GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

...

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings has to go with a Blizzard watch this afternoon, every model has our area getting blasted.

 

There update is usually 4 pm. Seeing all these runs they might go blizzard watch in the next hour

[Hawkeye]

So the Euro caves to the nw GFS, realizes it just can't hold back the warm surge.  I'd say it's just about towel-throwin' time for southeast Iowa.

 

I'm happy for the Nebraska folks, though.... should be a good one.

 

[jcwxguy]

Can someone post euro snowfall map for all of Nebraska. Thanks

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow that run was amazing. Just can't wait for it to arrive

[Tom]

Like I said, MKE/MSN are looking like they get shafted along with SE IA...not a fun place to be right now...I know the feeling.

[hlcater]

Yup, I'm giving up on getting more than 5" however this still looks fun from I35 westward. Hope to see some records broken over there

[bud2380]

Took about a 40 mile shift nw from 00z run. I really doubt I'll get even an inch of snow out of this. Nebraska really in the jackpot this go around. Hopefully that will appease the masses. I expect the nws will shift watches nw this afternoon in e Iowa. Probably trimming linn county at the least.

[Tom]

Wow that run was amazing. Just can't wait for it to arrive

Man, I bet your jumping for joy!  You are finally going to feel what its like to be in the epicenter of a full blown Blizzard.  Euro showing 35-45mph sustained winds in E NE!  Gust approaching 60mph!  Wow, that's gonna look pretty.

[Geos]

For those are the southern edge...

FWIW the GEM sniffed out the colder solution first; complete with accurate sleet accumulations, with the post Christmas storm. Pretty much every model over did the WAA.

 

There was a couple EURO ensemble members that had some snowfall maps that looked like the GGEM. I'm not saying this will be the end result, but I would keep the colder solutions in the back of your head.

[Tom]

Here are the 6 hour increments from Tuesday 6:00am - 6:00pm...that's a powerhouse storm...

[ToastedRavs]

The dry slot is the most worrisome factor for me.  I don't buy any of these models as concrete until after it's fully sampled tonight.  But, that's some staunch mid level drying in central and southern/SE Iowa.  Time will tell...still have a good feeling here, just gotta keep that dry air south into MO please!

[Tom]

OMA/LNK snow dome dismantled finally...I expect to see a lot of pictures and videos from you guys!

[winterfreak]

If this doesn't satisfy NE peeps nothing will.

[Tom]

12z EURO...qpf totals...some spots approaching 1.5" of liquid...fluff that up to 14:1 or 15:1 with 850's approaching -8C or lower.  The downside to maximum snowfall totals will be the high winds which will shatter snow flakes.

[CentralNebWeather]

Could it be the storm that people tell their grandkids about? In Nebraska it is always the blizzard of January 1949 or the blizzard of 1888. Why not the blizzard of February 2016?

[CentralNebWeather]

Winterfreak I feel your pain. I have a brother who lives in Shawnee Kansas that says this is the most lame winter he can remember. Hopefully the next 2 months bring more storms for your area.

[gabel23]

Could it be the storm that people tell their grandkids about? In Nebraska it is always the blizzard of January 1949 or the blizzard of 1888. Why not the blizzard of February 2016?

If this plays out the way it's looking, this could rival some other blizzards of the past. Nothing will compare to the blizzard of 1888 though, that had the snow but also the bitter cold. It went from 60's that day to -30 that night with the blizzard lasting some 36 hours. Either way this storm, again if it plays out the way the models are showing, will have a chance to rival the x mas blizzard of 2009. Fun times ahead, now if we get thundersnow things will be really interesting! My video camera will be ready to go! 

[gabel23]

12z EURO...qpf totals...some spots approaching 1.5" of liquid...fluff that up to 14:1 or 15:1 with 850's approaching -8C or lower.  The downside to maximum snowfall totals will be the high winds which will shatter snow flakes.

I always hear about that, how the winds shatter the snow flakes. In essence, that means the snow won't accumulate as quickly as it would without the wind right? 

[Madtown]

Towel tossed

[mlgamer]

Winterfreak I feel your pain. I have a brother who lives in Shawnee Kansas that says this is the most lame winter he can remember. Hopefully the next 2 months bring more storms for your area.

 

Very true.  Over here in Topeka, we've had 3.3 inches for the whole winter and we may finish with that the way things are going.

 

Some of you guys look to score big...enjoy!

[ToastedRavs]

Do people not realize it is not fully sampled  yet!?  Holy cow...what a bunch of bi polar weather enthusiasts.  Slow and steady....I'd hate to see you all in the severe season.  D**n, it's four o'clock...cap hasn't broken.  Towel thrown in.  90 minutes later...cap breaks and you miss out on a supercell.  LMAO at this craziness

[Geos]

Wave currently went through GRR, slightly SE of most guidance. Low looks to head just north of Toronto according to pressure falls. Probably deepening a bit quicker.

[WBadgersW]

Wave currently went through GRR, slightly SE of most guidance. Low looks to head just north of Toronto. Probably deepening a bit quicker.

The fact that todays storm went slightly SE is good, helps prove this seasons trend. Obviously we need a little more than a slight SE trend with the upcoming storm.

[ToastedRavs]

DSM Numbers from Euro. Don't think the 100% to 16% is going to happen at 700 mb.  A reason I am not buying this run of Euro---and that's in 6 hours!

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.6    -1.9    1018      73      16    0.00     551     537    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.4    -3.1    1016      78      93    0.01     551     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.5    -2.7    1016      85     100    0.02     552     539    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   1.0    -4.0    1007      86     100    0.18     548     543    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.2     1.1     999      95      16    0.51     538     540    WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.3     0.3     996      97      75    0.05     532     535    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -1.6    -6.6    1004      88      77    0.07     533     529    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -6.1    -9.0    1015      82      69    0.00     535     524    

[Tom]

Euro showing the low deepen to a low of 992mb at HR 48, just SW of KC where this storm reaches its peak...Earlier this week, I didn't think this storm would go below 990mb and would end up being in the low 990's.  SLP tracks just north of Chicago...if the models show any more strengthening of this system, GRB may have precip type issues.

[Iowa2015]

Agree peeps here are most def bi polar. East coast blizzard NY only expecting a dusting they got rocked

[hlcater]

I just remembered couldn't convection theoretically tug the low south? Don't the models have issues with convection's effects on track? 

[ToastedRavs]

Digging further and going every 3 hours.  That change in DSM from 100% RH to 16% happens in THREE hours.  Not going to happen. That signals to me that something is off with this run.  At least here in Central Iowa.  Any other meteorological thoughts behind this?!  Thanks

TUE 09Z 02-FEB   0.9    -3.4    1013      87     100    0.08     550     540    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   1.0    -4.0    1007      86     100    0.18     548     543    TUE 15Z 02-FEB   0.8    -4.1    1003      88     100    0.34     545     542    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   1.2     1.1     999      95      16    0.51     538     540    TUE 21Z 02-FEB   1.7     1.8     995      97      35    0.03     533     537    WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.3     0.3     996      97      75    0.05     532     535    

[Iowa2015]

Yes  Tom mentioned it a few days ago.

 

I just remembered couldn't convection theoretically tug the low south? Don't the models have issues with convection's effects on track? 

[GDR]

Agree peeps here are most def bi polar. East coast blizzard NY only expecting a dusting they got rocked

your towel should be thrown. Correct?

[WBadgersW]

I just remembered couldn't convection theoretically tug the low south? Don't the models have issues with convection's effects on track? 

 

Correct, that's more of a nowcast situation so we probably wont know until Monday night/Tuesday

[ToastedRavs]

There comes a point when one has to ask how many towels does one have.  They must shop at Bed Bath and Beyond every six hours for more towels!

[bud2380]

I found a website with data for the new parallel GFS.  Below is text output for Omaha. This is the 00z run.  There is a text output link and a graphical view with 850s and precip.

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/gfs0p25charts2.htm - this is the precip map

 

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text5.htm- this is text output

 Station ID: KOMA Lat:   41.31 Long:   95.89                                                         GFS Model Run:  0Z 31JAN 2016 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc Snowfall                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis    in   0 01/31 00Z   38     35     146       5    0.00  0.00    552    553    7.9 -17.1 1002.1   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   **** 13.6    0.0   3 01/31 03Z   36     34     153       5    0.00  0.00    550    552    4.9 -16.9 1003.1 100          CLR    145BKN224 224OVC369   38     36 10.0    0.0   6 01/31 06Z   35     33     338       6    0.00  0.00    549    551    3.1 -17.7 1003.2 100          CLR    145BKN224 228OVC361   38     31  6.3    0.0   9 01/31 09Z   33     32     341      10    0.00  0.00    546    549    2.3 -18.4 1003.7  95          CLR       CLR    238BKN339   36     33  1.2    0.0  12 01/31 12Z   33     33     343       9    0.00  0.00    543    547    1.0 -19.8 1005.0  96 -RA   053FEW095 183FEW220 230BKN327   36     33  0.5    0.0  15 01/31 15Z   33     32     323       9    0.05  0.00    539    545    0.0 -22.2 1007.4 100 -RA   055SCT105 116OVC220 221OVC280   34     33  1.0    0.0  18 01/31 18Z   37     35     315      10    0.05  0.00    535    542   -0.8 -23.5 1008.6  81 -RA   055FEW105 126BKN213 220BKN280   37     33  0.9    0.0  21 01/31 21Z   39     36     314       9    0.00  0.00    533    541   -1.6 -24.0 1009.0   7          FEW       CLR       CLR      39     37  3.6    0.0  24 02/01 00Z   33     32     304       5    0.00  0.00    532    542   -1.8 -24.1 1012.1  27       016SCT020    CLR       CLR      39     33  2.5    0.0  27 02/01 03Z   30     29     304       4    0.00  0.00    533    544   -2.2 -21.7 1014.4  12       013FEW017    CLR       CLR      33     30  2.5    0.0  30 02/01 06Z   29     27     299       3    0.00  0.00    534    547   -1.9 -21.1 1015.3   5       013FEW016    CLR       CLR      33     29  2.5    0.0  33 02/01 09Z   29     28     306       4    0.00  0.00    535    548   -1.3 -22.5 1016.2  28          CLR    175FEW212 263SCT292   29     28  3.7    0.0  36 02/01 12Z   29     27     323       4    0.00  0.00    534    547   -1.3 -23.2 1016.3  59          CLR    159SCT210 238SCT297   30     28  5.5    0.0  39 02/01 15Z   32     28     120       2    0.00  0.00    535    548   -1.7 -23.1 1017.0  83          CLR    163FEW181 230BKN299   32     28  8.0    0.0  42 02/01 18Z   38     31      96       4    0.00  0.00    536    549   -1.9 -22.5 1016.1  82          CLR    149SCT193 230BKN297   38     28 17.9    0.0  45 02/01 21Z   38     33      85       4    0.01  0.00    536    547   -4.0 -21.8 1014.0 100 -SN   091SCT109 120OVC208 220OVC299   40     38  5.6    0.0  48 02/02 00Z   34     32      60       9    0.04  0.00    537    548   -4.2 -21.7 1013.2 100 -SN   071SCT106 115OVC209 222OVC299   40     34  2.9    0.2  51 02/02 03Z   34     32      69      14    0.14  0.00    537    547   -3.0 -21.6 1012.8 100 -RA   062BKN104 109OVC213 220OVC296   35     34  0.8    0.1  54 02/02 06Z   33     32      62      19    0.33  0.00    537    545   -4.9 -21.6 1009.8 100 SN    050BKN093 108OVC216 220OVC294   35     33  0.5    1.2  57 02/02 09Z   32     31      61      22    0.28  0.00    539    543   -4.4 -22.6 1005.4 100 SN    022OVC095 110BKN211 219OVC285   33     32  0.5    2.0  60 02/02 12Z   32     31      50      15    0.70  0.00    537    538   -4.3 -25.1 1001.8 100 SN    015OVC097 106BKN199 217BKN281   33     32  0.5    3.3  63 02/02 15Z   32     31      29      18    0.28  0.00    532    534   -4.5 -26.0 1001.9 100 SN    009OVC096 096BKN182    CLR      32     32  0.5    2.0  66 02/02 18Z   32     31      16      17    0.30  0.00    531    532   -4.2 -27.4 1002.0  99 -SN   012OVC092 096SCT180    CLR      32     32  0.5    0.0  69 02/02 21Z   28     27     351      22    0.04  0.00    527    530   -6.9 -28.6 1003.5 100 -SN   012OVC094    CLR       CLR      32     28  0.5    0.4  72 02/03 00Z   25     23     343      20    0.07  0.00    523    530   -9.8 -28.9 1009.2 100 -SN   020OVC086 105SCT145    CLR      32     25  0.7    0.3  75 02/03 03Z   22     20     337      19    0.01  0.00    522    533  -10.6 -28.9 1014.3 100 -SN   023OVC054 114BKN176    CLR      25     22  1.1    0.1

[Jaycee]

OMA/LNK snow dome dismantled finally...I expect to see a lot of pictures and videos from you guys!

Lol about time! I'll be up all night in search of thundersnow, you can expect a lot of videos and pictures from this guy!

 

 

Also just set up a home gym in my garage, not even a blizzard can make me skip leg day.

[Iowa2015]

your towel should be thrown. Correct?

Not yet. Storm hasn't been sampled convection still can come into play.

[jaster220]

Here are the 6 hour increments from Tuesday 6:00am - 6:00pm...that's a powerhouse storm...

 

 

Would be great if you posted these in order of progression. As are, they are reversed??

[jaster220]

Just wanna say Congrats to all those Nebraska Peeps that have been waiting on the sidelines for some time watching the Big Dogs go everywhere else including mby here in SMI. You guys are gonna get the real deal bliz though which we still are dreaming of here since '99 (GHD1 was a faux bliz here for the most part). Hope y'all enjoy this as much as possible!

[East Dubzz]

I've been out of play in this one for a while here in Rock Island, but I've been coming back here just to see how people react. Does not disappoint.