GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Scott26]

I haven't had time to post at all, but I have been tracking this storm since it showed up on the models in fantasy land. If you are in Eastern Nebraska you don't have anything to worry about. The models are coming to an consensus and any shift, south or north, will likely only be 25-50 miles which won't be a problem. Things are looking good over here too in Central Iowa with the models consistently showing me in some of the highest snow totals. With this kind of pressure gradient and how the winds mix to the surface so effectively I wouldn't be surprised if a Blizzard Watch is issued from Eastern Nebraska into Iowa today or tomorrow.

[Geos]

GGEM caving in towards the GFS/EURO now...odds are stacking up against us in Chitown...I'm finally happy Nebraskan's will enjoy a powerful storm.  Now I'll get to see what it feels like to be on the sidelines rooting for Nebraska to break some daily snowfall records!

 

Not looking good for N IL for sure. But it is still 80+ hours away. I think Milwaukee could still pull this one off or at least salvage enough to get a snow cover.

 

It is very weird the NAM isn't amped up and I'm wondering if it is seeing something the other models are not.

[winterfreak]

We had our GHD storm already, now nature needs to make those happy to the N/NW I guess. Can't win 'em all...this is going to be one hellova storm out in the Plains/Midwest though. Gotta appreciate the meteorology in that.

We certainly got it good with the first in the trilogy. Still been two winters since we've had anything decent. Good for NE to finally get theirs.

[Money]

Not sure I can buy the snow band being so far south then.  What happened to the effects of a positive PNA?  It is still projected to be slightly positive in a few days.  I wouldn't expect a Western Lakes Cutter with those indices.

 

Also looks like most of the snow from Madison east to Milwaukee is from a front end thump before the low tracks overhead. GFS was trying to show this as well but was a degree too warm.

[Iowa2015]

Still  thinking  this  will  shift  S.E storm still off shore

[Money]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160130/12Z/f084/pratetypeconus.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160130/12Z/f090/pratetypeconus.png

[Money]

Total:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160130/12Z/f102/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

In the end with the sleet storm, all models but the HRRR and the RGEM torched the mid levels too quickly in N IL and S WI and were saying a prolonged period of rain after some freezing rain. In fact some models had freezing rain primarily instead of sleet and snow. We all thought the CMC was nuts by putting down 2-3" of sleet, but that was what happened. Forecasters in Milwaukee up until early afternoon where calling for a change to rain in far southeast WI up to MKE. That never happened and instead it just continued to sleet and snow for the rest of the day.

 

Again we just don't know enough yet, since the storm isn't even organized. There is going to be some surprises with this storm, there is with every one.

[Tom]

What's your thoughts for up here? Gfs with a huge graident over the county and ggem with 10-12

Your gonna be riding the edge...GGEM has a known bias to be colder than the other models.  However, your snow cover may help you out.  I'd wait till Sunday's model runs to be comfortable.  A lot of the Euro members cut the low just south of MKE now which is a pretty big shift.

[jcwxguy]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[Money]

Wide variety of gfs solutions it looks like compared to previous runs

[Money]

Looks like 10-11 keep the surface low around Chicago and the other half send it through southern wi

[hlcater]

Looks like 10-11 keep the surface low around Chicago and the other half send it through southern wi

1/2 and 1/2 fantastic. That'll be a headache for the NWS.

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/u8NQco4.gif

[Money]

http://i.imgur.com/u8NQco4.gif

Doesn't look too bad

[GDR]

Still thinking this will shift S.E storm still off shore

now that is wish casting

[Geos]

To show what the GEFS standard deviation is. Still high in the Midwest.

 

 

 

 

[jlp]

I happen to think MIlwaukee is still in the game. I can't remember the last time a low passed right threw SE Wisconsin on a system of this scale.

[hlcater]

WPC still riding the south train on their new maps

[minnieweather]

I happen to think MIlwaukee is still in the game. I can't remember the last time a low passed right threw SE Wisconsin on a system of this scale.

Yeah, now that you mention it, I can't remember either.  It always seems like with these large systems Milwaukee or Chicago get hit pretty hard.  

[GDR]

[WBadgersW]

I happen to think MIlwaukee is still in the game. I can't remember the last time a low passed right threw SE Wisconsin on a system of this scale.

I can't remember recent specific dates, but I know some have in the past couple years (not many though and most went through extreme Southern Kenosha). I wouldnt be shocked if by Sunday nigt/Monday we see a SE or cooling trend. Cooler/SE has definitely been a last minute trend this winter

[minnieweather]

I can't remember recent specific dates, but I know some have in the past couple years (not many though and most went through extreme Southern Kenosha). I wouldnt be shocked if by Sunday nigt/Monday we see a SE or cooling trend. Cooler/SE has definitely been a last minute trend this winter

I agree.  The good news is we are not in the bulls eye right now seen as though things tend to shift SE last minute.

[hlcater]

i don't get that Without the first wave it's going to push nw

they have a model that we cant see: the para GFS. supposedly, per MPX at least, it has been extremely consistent.

[jcwxguy]

WPC still riding the south train on their new maps

[NEJeremy]

http://i.imgur.com/u8NQco4.gif

this might be a dumb question, but is the bigger image the average of all the members it is showing or why is that one larger?

[jlp]

Any thoughts on lake enhancement for SE Wisconsin?

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160130/12Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160130/12Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160130/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[Money]

Looks nearly identical to the gfs although euro is a bit colder

[Grizzcoat]

About 7mb higher pressure in the DSM area compared to 24 hours ago at 72 hours now compared to old 96. 850 are oddly slightly warmer..

[bud2380]

This run of the Euro is virtually identical to the 00z run thru 72 hours. Only it is stronger with QPF on the back side.  Gonna be another big winner for NE and western IA.

[jcwxguy]

This run of the Euro is virtually identical to the 00z run thru 72 hours. Only it is stronger with QPF on the back side.  Gonna be another big winner for NE and western IA.

have to see where the dry air in mid levels sets up

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160130/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[Money]

Euro is east of gfs at hr 96 by quite a bit

 

Looks like it cuts through Chicago?

[bud2380]

Lincoln, NE has absolutely nothing to worry about.

[bud2380]

at 78 hours the low is over Kansas City

[CentralNebWeather]

Snowfall map off the euro when anyone has time would be greatly appreciated. Thanks for everything that this forum provides.

[jcwxguy]

Snowfall map off the euro when anyone has time would be greatly appreciated. Thanks for everything that this forum provides.

ill have it once it reaches that point