January 2014 in the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

Whatever.   February 5th is 47 days past the winter solstice.      

 

Its different than December.

 

But if we have clouds and precip there should be very little difference.   Big 'IF' right now.

Yeah and August 7th is 47 days past the Summer solstice. 

 

You would never compare early August to early May though.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah and August 7th is 47 days past the Summer solstice. 

 

You would never compare early August to early May though.

 

True... but as Dewey has pointed out... our climate is skewed to the warm season.   That is just how it works here.   

 

Our anomalous cold potential is more limited than our anomalous warm potential later in the respective seasons.

[Deweydog]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.   Far from a guarantee.    The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October or very early November.    

 

The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver.     You can't sled or play in cold stats.   

 

Yeah... not worried about it at all are ya?

[westcoastexpat]

Whatever.

 

Does not work around here too well.

 

We have discussed this endlessly over the years.    

 

Seasonal lag definitely plays a much larger role out near the Great Lakes, it's very significant there, but no so much out west. I'd agree with the notion, however, that early February is similar to early December. Around the Great Lakes region early February really is the half way point of winter.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... not worried about it at all are ya?

 

 

Not really worried.    Honestly.

 

Would like some snow going into the cold so the kids are happy.    Next week looks nice either way.    Sunny, cold, and dry is fine with me... even if its not memorable for anyone.  

 

I hope there is snow going into the cold to save us the endless argument about people's perception on here.    I know it will be in the low 40s if its sunny next week in Seattle and it will not seem like much.     With a good dump of snow it will be very memorable and there will be nothing to debate.    

[westcoastexpat]

This run isn't as good as the 12z for the PNW, but continues the theme of modified arctic air.

 

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

[Deweydog]

True... but as Dewey has pointed out... our climate is skewed to the warm season.   That is just how it works here.   

 

Our anomalous cold potential is more limited than our anomalous warm potential later in the respective seasons.

 

Don't drag me into this...  Everyone knows our seasonal lag is far more prominent in the warm season.  It's clearly represented statistically.  The anecdotal comparisons you're making are just silly though and clearly an attempt to get a rise out of people, or just Jim.  

[Deweydog]

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

 

You made that 10 days ago?  No snow today, but no Arctic air either.  

 

Fail.

[westcoastexpat]

You made that 10 days ago?  No snow today, but no Arctic air either.  

 

Fail.

 

No, I made it a couple days ago. I got scrutinized for disregarding an arctic blast in the first week of Feb.

[Jesse]

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

 

Except that is hasn't happened yet. Let's not pat ourselves on the back until the event actually occurs. Too far out to even discuss such details right now.

 

This IS the funniest post I've read all day though, and there's been some stiff competition.

[Jesse]

I think it's time for Tim to go back on mod preview.

[TT-SEA]

Don't drag me into this...  Everyone knows our seasonal lag is far more prominent in the warm season.  It's clearly represented statistically.  The anecdotal comparisons you're making are just silly though and clearly an attempt to get a rise out of people, or just Jim.  

 

OK. 

 

How is the comparison silly?     Without a prominent cold seasonal lag... February skews warmer than you would expect.    We need precip and clouds next week!     

[Jesse]

PDX and SEA have had highs below freezing with clear, dry air well into late February, btw.

 

I had a high of 31 in Orchards on 2/25/11 with full sunshine and light east winds. No snowcover to hold things down either.

[brody]

No, I made it a couple days ago. I got scrutinized for disregarding an arctic blast in the first week of Feb.

In which case you will STILL likely fail 

[TT-SEA]

PDX and SEA have had highs below freezing with clear, dry air well into late February, btw.

 

I am using February 2006 as a gauge.    Very similar set-up it appears right now.

 

The outflow was intense... but we did not get snow going in and it was totally sunny.     The winds in Bellingham were gusting above 50mph.

[Jesse]

I am using February 2006 as a gauge.    Very similar set-up it appears right now.

 

The outflow was intense... but we did not get snow going in and it was totally sunny.     The winds in Bellingham were gusting above 50mph.

 

PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06.

 

No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies.

[TT-SEA]

For reference... here is the 2006 event:

 

http://s18.postimg.org/68l5pcp21/2_14.gif

 

http://s16.postimg.org/7onuobcut/2_15.gif

 

http://s24.postimg.org/56nxekpjp/2_16.gif

 

http://s27.postimg.org/o3vtlrzeb/2_17.gif

[TT-SEA]

PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06.

 

No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies.

 

 

PDX did way better than SEA then.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The February 2006 event was pretty quick hitting...

[TT-SEA]

PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06.

 

No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies.

 

Snoqualmie Falls site with the 2006 event:

 

2/14 - 45

2/15 - 40

2/16 - 41

2/17 - 35

2/18 - 43

2/19 - 45

2/20 - 42

[Deweydog]

OK. 

 

How is the comparison silly?     Without a prominent cold seasonal lag... February skews warmer than you would expect.    We need precip and clouds next week!     

 

February doesn't skew anything.  If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem.  We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb.  

[Deweydog]

I think it's time for Tim to go back on mod preview.

 

Oh stop.  You're wearing thin.  

[snow_wizard]

PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06.

 

No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies.

I don't think it will be like 2006 anyway. The upper level support was VERY short lived with that event. This will be a lot longer. Some typical downplaying going on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believe Salem set 2 record lows with back to back lows of 18 with the 2006 event. I'd like to see them set a record low in January at least once in my lifetime.

[snow_wizard]

February doesn't skew anything.  If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem.  We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb.

There are examples of pretty extreme cold in Feb. Feb 1936 was colder than any December of the 20th century. Just for an example.

[TT-SEA]

February doesn't skew anything.  If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem.  We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb.  

 

Don't think their dumb... but fair enough.   You get it.

[TT-SEA]

There are examples of pretty extreme cold in Feb. Feb 1936 was colder than any December of the 20th century. Just for an example.

 

With snow I assume.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think it will be like 2006 anyway. The upper level support was VERY short lived with that event. This will be a lot longer. Some typical downplaying going on.

 

Great point. That was a very short lived event. The upper level dynamics were gone as soon quickly as they came. 

 

As for this event, it may be longer, it may not be, it may not happen. To soon to say.

[westcoastexpat]

In which case you will STILL likely fail 

 

Oh yeah?

[snow_wizard]

I believe Salem set 2 record lows with back to back lows of 18 with the 2006 event. I'd like to see them set a record low in January at least once in my lifetime.

It has to happen at some point. If we actually get hit next week we will be getting hit in a time frame that has also struggled mightily in recent years. There is nothing we are more due for than a very cold Jan.

[TT-SEA]

Great point. That was a very short lived event. The upper level dynamics were gone as soon quickly as they came. 

 

As for this event, it may be longer, it may not be, it may not happen. To soon to say.

 

I wish the ECMWF precip maps went out to 240 hours... seems like more potential for precip on that run than just a straight shot from the north like the GFS has been showing.

[Jesse]

Don't think their dumb... but fair enough.   You get it.

 

They're.

 

And they were. You are just trying to get a rise out of people. Bainbridgekid did a great job of combating your BS earlier, luckily.

[snow_wizard]

With snow I assume.

I think there's a good chance we will see snow with the event coming up. Pretty hard to imagine two blasts in the same winter not having at least some snow. It APPEARS SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY ONCE THE COLD IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS OPPOSED TO GOING INTO THE EVENT. Sorry about the caps.

[Jesse]

I really don't understand the wringing of hands over details right now. The models are just now barely even beginning to agree upon an event happening at all. We've got a long ways to go until we can start nailing down duration of cold and precip amounts.

 

This thing could go lots of ways, assuming it's even going to be a thing.

[GHweatherChris]

Its starting to rain here, !!

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie Falls site with the 2006 event:

 

2/14 - 45

2/15 - 40

2/16 - 41

2/17 - 35

2/18 - 43

2/19 - 45

2/20 - 42

850mb temps over Seattle were only below -10 for about 36 hours with that event.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0215j5.php

[snow_wizard]

I really don't understand the wringing of hands over details right now. The models are just now barely even beginning to agree upon an event happening at all. We've got a long ways to go until we can start nailing down duration of cold and precip amounts.

 

This thing could go lots of ways, assuming it's even going to be a thing.

It's pretty clear it will at least get cold.

[westcoastexpat]

It's like a 6th grade classroom in here sometimes. Gentleman, if you have an issue with one another, sort it out in PM. If it's not weather related, or if it's a nasty remark toward someone's spelling or personal beliefs, this isn't the place. 

 

theweatherforums.com

 

Let's keep it about weather, people. Please.

[TT-SEA]

And then you have February of 1989... with a huge dump of snow going into the cold which was in the same general time frame in early February.

 

A high of 15 and a low of 8... with 10 inches of snow on the ground at Snoqualmie Falls on 2/2/89.

 

Now that is what I am talking about.   That is memorable!!     Don't give me this 38/20 with sunshine and a bare ground stuff.    

[Jesse]

It's like a 6th grade classroom in here sometimes. Gentleman, if you have an issue with one another, sort it out in PM. If it's not weather related, or if it's a nasty remark toward someone's spelling or personal beliefs, this isn't the place. 

 

theweatherforums.com

 

Let's keep it about weather, people. Please.

 

iFred's not on right now. You can peel your lips from his behind.