January 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z is about to take the stage!

I am very excited.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 degrees with freezing rain in Mobile, Al!

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/

[BLI snowman]

What?

 

If we end up on the eastern side of a flat ridge next week like the ECMWF shows then it will be a cloudy, drippy week and not a cool, clear week.

 

There is nothing shown down to Bakersfield on that map.    It barely shows rain to Crescent City.

 

What do you call those purple spots on the map?

 

Honestly, this post deserves a weenie tag. Flat ridge? Warm frontal drizzle? There's offshore flow and 850mb temps around -3c or lower for most of the run. You're wrong, and you're a weenie for posting a map of phantom precip from 192 hours to prove your point about how gloomy and mild it will be. 

[Deweydog]

Whiner thread powers activate!

[TT-SEA]

What do you call those purple spots on the map?

 

Honestly, this post deserves a weenie tag. Flat ridge? Warm frontal drizzle? There's offshore flow and 850mb temps around -3c or lower for most of the run. You're wrong, and you're a weenie for posting a map of phantom precip from 192 hours to prove your point about how gloomy it and mild it will be. 

 

 

Is this a trap???   

 

You are wrong about what the ECMWF actually shows.   That is all I am saying.  I correct you and then you starting calling me out for caring about drizzle!!   

 

Make no mistake... I want there to be precipitation every single day in February.    It would be the best thing for spring.

[TT-SEA]

How is the 00Z run looking?    

[BLI snowman]

There is a little orographic enhancement down there.   Whatever.   

 

You said the ECMWF shows dry and cool offshore flow... I showed you a map that shows solid light precip on the same ECMWF run.    The GFS is just about there as well.     

 

You are wrong about what the ECMWF shows.     And make no mistake... I want there to be precipitation every single day in February.    It would be the best thing for spring.

 

You're harping on one frame of a model that is notorious for producing phantom pockets of moisture, all the while showing offshore flow and significant cold pooled in Eastern WA. At face value, the Euro pattern is a cool/dry one for us. 

[TT-SEA]

You're harping on one frame of a model that is notorious for producing phantom pockets of moisture, all the while showing offshore flow and significant cold pooled in Eastern WA. At face value, the Euro pattern is a cool/dry one for us.

Not a pocket... its a solid warm front. And it makes sense based on the 500mb pattern on the 12Z run. Anything but dry weather would be very welcome. I like dry... but we need to pay up before real spring arrives.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 84

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_084_500_vort_ht.gif

[BLI snowman]

Not a pocket... its a solid warm front. And it makes sense based on the 500mb pattern on the 12Z run. Anything but dry weather would be very welcome. I like dry... but we need to pay up before real spring arrives.

 

-8c 850mb temps over GEG at that point. Sizzling. 

[TT-SEA]

-8c 850mb temps over GEG at that point. Sizzling.

Who cares? Still shows rain and low clouds over here with all those factors. It knows when a warm front is in play and when there is cool offshore flow over here like in the past week. It has been bone dry on those maps for the last 10 days. No phantom pockets.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_120_500_vort_ht.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

The run is early, but I don't think I quite like where the 00z is heading through HR 120. I want to see the 500mb pattern start to come together by day 5-6 with the ridge/block merger taking place and axis 140 W or even further west with the goods arriving by day 7-9. I don't want to see things turn favorably by day 9-11 forget that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 120 the GFS isn't going anywhere good...

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 141 nope

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_141_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

00Z is much warmer to our north next Monday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man that bought back memories of watching those guys in the 90s.

Funny looking at all the older cars.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Man that bought back memories of watching those guys in the 90s.

Funny looking at all the older cars.

[TT-SEA]

Funny looking at all the older cars.

 

I was thinking that as well when watching those videos.      

 

Back in 1993 there would have been lots of cars on the road from the early and mid 80s.      

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow so far the 00z GFS isn't close to anything good.

[TT-SEA]

Wow so far the 00z GFS isn't close to anything good.

 

And its much drier earlier in the week.   Give me 28 days of rain in February!    That is 100% sincere.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow so far the 00z GFS isn't close to anything good.

Nope. .... The ridge that never died. I Swear... We have this bit of rain now, but no major pattern change in sight....

[Phil]

Nothing for the PNW through hr180.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156  .. Should I just stop now?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_156_500_vort_ht.gif

[BLI snowman]

Who cares? Still shows rain and low clouds over here with all those factors. It knows when a warm front is in play and when there is cool offshore flow over here like in the past week. It has been bone dry on those maps for the last 10 days. No phantom pockets.

 

Definitely a phantom pocket. It's not going to warm front drizzle, and you're going to be wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a phantom pocket. It's not going to warm front drizzle, and you're going to be wrong.

Holy crap. I did not say it would happen. I said the ECMWF showed a warm front and precip. I can't be wrong. I already proved I was right. It shows a solid shield of precip going all the way to AK. Its called a warm front. And it showed it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nope. .... The ridge that never died. I Swear... We have this bit of rain now, but no major pattern change in sight....

 

This is the winter from hell.

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't know what's worse... tonight's 00z GFS, or the Blazers horrid performance vs Memphis at home. Wow. Toss up maybe....

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is the winter from hell.

Yep... good news is we will have spring to see a great winter pattern... As always!

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh my...... HR 180 .... That is just a pure -fest unfolding before our eyes.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That D**n ridge has been relentless. Another epic fail, we sure need a pattern for the mountains bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least we'll always have the early December arctic blast and Eugene's -10.

[Phil]

A wet run in the long range, but the arctic air spills into the Midwest and East.

[Gradient Keeper]

A wet run in the long range, but the arctic air spills into the Midwest and East.

Oh really? first time this Winter, said no one EVER. Ah well what can you do about it? nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Yep... good news is we will have spring to see a great winter pattern... As always!

 

 

Noooooo... there is hope if we have a relentless wet February.

[BLI snowman]

Holy crap. I did not say it would happen. I said the ECMWF showed a warm front and precip. I can't be wrong. I already proved I was right. It shows a solid shield of precip going all the way to AK. Its called a warm front. And it showed it.

 

 

LOL, a 1600 mile long warm front that spawns with an extremely weak pressure gradient. 

 

 

You realize how ridiculous that sounds. You made a weenie post and got called out for it. Deal.

 

You're obviously having a weenie freakout because a few models runs show the arctic air hitting eastern WA instead of western WA. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It honestly feels like winter never started this year.

[TT-SEA]

LOL, a 1600 mile long warm front that spawns with an extremely weak pressure gradient. 

 

 

You realize how ridiculous that sounds. You made a weenie post and got called out for it. Deal.

 

You're obviously having a weenie freakout because a few models runs show the arctic air hitting eastern WA instead of western WA. 

 

 

 

Ridiculous???   The ECMWF shows it and its extremely accurate with precip.    Are you arguing with me or this:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

 

 

I want rain right now.    Need to have it to have a shot at April and May being nice.   And we will be in Hawaii.    Anything but dry is awesome right now.

 

You are trapping me.    Silly waste of time.    You are purposely saying things that make no sense.   I did not create the ECMWF map.   

 

GFS headed that way as well:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_204_precip_p24.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Ridiculous???   The ECMWF shows it and its extremely accurate with precip.    Are you arguing with me or this:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

 

 

I want rain right now.    Need to have a shot at April and May being nice.   And we will be in Hawaii.    Anything but dry is awesome right now.

 

You are trapping me.    Silly waste of time.    You are purposely saying things that make no sense.   I did not create the ECMWF map.   

 

GFS headed that way as well:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_186_precip_p12.gif

Tim are you manipulating images or creating your own photoshop jobs to help win your arguments again?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 

Ridiculous???   The ECMWF shows it and its extremely accurate with precip.    Are you arguing with me or this:

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

 

 

I want rain right now.    Need to have it to have a shot at April and May being nice.   And we will be in Hawaii.    Anything but dry is awesome right now.

 

You are trapping me.    Silly waste of time.    You are purposely saying things that make no sense.   I did not create the ECMWF map.   

 

GFS headed that way as well:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_204_precip_p24.gif

Gfs maps shows offshore flow at that hr.