SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interested into which camp the 00z Operational will fall! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours.It sure is. Dramatically so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I linked to this video from there... fun stuff. And they talk about the sun quieting down like it did in the 1600s. How ironic. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/active-weather-system-that-just-wont-quit/sharevideo/3110269456001 That would actually be a disaster for life as we know it... don't think we really want that. If people survive in the Arctic Circle, I don’t think we have much to worry about in terms of being able to survive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interested into which camp the 00z Operational will fall!Looking at the progression up to hour 162. I'm gonna guess the cold camp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS HR 162http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_162_500_vort_ht_l.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Arctic blast after hr 300, pushed back a day compared to 18z Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours. Exactly what I was just going to say. This will be interesting...I hope. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Arctic blast after hr 300, pushed back a day compared to 18z I think that would be sooner than the 18z, but later than the 12z. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR 180 Meh....http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht_l.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Exactly what I was just going to say. This will be interesting...I hope.West coast ridge dominates until the Feb 7-8 on this run. Brutally cold for the Midwest and East. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ridge and block merger was so close HR 156-162.... so close, yet so far away. This run surely sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 West coast ridge dominates until the Feb 7-8 on this run. Brutally cold for the Midwest and East. Shocking. <_> Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Super Bowl looking dry... maybe breezy but not very cold. Weather will likely not be a factor at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Super Bowl looking dry... maybe breezy but not very cold. Weather likely will not be a factor at all. This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. Looking like the weather won’t be a factor over here either... Dry. Go figure! 0z SUCKS. I don’t see anything happening for us in the next 10 or 12 days, and over the past day its looking bleaker and bleaker for the first half of February. I don’t care when it comes, as long as it comes. February 15th-22nd would be fine with me, as long as we get dumped on. Please Snow Gods.... and Football Gods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 More like hour 336. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. I was thinking that as well. No weather issues at all is the best thing if we want credit for winning. Assuming we can beat Denver with no crowd or weather advantage. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 A win is a win, if you win the Super Bowl who cares what people say?! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The interesting thing is about 90% of the runs in the past 3 or 4 days deliver the goods at some point. Also very interesting how many runs have depicted a situation where we get westerlies undercutting the cold air once it's in place resulting in a snowstorm. If the ECMWF ensemble is to be believed the cold will arrive sooner than the 0z GFS indicates. I'm very optimistic. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days. Typical post these days. The setup is there before day 15 BTW. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days. it is very possible you will be saying the same thing 15 days from now. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. Looking like the weather won’t be a factor over here either... Dry. Go figure! 0z SUCKS. I don’t see anything happening for us in the next 10 or 12 days, and over the past day its looking bleaker and bleaker for the first half of February. I don’t care when it comes, as long as it comes. February 15th-22nd would be fine with me, as long as we get dumped on. Please Snow Gods.... and Football Gods. The 0z doesn't really suck, but that's just me I guess. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 it is very possible you will be saying the same thing 15 days from now. Nope...you are way too focused on just the GFS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vck Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't want to hear all the complaining in the SB like all the Hawk fans did in 06 against Pittsburg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 0z doesn't really suck, but that's just me I guess. I think your internal personal expectations are quite low... but on here you talk as if there is no reason to doubt a massive arctic outbreak and 2 feet of snow in Seattle within a 10 days. Comes across very odd. The 00Z GFS has nothing of any interest until 336 hours... which is completely meaningless. And yet you think its a good run. I believe that is because in reality you are not expecting much. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think your internal personal expectations are quite low... but on here you talk as if there is no reason to doubt a massive arctic outbreak and 2 feet of snow in Seattle within a 10 days. Comes across very odd. The 00Z GFS has nothing of any interest until 336 hours... which is completely meaningless. And yet you think its a good run. I believe because in reality you are not expecting much. What you do not like frost or maybe the possibility of sloppy rain!? -- all kidding aside I have to agree at face value it is not much to get excited about unless your fantasizing something magical will happen. Maybe things will improve in future runs but at face value it is marginal at best. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 What you do not like frost or maybe the possibility of sloppy rain!? -- all kidding aside I have to agree at face value it is not much to get excited about unless your fantasizing something magical will happen. Maybe things will improve in future runs but at face value it is marginal at best. OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 BTW...even Tim said he thinks something will happen next month. He is just stirring up animosity on here and egging on the weenies. It is not fun coming here anymore. Maybe when the snow actually starts to fall it might become enjoyable again. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while. ok But I was referring to the GFS run not the ECMWF. I never said anything about ECMWF nor was Tim referring to it. I look forward to snow next month and nobody said it was not going to happen but was taking about what the models showed at face value. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lets just have some common sense objective talk about the models! There is some hope, but also at least a 50% chance that nothing very interesting will happen. DIscuss!!! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 BTW...even Tim said he thinks something will happen next month. He is just stirring up animosity on here and egging on the weenies. It is not fun coming here anymore. Maybe when the snow actually starts to fall it might become enjoyable again. I think something will be coming within the next month... but not based on the 00Z GFS. That run was pure crap. I have not even looked at the ECMWF ensembles. Everything is vague and messy right now. It will take awhile for this to settle out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lets just have some common sense objective talk about the models! There is some hope, but also at least a 50% chance that nothing very interesting will happen. DIscuss!!! EXACTLY!! --- It is not about feeling all warm and fuzzy and making up stuff. I still feel we have a chance but as it is, it is still a wait and see. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lotta cold ensemble members. Overall they are everywhere though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while.I think the thing you need to understand is people aren't posting "the worst" or negatively as to spite you or anything like that. It's okay for you to be optimistic, but keep a sense of realism in doing so. I think you feel that if this Winter doesn't pan out that it's the end of the world, but it isn't. It will suck if we don't see anything in February, but it's just the weather. It isn't life or death, or anything you should be down about. Right now models are wishy-washy. We've had a few good operational runs, and a few ensembles that are encouraging, but that's as far as I'd go with things, and you should do the same for your own sake. The trend(if we can call it that today) overall today wasn't good. The EURO ensembles are decent. The GFS Ensembles have trended a bit less favorably, but not horrible(at least mountain snow), but the ensemble spread tells us there is too much uncertainty beyond day 7. Try to be more objective and don't have a "all or nothing" mindset. Just trying to give you a bit of advice for your own sake and your own sanity. Now onto 00z EURO/Ensembles, and 12z tomorrow. Let's see how things shake out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GEM(Canuck Model)http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GEM(Canuck Model)http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=ennext please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Canadian ensemble and NAEFS are improving some but that is 10+ days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z euro....meh, moving on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro site isn't updating for me.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro site isn't updating for me..Yeah, me neither. Try this one http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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