Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Madtown]

3" of frozen precip?!?!?!

[Tom]

Those Euro txt outputs are as crazy as I've ever seen! If that would happen, it would make up for the lackluster Winter for Madtown and MKE!

[hlcater]

KVTI bud?

[Geos]

Looks like a 29-30° snow for the most part. Fairly wet.

 

NAM going~

[MKEstorm]

 

MKE

WED 18Z 23-MAR   0.9    -1.8    1016      87      97    0.16     556     543    WED 21Z 23-MAR   0.4    -3.5    1017      89     100    0.18     556     542    THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.1    -2.7    1018      89     100    0.33     556     542    THU 03Z 24-MAR   0.0    -3.3    1019      93     100    0.15     556     541    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -4.0    1018      86      99    0.27     555     541    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -4.6    1016      82      98    0.10     553     541    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.1    -4.8    1016      86     100    0.30     553     541    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -1.6    -4.0    1014      87      98    0.14     552     541    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -3.8    1011      88      98    0.27     550     541    THU 21Z 24-MAR  -1.2    -5.1    1007      89      99    0.30     548     542    FRI 00Z 25-MAR  -1.5    -7.6    1006      90      99    0.71     544     539    FRI 03Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -8.0    1005      90      96    0.33     541     537    FRI 06Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -8.2    1005      87      93    0.45     539     535    FRI 09Z 25-MAR  -2.0    -9.7    1005      86      91    0.06     537     533    FRI 12Z 25-MAR  -2.4   -10.0    1007      85      91    0.10     538     533    FRI 15Z 25-MAR  -1.6    -9.0    1010      78      74    0.02     542     533    FRI 18Z 25-MAR  -0.5    -8.8    1013      71      57    0.02     543     533 

OLU

WED 18Z 23-MAR   3.0    -0.2    1007      91      97    0.06     553     548    WED 21Z 23-MAR   2.0    -2.6    1007      92      91    0.10     552     546    THU 00Z 24-MAR   0.9    -3.8    1010      90      94    0.36     551     543    THU 03Z 24-MAR  -0.4    -5.4    1013      90      98    0.27     550     540    THU 06Z 24-MAR  -1.4    -7.1    1014      88     100    0.41     548     537    THU 09Z 24-MAR  -1.7    -7.5    1014      87      98    0.15     546     535    THU 12Z 24-MAR  -2.3    -5.5    1015      85      94    0.27     545     534    THU 15Z 24-MAR  -2.5    -5.6    1016      79      87    0.05     546     533    THU 18Z 24-MAR  -1.0    -4.5    1016      76      46    0.05     547     534 

 

 

4.43 QPF?!?!???

[NEJeremy]

OMA please

[Geos]

4.43 QPF?!?!???

 

I get 3.89"

 

Edit: I got 4.1" for UGN. About 3.9" of that is frozen.

I can see why the EURO is painting higher totals near the lake.

 

For lake enhancement purposes. 

 

[Money]

SREF Plumes:

 

MKE: 

 

Mean: 2.37

Highest: 10.52

Lowest: 0.00

 

MSN:

 

Mean: 4.57

Highest: 25.33

Lowest 0.00

 

Majority above 5 

 

LSE: 

 

Mean: 7.84

Highest: 25.00

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

 

OSH:

 

Mean: 7.86

Highest: 19.00

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

 

GRB:

 

Mean: 7.27

Highest: 24.80

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

[gosaints]

SREF Plumes:

 

MKE:

 

Mean: 2.37

Highest: 10.52

Lowest: 0.00

 

MSN:

 

Mean: 4.57

Highest: 25.33

Lowest 0.00

 

Majority above 5

 

LSE:

 

Mean: 7.84

Highest: 25.00

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

 

OSH:

 

Mean: 7.86

Highest: 19.00

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

 

GRB:

 

Mean: 7.27

Highest: 24.80

Lowest: 0.00

 

Majority above 10

Where r u again? Fond du lac?

[james1976]

how far out is nam?

[Geos]

NAM about the same with the initial low over Hastings at 18z Tuesday.

[Money]

NAM about the same with the initial low over Hastings at 18z Tuesday.

 

Early guess is it comes north again. HP to the north is def weaker and more north this run so far.

[Money]

Yeah this is def going farther north than 18z looking at HR 51. 

[Geos]

Yeah this is def going farther north than 18z looking at HR 51. 

 

The timing of the front is huge between the NAM and EURO.

 

6-7pm on the EURO, Midnight-1am on the NAM.

[Geos]

Precip placement looks similar so far. 

Freezing is a tad further south this run.

 

[gosaints]

Still like msp in the end. Just not a set up that screams south to me

[Geos]

Low doesn't poke above I-80. Sleet/zr a little closer here this run.

It's the NAM in its poor range right now...

 

[Money]

SWEET 16!!!!!!

[Madtown]

Upset city!!!! Notre Dame meet your fate

[Geos]

[MKEstorm]

Wisconsin...SWEET 16!!!

[MKEstorm]

The low does seem to travel more west to east...and does go south of Chicago.

[Money]

Nam actually takes the low south of Chicago this run

[Money]

Nam actually takes the low south of Chicago this run

[Geos]

The low does seem to travel more west to east...and does go south of Chicago.

 

Northward bleeding stopped - for now?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

SWEET 16!!!!!!

 

Yep, great times for Wisconsin.  Even as an MU grad, I love me some Badger basketball!

[james1976]

NAM trolling my county with a foot. Sweet

[Money]

Here is where the 0z NAM takes it:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160321/00Z/f84/crefptypemw.png

[Money]

4KM NAM is slightly SE at HR 60 and about the same strength. 

[gosaints]

4KM NAM is slightly SE at HR 60 and about the same strength.

Its warmer at 850

[Geos]

4km NAM lags the front like the 12km too.

 

Main thing is, what model is handling the high strength correctly?

[james1976]

4km NAM lags the front like the 12km too.

 

Main thing is, what model is handling the high strength correctly?

Prolly none of them. lol

[Money]

gosaints is really rooting this thing north 

[gosaints]

gosaints is really rooting this thing north

Just got feeling. Set up doesnt scream south trend to me and the 4km is warmer at 850. Nothing about that statement was false.

[bud2380]

Stupid badgers. Sorry I hate them. Although I did root for them in the final four last year over Kentucky and I was lucky enough to be there in person for that one. Nobody has it tougher than the UNI Panthers though after the largest collapse in ncaa history.

[bud2380]

There is still a huge gap between what the euro is showing and just about every other model. I seriously doubt we see snow as far south as what the euro is showing. Not this time of year

[Geos]

Some interesting observations/thought from Minnesota Meso of AMWX. (randyinchamplin on this site: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2016/03/a-final-hurrah-for-snow-lovers.html#comment-form )

 

I have been watching what the models have been showing for snowfall the last couple of days, and while the GFS has been impressive I have serious doubts if it's depiction is reality. While both the Euro and GFS look promising at the upper levels, there is a big difference in how they are handling the winds at the 850mb level, which is normally very near where the low level jet is setting up.

Both models are hinting that the western GOM will be open, and I agree that it will be. Both models are also showing winds originating out of or near the Senora region being wrapped into the base of the developing 850mp low pressure system as the system starts to form on the lea side of the Rockies.

So where is the difference? Both models show that the winds coming out of the western GOM will come ashore and move to the NE towards Des Moines and the Chicago area and points SE, and that is where the level moisture will reside, the air that is being sucked into the base of the developing 850mb low pressure from the SW will be dry.

I believe the GFS is underplaying the 850mb winds out of the sw and placing more emphasis on the winds coming out of the GOM being ingested into the system to early, thus it strengthens it to fast and deepens it to quickly. Trust me the Euro also develops a very strong system, but it forms just slightly later when the upper level dynamics catch with the low level jet. I do suspect a historic March snowstorm will impact points SE of a line from Albert Lea to Red Wing up to the Seboygen WI area.

[Money]

GFS nearly identical through HR 51.

[Geos]

GFS about an hour faster with the front on Tuesday night.

[bud2380]

Gfs looks like it's sticking to its guns