bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 We've all been talking about it, might as well make it official. here is the latest NAM. http://i.imgur.com/BmbiHAG.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 And last nights GGEM which shows the main band to the north with the deformation band further south, similar to the Euro. http://i.imgur.com/Ys43Ddc.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Welcome to Spring 2016! The battle has begun between the GEFS vs EPS...some differences this far out but fairly similar..who will score the coupe with this one??? The GFS won the battle for the EC Nor'Easter that is forming right now. It had the storm barely hitting the coastline for days while the Euro/GGEM were farther inland 3-5+ days out. 06z GEFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032006/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png 00z EPS,.. EPS is slower and strong earlier on as it phases quickly. Takes a track in the Plains nearly identical to what happened back in LRC cycle #3 (GHD III). I don't expect this storm to occlude like it did during the previous cycle. Could we have another Blizzard in the Plains??? I have to shake my head and realize its Spring when I just looked at the full 00z EPS run through early April. The Plains/Lakes look like a mid Winter snowfall map! The Lakes are the epicenter...Control goes nuclear...lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Have been away for several days, looks like a decent storm for Nebraska. Though Monday and Tuesday well into the 70's so ground would be warm. We will see, but unless at night I would seriously doubt those amounts. has happened before this late in March, but usually is gone quickly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter. Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Ggem is a monster hit again for wisconsin except it's a tad north it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Have been away for several days, looks like a decent storm for Nebraska. Though Monday and Tuesday well into the 70's so ground would be warm. We will see, but unless at night I would seriously doubt those amounts. has happened before this late in March, but usually is gone quicklyIf it snows hard enough it will stick regardless of the ground temp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif 61 MM just north of the 850 line which is 2.4 QPF and that's not including what happened before or after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could easily see a rainer in all of our backyards. Nebraska trolling money... Payback 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032012/gem_asnow_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could easily see a rainer in all of our backyards. Nebraska trolling money... Payback Possible. Anything is on the table yet 3 days out or so but getting 2 feet of snow would be pretty funny after this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Possible. Anything is on the table yet 3 days out or so but getting 2 feet of snow would be pretty funny after this winter. Ya foot plus would be fun just leary of climatology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 The EPS is too generous for my area, but I think the GFS may be too far north. I think the heaviest snowfall will settle just slightly north(20-30mi) of the current GGEM solution. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032012/gem_asnow_us_17.pngYou see that white sliver in Minnesota? Hello, welcome to my winter. Haha, in all seriousness though, this thing seems to be coming in rather consistent on the models. Will be interesting to see just how much moisture can get wrapped up in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Ya foot plus would be fun just leary of climatology GGEM would be fun: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/12Z/f090/6hkucherasnowmw.png 6-12 inches of snow in 6 hours with 30 mph winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter. Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina.I get buried in basically all of these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 0z GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f126/acckucherasnowmw.png 12z GGEM http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/12Z/f114/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM with storm after storm after storm in the long range. Has another clipper type system around Easter and then another one after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS finally starting to run. Out to HR 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Some massive hitters showing up on the 00z EPS and some hefty Spring snows...the storm track setting up over the next 2 weeks reminds me of the winter 2007-2008...cutter after cutter. Hope next year we have something similar to this with more consistent blocking along with a La Nina.There is some epic results in there. E8 especially. Seeing E21 would be something. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Def. nudge south on 12z GFS compared to 6z GFS. A lot more FZR showing up than previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/12Z/f096/acckucherasnowmw.png 6z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160320/06Z/f102/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 How strong that first system is on Tuesday will determine how fast that drop can drop through. Reminds me of the leap day/March 1st storm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Low tracks to the IL/WI border this run compared to Milwaukee on 6z. Pretty consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS maintains its track into SE Iowa. I think that is ultimately how it will play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 That's 2 models so far throwing out 24+ amounts. Euro running now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 No reason to discount a track near Chicago. All the models are showing an amped up storm. Needless to say, this will be another fun storm to track in late March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 No reason to discount a track near Chicago. All the models are showing an amped up storm. Needless to say, this will be another fun storm to track in late March. All depends on how strong the east side of the high is. Stronger the high to the east the more the band will be west to east. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 The new euro must run later as well. Used to start at 12:50 but still hasn't started running Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's out to 48 on pivotal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 The new euro must run later as well. Used to start at 12:50 but still hasn't started running It's getting there. Little slower than normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 993 in central ks at 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 So far everything exactly the same at hour 60. Low starts in SE CO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 995 in western mo at 96 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 995 in western mo at 96 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 993 in central ks at 72 The actual strongest part of the low is digging towards Wichita at that hour. F-Gen band exactly like last night. Scary similar. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looks really similar to 0z last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z Euro is 2mb stronger same time at HR96 as yesterday's 12z HR 120 run.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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