stuffradio Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well, maybe for your location. Vancouver for example has gone below freezing once in the last 16 days. It has been a pretty "normal" or "average" January for metro Vancouver, Blaine, Bellingham, etc. Perhaps a couple degrees above normal overall, if that. It has been dry for quite a while now but there was that very rainy period in the second week of January which makes up for the dryness now.I've been getting quite a few 32 or below 32 degree days this month. Not every day, but almost every day. It hasn't been uncommon this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 The new Andrew is much improved. No silly cheering and posturing. Just honest analysis. I actually thought he's sounded kind of weird lately. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Soul crushing... http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Soul crushing... http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter. Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I actually thought he's sounded kind of weird lately.The lack of cold onshore flow the last 2 winters has broken his spirit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter. Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight. Pretty much the same. Pattern gets confused and probably low impact in the long range. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter. Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight. That is 100% correct. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 The lack of cold onshore flow the last 2 winters has broken his spirit. Pretty much. Nothing really to do, but wait for spring. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Pretty much the same. Pattern gets confused and probably low impact in the long range. It really has looked kind of convoluted in the day 7-10 range the last few days. It doesn't really have that sharpness, that I would expect to see if something of impact was about to unfold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 That is 100% correct.I know it is. Downsloping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Soul crushing... http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0 Town itself is often a lot more moderate, though. The airport there is in the hills and gets some really kooky localized downslope winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Late word that there is a 15 acre wildfire burning about 5 miles north of my house...Kind of unsettling and not the kind of thing you expect to hear about in late January in the Cascade Foothills. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 That is f'ed up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 6z GFSOooo, 500mb pattern is tantalizingly close to delivering 1-3 modified(or legit) arctic blasts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 6z GFSOooo, 500mb pattern is tantalizingly close to delivering 1-3 modified(or legit) arctic blasts! What are you talking about? I don't see anything remotely close to delivering arctic air to the PNW on the run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I still don't see anything remotely close to showing potential lowland snow/arctic cold for the PNW in any of the models. The EURO (after day 5) looks ridiculous. It shows this ugly retrogression with several cutoff lows in the eastern Pacific. Leaves us in this "no mans" land. The GFS continues to shift back and forth after day 5 as well. But (outside of arctic air post hour 300) not any of these runs are showing 500mb thicknesses lower than 534 within the believable 7 day range. And the GFS ensemble members pretty much suck...no continuity, no agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Why do you bother contributing to this when you apparently live at the arctic multiple times a winter. It is like a slap in the face. It would be so easy for me to be breezy about winter weather with other regions if I lived where you do.I'm sorry. I was just trying to lighten the mood a bit. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I still don't see anything remotely close to showing potential lowland snow/arctic cold for the PNW in any of the models. The EURO (after day 5) looks ridiculous. It shows this ugly retrogression with several cutoff lows in the eastern Pacific. Leaves us in this "no mans" land. The GFS continues to shift back and forth after day 5 as well. But (outside of arctic air post hour 300) not any of these runs are showing 500mb thicknesses lower than 534 within the believable 7 day range. And the GFS ensemble members pretty much suck...no continuity, no agreement. But if you wish hard enough... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 But if you wish hard enough...I think taking a few weeks off might do you some good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs. 4 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs. Your realistic and logical analysis is so depressing. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think taking a few weeks off might do you some good. Then I can come back and tell everyone I was right... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Then I can come back and tell everyone I was right... This forum should be a fantasy world when the weather does not cooperate... arctic air and tons of snow are always just around the corner. And in the summer the following winter will always be epic. Reality has no place in a discussion about science. Those who want to be realistic should just leave. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 This forum should be a fantasy world when the weather does not cooperate... arctic air and tons of snow are always just around the corner. And in the summer the following winter will always be epic. Reality has no place in a discussion about science. Those who want to be realistic should just leave. I really want it to snow, and it may at some point in February, but I'm not going to cheer lead and wishcast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.I am sure many on this board will put you on ignore or vote to have you banned. --- Honestly, I feel this is a very fair assessment and appreciate your input. I do not see this as negative but I am sure some here will. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 We may not get arctic air in the mid or long range, but the near certainty of a good soaking next Tuesday and Wednesday for Oregon and northern California is pretty exciting.. 12z gfs confirms. The Euro and GFS have a similar ridge positioned in the pacific, but it's so dirty that it will be tough to get a true arctic blast.. Canadian on the other hand, is just getting ready to reset to the same weather pattern that we're used to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am sure many on this board will put you on ignore or vote to have you banned. --- Honestly, I feel this is a very fair assessment and appreciate your input. I do not see this as negative but I am sure some here will. I don't have to spend time here, I forecast for a living. Won't bother me any. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Arctic air only two weeks away. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Arctic air only two weeks away.The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze. It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like. Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house. Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like. Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February. That will be nice for them. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze. It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like. Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house. Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like. Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like. Now you know the measure of "spring like" is based on if people like or dislike you post not the facts... You should also know that spring like is 67.2 degrees!!!! Geesh!! --- Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I really want it to snow, and it may at some point in February, but I'm not going to cheer lead and wishcast.Who is cheer leading and wish casting? Is being anything but incredibly depressing and glum with every post considered cheer leading and wish casting now? Take a break buddy. It will be good for you. This is the worst I have ever seen you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.Good analysis. I agree, any chance for true arctic air is still a few weeks away. It will be nice to start getting some chilly systems and mountain snow later next week, though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February. Any Feb. event is likely to bring a strong N to S gradient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 I don't have to spend time here, I forecast for a living. Won't bother me any.It would bother me. I like all of the pros who come onboard. Can always learn something from the experts. How often do boards have the privilege of having communicating directly with experts? Ever try to talk directly to Pete Carroll? Here, we can have the equivalent of that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really.No, you're just wishcasting and cheerleading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really. Things are still trending in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 24, 2014 Report Share Posted January 24, 2014 Any Feb. event is likely to bring a strong N to S gradient.Nah, that really doesn't start becoming a big thing until March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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