    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -3.6    -5.5    1012      87     100    0.22     542     533    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.5    -6.5    1009      90     100    0.45     535     528    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.9    -8.7    1011      85      99    0.25     533     524    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.6    -9.4    1017      81      82    0.02     536     523    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -8.7    -8.9    1022      77      40    0.00     538     521    
 
 
 
 

 

[indianajohn]

It would be cool if mother nature says " you think you knew me?" and throws a complete curve ball and takes this the oppoiste direction LOL!

[NEJeremy]

not asking for to much?

go troll somewhere else

[Money]

Kosh when you got time?

 

Thanks jcw

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981
 

                                            12Z JAN30

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 
 

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.3    -3.8    1017      87     100    0.05     549     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.6    -4.5    1010      82     100    0.14     545     537    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.7    -6.1    1004      92      94    0.49     536     533    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -2.4    -8.0    1006      88      97    0.23     532     527    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.1    -8.5    1013      83      92    0.04     534     524    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -7.5    -9.0    1020      79      46    0.00     538     522    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -7.9    -9.0    1027      73      26    0.00     541     520    

THU 00Z 04-FEB -10.2    -8.9    1028      84      52    0.00     541     519    
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

Kosh when you got time?

 

Thanks jcw

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807                                            12Z JAN30                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.1    -4.9    1021      91      21    0.00     549     533    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -4.2    1017      93      98    0.01     550     536    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.1    -5.6    1007      92     100    0.30     546     541    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -0.9    -3.4     998      94      27    0.25     534     536    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -8.7    1002      87      92    0.08     528     526    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -3.5   -10.3    1011      70      68    0.01     532     523    THU 00Z 04-FEB  -4.4   -13.9    1019      73      14    0.00     535     520                                                       

                                                               shows the 700mb dry air punch, which is what we need to keep an eye on 

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965
 

                                            12Z JAN30

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -3.6    1018      89      99    0.02     551     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.2    -3.5    1011      82     100    0.06     549     540    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.1    -5.2    1004      91      99    0.50     544     541    

WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.1    -1.9     999      95      58    0.16     533     534    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.3    -7.5    1004      87      94    0.08     531     528    
 

 

[Money]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807

                                            12Z JAN30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.1    -4.9    1021      91      21    0.00     549     533    
TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -4.2    1017      93      98    0.01     550     536    
WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.1    -5.6    1007      92     100    0.30     546     541    
WED 06Z 03-FEB  -0.9    -3.4     998      94      27    0.25     534     536    
WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -8.7    1002      87      92    0.08     528     526    
WED 18Z 03-FEB  -3.5   -10.3    1011      70      68    0.01     532     523    
THU 00Z 04-FEB  -4.4   -13.9    1019      73      14    0.00     535     520    
                                                   

850's look plenty cold enough for snow

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MKE    LAT=  42.95 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   692
 

                                            12Z JAN30

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.6    1020      94      88    0.00     552     537    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.1    -2.6    1015      85      92    0.03     553     541    

WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.0    -1.4    1004      90      95    0.37     550     546    

WED 06Z 03-FEB   1.4     4.3     995      96      27    0.22     539     543    

WED 12Z 03-FEB   0.4    -3.8     999      94      90    0.02     531     533    
 
 
 

 

 

[hlcater]

JC does that work for KVTI? its a small airport but close to me.

[Money]

Did the euro track over chicago or more towards Milwaukee?

[Snowlover76]

Why is the Euro usually the driest of all the models? Just in general it always seems to have less precip 

[jcwxguy]

JC does that work for KVTI? its a small airport but close to me.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: VTI    LAT=  42.22 LON=  -92.02 ELE=   846                                            12Z JAN30                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.8    -2.0    1018      87      20    0.00     549     535    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.1    -2.6    1019      92      72    0.01     551     535    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.3    -2.6    1015      88      97    0.02     550     539    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.2    -4.6    1006      88     100    0.37     548     543    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.4     0.4     998      92      37    0.22     536     537    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -0.8    -4.6     999      92      81    0.09     530     531    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -4.7    -9.0    1009      85      66    0.01     533     526    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -6.8    -9.6    1020      82      27    0.00     538     523    

[Hawkeye]

Does weatherbell have the parallel gfs maps?

[jcwxguy]

Does weatherbell have the parallel gfs maps?

not that iv'e seen (free trial)

[hlcater]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: VTI    LAT=  42.22 LON=  -92.02 ELE=   846                                            12Z JAN30                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.4     0.4     998      92      37    0.22     536     537    

 

 

Well, Euro has cold rain, that's disappointing.

[bud2380]

UK

 

http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_SFC_SLP_72HR.gif

[Money]

Jcw where does the low track on the euro?

[bud2380]

Euro goes from SE Kansas to Kansas City to far NE Missouri to Chicago. 

[bud2380]

Le French model. 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

[bud2380]

SREF

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f087.gif

[GDR]

go troll somewhere else

move troll get out the way

[WeatherCrossing]

Here are the latest GFS and NAM tracks....there are still some large differences.  

[Grizzcoat]

Why is the Euro usually the driest of all the models? Just in general it always seems to have less precip

 

Because it's usually the most realistic. Usually. And usually pans out that way. Usually.

[GDR]

What if the Canadian is right, it's been the most consistent.

[Grizzcoat]

Here are the latest GFS and NAM tracks....there are still some large differences.  

GFSvsNAM.png

Just playing with your site on phone,,,, way cool!!

[gabel23]

Well guys, not to jinx it but it looks like we are on our way for one of the biggest storms we have seen in over 6 years (as mentioned by Hastings NWS). I'm liking the set up, and by tonight if the 00z runs show the same as the 12z then I'm feeling really good. I would think watches start getting put out today for parts of Kansas and possibly Nebraska. Exciting times for us are a coming! Here is the updated QPF by the HPC.....central Neb and Clint are sitting in a really nice spot! 

 

 

Here is this mornings disco about the upcoming storm:

 

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF ATTENTION WAS GIVEN TO THE

POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY-LIKELY
TO DEAL SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AT-LEAST-MUCH OF THE CWA
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN THE
FORM OF SNOW/STRONG WINDS. FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECASTER...THIS
HAS BEEN THE FIRST SHIFT ACTUALLY DEALING WITH THIS WINTER STORM
AND THUS DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR HOW THINGS HAVE LOOKED UP
UNTIL NOW. BUT THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS OF
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL NORTHWARD AT LEAST 50 MILES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...THUS
PUTTING THE CWA SQUARELY IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF WHAT COULD BE (KEY
WORD COULD) THE OVERALL-MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT SINCE THE
FEB. 20-21, 2013 STORM THAT DUMPED GENERALLY 6-18" ACROSS THE CWA
(HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH). PUT ANOTHER WAY...AT LEAST AT THIS
DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR WORST WINTER
STORM SNOW-WISE IN AT LEAST ROUGHLY 3 YEARS (FOR THE CWA AS A
WHOLE)...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 6 YEARS WHEN FACTORING IN THE
EFFECTS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING.

[Geos]

Any thoughts on lake enhancement for SE Wisconsin?

 

Unless your far north, probably not.

[gosaints]

Because it's usually the most realistic. Usually. And usually pans out that way. Usually.

For sure. At times it bumps up qpf after full.sampling takes place.

[Jaycee]

What if the Canadian is right, it's been the most consistent.

Right lol... except warm air is underdone, i think we'll get a nice cold rain, embedded thunderstorms lol congrats fargo