GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[hlcater]

JC you have KVTI? 

 

ty

[Grizzcoat]

CID-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -2.7    1017      83     100    0.02     552     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.5    -3.2    1012      90      98    0.14     551     541    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.8    -0.9    1003      89      99    0.51     546     544    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.9     0.5     999      95      42    0.14     536     537    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -0.5    -4.8    1003      90      71    0.05     532     530    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -4.8    -8.7    1013      83      71    0.02     537     526 

[bud2380]

close up of wisconsin for Money.

 

http://i.imgur.com/wmLlGcR.png

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981
 

                                            00Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.3    -2.0    1017      64      69    0.00     550     537    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.6    -3.2    1014      75      94    0.02     549     538    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.9    -3.5    1014      92     100    0.08     549     538    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -5.4    1006      89     100    0.34     543     538    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -6.7    1004      92      80    0.44     534     531    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.1    -7.9    1009      87      97    0.16     533     526    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.5    -8.6    1017      81      97    0.03     537     523    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -7.8    -8.7    1023      82      42    0.00     539     522    

W
 

 

[Grizzcoat]

IOW-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.1    -2.2    1017      84     100    0.03     553     539    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.9    -3.1    1011      89      94    0.10     551     542    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.3     2.1    1002      90     100    0.52     547     546    WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.4     1.7     999      97      53    0.11     537     538    WED 06Z 03-FEB   0.1    -3.6    1002      92      74    0.03     533     531    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -8.7    1013      82      78    0.02     537     527

[ToastedRavs]

I think the increase in speed once it cuts northeast limits the insane snowfall numbers earlier run off. Still gives a good amount but really is more of an 18 hour event rather than 24 to 30

[Money]

Solid thanks bud

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965
 

                                            00Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.5    -2.2    1016      80      84    0.00     551     537    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.1    -2.9    1016      90     100    0.04     551     539    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.2    -4.7    1008      88     100    0.27     548     542    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.2    -2.9    1002      93      21    0.47     539     537    

WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.0    -3.8    1001      94      50    0.09     534     533    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.3    -7.9    1009      85      91    0.03     534     526    
 
 
 

 

[GDR]

Man now it's moving se another 50 miles se I'm out this sucks. You guys think GFS might be the outliner and this moves more se?

[Money]

 

IOW-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.1    -2.2    1017      84     100    0.03     553     539    
TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.9    -3.1    1011      89      94    0.10     551     542    
TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.3     2.1    1002      90     100    0.52     547     546    
WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.4     1.7     999      97      53    0.11     537     538    
WED 06Z 03-FEB   0.1    -3.6    1002      92      74    0.03     533     531    
WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -8.7    1013      82      78    0.02     537     527

Osh ?

[Snowlover76]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            00Z JAN31                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SUN 00Z 31-JAN   7.3     8.5    1001      72      25             554     554    SUN 06Z 31-JAN   2.6     3.3    1003      90      46    0.01     552     550    SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.9     0.1    1006      91      87    0.03     548     543    SUN 18Z 31-JAN   7.0    -1.1    1010      61      32    0.00     545     537    MON 00Z 01-FEB   3.6    -1.0    1012      65      18    0.00     548     538    MON 06Z 01-FEB  -0.7    -1.5    1015      76      25    0.00     551     538    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.1    -0.7    1016      77      43    0.00     550     538    MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.4    -1.5    1016      60      98    0.00     551     537    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.0    -3.2    1014      87      95    0.05     549     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.7    -3.9    1012      95     100    0.11     548     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.0    -6.1    1005      92     100    0.41     541     537    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.4    -6.9    1004      93      86    0.37     533     529    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.3    -8.4    1011      87      95    0.16     534     526    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -5.8    -8.9    1019      81      91    0.01     538     523    

Nice.  850's all below freezing here and ground temps are coldest for heaviest precip.  This is good for at least 10" 

[CentralNebWeather]

Even though it moved I am in a heavier snow. My local forecast for snow went up by 3 inches. I would have thought the snow would have moved farther into Kansas

[ToastedRavs]

Man now it's moving se another 50 miles se I'm out this sucks. You guys think GFS might be the outliner and this moves more se?

Where you at again? I forgot

[jcwxguy]

JC you have KVTI? 

 

ty

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: VTI    LAT=  42.22 LON=  -92.02 ELE=   846                                            00Z JAN31                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.7    -3.1    1018      87      94    0.01     551     537    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.2    -3.6    1013      90      99    0.16     550     539    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.2    -4.6    1005      90     100    0.51     545     541    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.3    -0.9    1000      92      40    0.17     535     535    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -1.4    -6.6    1004      88      83    0.07     532     529    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -6.3    -8.6    1014      84      61    0.01     536     525    

[Geos]

The 6" line is about where the GFS has it.

[bud2380]

Euro has warm surface temps throughout almost all of Iowa. If temps are truly 32-33 in many of these places that will likely cut down on accumulations.

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807
 

                                            00Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.1    -4.3    1020      92      54    0.00     550     534    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.0    -5.1    1015      92     100    0.08     549     537    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -0.2    -6.4    1005      92     100    0.45     544     540    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -1.8    -6.5    1002      92      37    0.19     534     533    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.9   -10.8    1008      84      96    0.03     529     523    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -4.5   -10.8    1016      70      66    0.01     535     523    

THU 00Z 04-FEB                                                                  

TH

 

[GDR]

Where you at again? I forgot

Ida Grove nw ia

[Money]

Euro has warm surface temps throughout almost all of Iowa. If temps are truly 32-33 in many of these places that will likely cut down on accumulations.

You guys have any snow on the ground ?

[jcwxguy]

.

[ToastedRavs]

Euro has warm surface temps throughout almost all of Iowa. If temps are truly 32-33 in many of these places that will likely cut down on accumulations.

 

At least with warmer temperatures, the snow won't blow around as much once on ground. Still going to be nasty, however

[Geos]

Dynamic cooling is not factored in well until under 24 hours to the event. Wouldn't worry about 32-33° in Iowa right now. Could easily be 30-31°.

[ToastedRavs]

 

Ida Grove nw ia[/quote

 

 

I still think you're good for 8" at least. Wouldn't want to be too much farther NW

[Snowlover76]

Euro has warm surface temps throughout almost all of Iowa. If temps are truly 32-33 in many of these places that will likely cut down on accumulations.

850's are cold enough.

[Grizzcoat]

.

12Z EURO-

[hlcater]

Money, I'm in center point (near Cedar Rapids) and we still have 1.5-2" of sleet around here if that helps. It is very slow to melt. That's for sure.

[Grizzcoat]

It appears the Euro is locked in. Only change here in C.IA was slightly more Qpf.

[bud2380]

Snow is mostly gone in north Liberty. 15 miles south of Cedar Rapids. We have spots with snow and spots with grass.

[Tom]

Bullseye SC NE/NC KS...CentralNeb might be near the epicenter of it all...35+mph winds for a good 6+ hour period look likely in NE/W IA...gusts approaching 50mph+....wild times!!!

[Geos]

A line from Milwaukee to Janesville to Iowa City stays at or below freezing during the whole storm this time.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks geos. I noticed that bullseye. Has the storm come ashore yet or when is it supposed to?

[clintbeed1993]

Thanks geos. I noticed that bullseye. Has the storm come ashore yet or when is it supposed to?

 

Storm will be coming ashore tomorrow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks

[Grizzcoat]

-http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NWE/COMP/

[Geos]

There's our tracks.

Red: 12km NAM, Yellow: 4km NAM, Green: GFS, Purple: EURO, Orange: UKMET, Blue: CMC

 

 

Only one left in WI now. 2 in IL, 2 in IN, and one tba.

[Grizzcoat]

UK Total Precip

[Grizzcoat]

[Geos]

About 4° cooler here on the EURO compared to the 12z run. 70-78 hours in the warm tongue. If the track didn't do that weird jog to the end of the lake, it would probably be cold enough for all frozen precip.

[Grizzcoat]

[Geos]

Couple JMA maps for ya.