TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 18Z much colder. Jim will be back tonight! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's been a very tough year for the northern mountains, as I've said. I know loads of people who haven't even gone boarding this year. I've yet to see a Mt. Baker shot on my Facebook this season... shame. Nobody in BC is going! Ya it has been tough, although Mt. Baker still has 74 inches at its base. Not the best year, but still pretty decent compared to many places. Awesome to see some colder runs today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I am very happy with this little storm. Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school. They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight. And lots of rain around the Seattle area. Still pouring rain here. Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month. Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I am very happy with this little storm. Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school. They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight. And lots of rain around the Seattle area. Still pouring rain here. Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month. Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later. I've been happy with this storm as well. The mountain snow has been fun to watch and we've actually been shadowed up here so it's barely drizzled all day. But there is simply no mechanism by which this storm overperforming could possibly affect the amount of rain we see a month from now. You always tout the importance of remaining objective and grounded in our weather analysis, but your statements about wishing for more rain now to avoid being due for rain later simply are not supported by any evidence I have ever seen. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just wrote this little piece: For those of you who like to like to put a lot of weight into super long range deterministic model outputhttp://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/29/im-out-of-the-contest Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah. It's very unprecedented, especially when you look at how little snow is on the Vancouver Island mountain range. Unbelievable: Current Snow Depth.jpgAnd to think they were worried about not enough snow for the 2010 winter games in Vancouver Good thing they didnt hold them this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 He rips on everyone else for being realistic. He brings it on himself to some degree. Dealing in reality is always the best way to go when trying to understand nature.I don't think it's an issue with him being realistic or dealing with reality. Let's face it--many are on here in the winter months because they like snow--nothing wrong with that. And he interprets the models and other information he has at his disposal in such a manner that demonstrates a way to get what many most of the board wants. He seldom says, "It's going to do this" or anything of the sort. Rather, he provides a roadmap, if you will, of a process which could ultimately deliver the goods. There's nothing wrong with that--and I don't think he needs to be put in his place for his efforts. That said, I know most of the board gets along with him, and it's not necessarily ill-will that's directed to him. But certainly can appear that way even if not intended. I think he (and others who put in the effort) should get a pass. I love reading his posts--and often times, you have good info yourself. I would hate to see him run off (or anyone for that matter) simply because a few choose to dismiss his efforts. On a lighter note, it looks like the Euro is behaving! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I've been happy with this storm as well. The mountain snow has been fun to watch and we've actually been shadowed up here so it's barely drizzled all day. But there is simply no mechanism by which this storm overperforming could possibly affect the amount of rain we see a month from now. You always tout the importance of remaining objective and grounded in our weather analysis, but your statements about wishing for more rain now to avoid being due for rain later simply are not supported by any evidence I have ever seen. Whatever. Its just the law averages. We have been over this a million times. Nothing scientific or precise. But if you have a bunch incredibly dry months then its more likely that you have a bunch of wet months eventually. The more rain we get now... the more I feel better about our odds for spring and summer. A very wet February and March would be great. Cycles. Does not always work... but the law of averages does apply to local weather. We will snap back to normal over time. That might be over 6 months or 6 years. But it will happen. Might as well get that process started in the winter and not in May. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS looks very similar to 12z ECMWF with a L dropping from the NW and making landfall somewhere along the Oregon coast. Problem is that 18z GFS is even weaker with the low. Last time in early December the models picked up on this L rather quickly and never blinked. The best we can hope for is the models strengthening this L. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z ensembles are definitely a bit better the 12z. Operational is also a couple degrees warmer than the ensemble mean. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 What a day here... 1.75 inches of rain and still coming down. I would take the scenario this January EVERY time. Dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain... dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain. MUCH better than getting the 7.25 inches that has fallen here this month at a rate of .25 per day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 SEA almost up to 1 inch of rain. I love it... get it all at once so its not such a dry month despite so many dry days. I am very happy with this little storm. Just dumped snow on Snoqualmie Summit... the ski bus is running again from the middle school. They should have a good period up there for skiing now with all this new snow and no torch in sight. And lots of rain around the Seattle area. Still pouring rain here. Over 1.5 inches for the storm and almost 7 inches on the month. Making it a little less likely that we will be due to pay for this later. Rainfall total of .80 last night here. Now at 6.3 inches for the month and might end up over 7 inches with the wrap-around stuff tonight. Not a dry month at all here. SEA is also over .80 which is even more meaningful to their monthly total which is solidly over 3 inches now. What a day here... 1.75 inches of rain and still coming down. I would take the scenario this January EVERY time. Dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain... dry and sunny... dry and sunny... dump of rain. MUCH better than getting the 7.25 inches that has fallen here this month at a rate of .25 per day. Not that it matters because you are liberty to post whatever you want, but doesn't it get boring typing the exact same post one after another? It seems like at least four posts in three pages about how you like heavy rain as opposed to light rain would get a little tiring, but whatever. I am very happy to hear you are enjoying rain because it is nice to learn to live with the climate we are stuck in. Oh, and .83" here. And I know the posts are out of order, but oh well. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Whatever. Its just the law averages. We have been over this a million times. Nothing scientific or precise. But if you have a bunch incredibly dry months then its more likely that you have a bunch of wet months eventually. The more rain we get now... the more I feel better about our odds for spring and summer. A very wet February and March would be great. Cycles. Does not always work... but the law of averages does apply to local weather. We will snap back to normal over time. That might be over 6 months or 6 years. But it will happen. Might as well get that process started in the winter and not in May. But having one storm under or overperform has no bearing on future patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 But having one storm under or overperform has no bearing on future patterns. Of course not... not specifically. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The ski resorts on Mount Hood are getting some good snow this evening. Nice to see! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Of course not... not specifically. Big picture. Law of averages. I hate this argument. You guys act like it could go 3 years without raining a drop here and we would still not be due to snap back with lots of rain. Its all completely random. Odds still exactly the same. We swing around normal... the longer we stay on one side... the more likely it becomes that we swing to the other side. Its just common sense. One storm... one month... one season... probably means nothing specifically. Just playing the law of averages in the big picture.It's pretty simple. I have yet to see any evidence to suggest that this statement is true. Until then, I see no reason to believe it. I will also say that 99% of the time people refer to the Law of Averages it is a fallacy and based on anecdotal evidence that is not scientific. That or they are referring to the Law of Large Numbers (which is actually true) but involves no swinging back or being due. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers This debate is getting old on the forum, but I'd love to continue it in PM's or on Facebook. Like I said, I am open to changing my mind if I see some evidence. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the sake of people on here... we have been discussing it and bainbridge is going to look into the data. I said that weather is not completely random like flipping a coin. One factor in play is that weather moves around the Earth in a wavy train of ridges and troughs. So a dry period under a ridge is more likely to be followed by a wetter period in a trough because its usually next in line. That is different than saying its completely random. Obviously this is not a hard and fast rule... but the concept is in play. It is also likely to be more prominent at our latitude. Father south ridges can get stuck and feed off the dry conditions. And the timing of ridges and troughs is highly variable. But I think it does play a role. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 For the sake of people on here... we have been discussing it and bainbridge is going to look into the data. I said that weather is not completely random like flipping a coin. One factor in play is that weather moves around the Earth in a wavy train of ridges and troughs. So a dry period under a ridge is more likely to be followed by a wetter period in a trough because its usually next in line. That is different than saying its completely random. Obviously this is not a hard and fast rule... but the concept is in play. It is also likely to be more prominent at our latitude. Father south ridges can get stuck and feed off the dry conditions. And the timing of ridges and troughs is highly variable. But I think it does play a role.You sure used a lot of words to basically say nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 You sure used a lot of words to basically say nothing. We have used even more on facebook to discuss! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 We have used even more on facebook to discuss! I kind of want to know...how do you have so much time to spend on this forum?? You're on this site almost ALL day...do you work from home or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not buying what the 12Z EURO is selling...looks way too awkward, and can't envision that much energy digging that far west. You know what I've noticed this season (so far)...there are all these cut-off lows that keep screwing up the Eastern Pacific. It's like, we get blocking off the coast...it starts to retrograde...but then a minor piece of energy comes through, turns into a cut-off low, and it screws up the retrogression potential. It happened back just a few weeks ago...it looks like a similar pattern is about to happen again. Very frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not buying what the 12Z EURO is selling...looks way too awkward, and can't envision that much energy digging that far west. You know what I've noticed this season (so far)...there are all these cut-off lows that keep screwing up the Eastern Pacific. It's like, we get blocking off the coast...it starts to retrograde...but then a minor piece of energy comes through, turns into a cut-off low, and it screws up the retrogression potential. It happened back just a few weeks ago...it looks like a similar pattern is about to happen again. Very frustrating. M Nel says the 12z GFS shows a Willamette Valley snow event...I wish. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 The ensembles are pretty decent. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Storm rain total now at 1.25. The videos coming out of the SE snow storm are amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Initial look at SEA data appears to show that a dry winter tends to lead to a dry spring... and a wet winter also tends to lead to a dry spring. Not what I was expecting. More research and more data needed. Must be all those 'normal' precip winters that produce our wet, ugly springs! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00Z looks quite chilly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00Z looks quite chilly. Colder than the 12z but not as cold as the 18z through day 7. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Colder than the 12z but not as cold as the 18z through day 7. Yeah... I was doing side-by-side with the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Saturday morning... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.63.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Last 90 days: http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Last 90 days: http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gifAre you trying to break the single day posting record by one person? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Last 90 days: http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gifNot a good map. Much of the Inland West gets 10-15" of rain a year so it would be impossible for them to be in the red on that map even if they didn't see a single drop of rain. That makes it look like the Coast has been getting a megga drought while the Inner Mountain West has been just below average. What's the percentages map look like? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not a good map. Much of the Inland West gets 10-15" of rain a year so it would be impossible for them to be in the red on that map even if they didn't see a single drop of rain. That makes it look like the Coast has been getting a megga drought while the Inner Mountain West has been just below average. What's the percentages map look like? Great point. Missed the header! Here is the map I meant to post: http://s18.postimg.org/so0tz8io9/anomimage_1.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GFS not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can you guys please start diggin so we can start troughing? This cold is getting old! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GFS not good.Depends on your definition of 'good'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z brings in the cold a bit quicker for us, and gives us a nice snow storm next Wednesday the 5th. Seems like every other run has switched the placement with this little guy. Also puts us in the ice box in the long range. This is going to be a very interesting month. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow... 00Z Canadian is totally different and I assume much colder at 144 hours. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow... 00Z Canadian is totally different and I assume much colder at 144 hours. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpgKinda looks like the 12z euro only sooner. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Pretty incredible images of the deep south snow "storm" more like just cold temps as far as I'm concerned. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2548037/Thousands-stranded-snowy-roads-crashes-South-2-000-children-forced-sleep-schoo.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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