bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'd be extremely happy with this run of the NAM. But if the GFS and Euro stay much further north I'll probably discredit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I do hope Nebraska and western Iowa folks can put away a historic snowstorm for the books. Need to watch the GFS, CMC, and EURO to see how they handle the low structure. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 wow S.E trend Shocker Exactly like I said I'm a delusional snow weenie. Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 yea, the NAM is being pretty consistent with the placement of snow. As much as I'd like it to verify I'm feeling like the NAM is consistently wrong. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Toss it because of barbs rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 i would take the 18z nam over 00z nam, just in terms of amount of snow here(10 vs 6 ), but thats just the weenie in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 00z NAM doesn't even close off the low at 500mb like the other models... This..... Compare the 12z and 00z nam. The 12z has a big closed H5 low, while on the 00z run it's totally gone. Hence, the weak surface low and eastward slide. It's real tough to buy what this run is selling. 1 season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Once the NAM gets under 48 hours, then it starts getting better. Right now we're just beyond that. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Same with me. Very little in my area on 12z and a move north on 00z as I compare the maps. Still love the other models a lot better obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 NAM has to be out to lunch. A 1002mb low and six inches of snow on my doorstep. Yeah right. Don't worry NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ehh if the whats happens so be it. If thats what the wave does the nam is probably overdoing precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 wow S.E trend Shocker Exactly like I said I'm a delusional snow weenie. Ha hasoutheastern Iowa should have thrown in the towel a long time ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'm seriously thinking about taking a break from this board. There's so many snow weenies on here who have no idea what they are talking about and have emotional swings of a 16 yr old girlThink I might have to do the same tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thanks for my deleting my post, Geos (I assume it was you.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thanks for my deleting my post, Geos (I assume it was you.)No it was me, but you're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 No it was me, but you're welcome.If you read some of his earlier posts, you'd understand why I'd say that. The dude said that DC would get "light accumulations" from the blizzard last week. Then he says that this would be a KC and Chicago special earlier today without providing any meteorological data to support those asinine calls. Now he's saying that this will trend SE because of one NAM run at hour 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I get it. But doesn't mean you have to say that. Just let stuff like that go, you'll be off a lot better. It shouldn't mean anything to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 No, it wasn't me Maxim. I'm gonna see what WGN has to say about this. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 It's really not that hard to ignore the stupid posts. At least we don't have Tim the weatherman back on here talking about every storm bringing a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 It's really not that hard to ignore the stupid posts. At least we don't have Tim the weatherman back on here talking about every storm bringing a blizzard.True, but still, it makes the board look bad with all these trolls just spewing out nonsense. Completely forgot about the ignore prefs feature too... I'm sure I might have to use that at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 00z gfs has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Did someone say the b word!!!!lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 00z gfs has startedbiggest runs of the season tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 biggest runs of the season tonightYou'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 biggest runs of the season tonightNot really wave isnt on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I don't think this thing will be fully sampled for another 24 hours so more fluctuations are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 biggest runs of the season tonight i would say not until 12z tomorrow or 00z, once its been sampled fully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Appears like the lead wave is slightly stronger than 18zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f015/sfcconus.png vs http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160130/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow. I hate those TV simulated radar maps for this far out. They always mislead the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow. Not really sure why he thinks this is going to start out as all snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Appears like the lead wave is slightly stronger than 18zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f015/sfcconus.png vs http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160130/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png1 mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 1 mb strongerhence the words "appears" and "slightly". Because I'll be the first to admit I'm no expert when it comes to this and the only way to get better is watch more and more storms. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 hence the words "appears" and "slightly". Because I'll be the first to admit I'm no expert when it comes to this and the only way to get better is watch more and more storms.1mb stronger or weaker isn't really a big deal. Just noise and crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 through 36 hours http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f036/sfcconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Not really sure why he thinks this is going to start out as all snow, though. He said there will be some cold air out in front of the system. Every model is showing it. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 gut feeling is that this ends up similar to the 18, perhaps slightly NW of the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 1mb stronger or weaker isn't really a big deal. Just noise and crap. at first glance it looked like 2mb stronger to me, but that's why I post so I can get criticized about every thing that I'm doing wrong. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 through 42 hours http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f042/sfcconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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