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March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm


Geos

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GFS usually skimps on the snow amounts with f-gen bands...

 

And also the GFS tends to be too slow to drop amounts south of what is often a razor-sharp southern edge.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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And also the GFS tends to be too slow to drop amounts south of what is often a razor-sharp southern edge.

 

Yeah that too.

Liking where I sit right now.

 

HRRR has the front coming through at 4pm here.

 

 

When the wind comes down the lake in late winter, spring you can usually count on a temperature profile to look like this.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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HRRR has the front coming through at 4pm here.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160229/1400Z/f008/sfctmw.png

 

 

Even though I probably won't be getting much snow from this, as a weather geek I love watching these late-season extreme gradient systems.  That's just a cool map.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is the snowfall map for the 21st. this upcoming storm looks to be less down this way but interesting to see some similarities up north.

 

attachicon.gif48hour_snowfall.png

Thanks for bringing that up...ya, it will be fascinating to see if the fronto band is as razor sharp as some of the higher rez models are showing it to be.  I think the heaviest will end up north of I-90/94.  There is a period when the winds turn off the lake and veer more NE as SLP passes on to the south which could enhance snowfall a bit for lake side counties.  Temps are forecast to be in the mid 20's as the snow starts flying just after midnight tonight.

 

18z RAP thru 3:00am..still snowing...this is about when the lake may have an influence in NE IL as winds veer for ENE/NE.  Looks like the track will be just over Quincy, IL.  Near perfect track for snowfall in N IL.

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Hopefully it can add several inches

 

Actually more likely between 5am and early afternoon tomorrow. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if there is 10" amounts.

 

End of the 16z HRRR

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NMM smokin' this area again with 1" of moisture.

 

 

EURO targeting the same areas it looks like.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z Euro...lining up well with the higher rez models in terms of placement of heaviest corridor of preicp...looks like Cook county on north towards south burbs of MKE.

 

850's drop to -10C when SLP passes over Indy when winds howl full fetch downwind the lake into NE IL.  The period to watch for Lehs snowfall is between 6:00am till just after 12:00pm local time.  I think a lake plume is def possible.

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EURO close to what it was last night. Little less farther west, but I wouldn't sweat it. Go with the high-res models.

 

post-7-0-24331400-1456769316_thumb.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Snow shouldn't have a problem accumulating overnight on roads when temps are in the upper 20's...by the time the sun comes up there will be an established snow cover and temps still in the mid/upper 20's.  This should be a nice snow storm for the region.

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The band is going to setup just north of the 0° line at 850 mb.

 

You can see the beginnings of the band along US 20 in Iowa.

 

The convergence with this is impressive.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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RPM goes south.

 

post-7389-0-00664500-1456770878.png

 

Front is already into the northern suburbs of Milwaukee. 

It's moving quicker than the HRRR is showing it.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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