Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 The second month of meteorological spring is almost upon us. It's looking for like the beginning of March right now though. GFS 500mb pattern for the 2nd. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 The second month of meteorological spring is almost upon us. It's looking for like the beginning of March right now though. GFS 500mb pattern for the 2nd. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032512/gfs_z500a_namer_34.pngMore like average highs in early February! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 More like average highs in early February! Yeah that's more like it. The end of the EURO had highs in the 40s for northern GA! Freezing conditions all the way down to the border of OK. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 00z Euro runs of daytime highs for the 2nd/3rd... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 Let's just get on with Spring as this really sucks. Enough cold already and no more flakes! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 12z Euro has -20C 850's near GoSaints area Day 9....LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 12z Euro has -20C 850's near GoSaints area Day 9....LOLWill live through it... +8 for march brrrr.. Wont last long.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 Will live through it... +8 for march brrrr.. Wont last long..That's not the point...lol...phenomenal to see this type of pattern during a muted PV...especially in early April~! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 +8 is phenomenal as well... Different strokes for different fokes.Wonder if April does a complete reversal before the Midwest/Lakes pop back into a real Spring like pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201604.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 25, 2016 Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 Anytime there has been sustained cold this year the pattern overall has been terrible for any sensible weather 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I suspect this coming cool down will hold these lake temps pretty much where they are now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 I think the 18z was even colder. 0z almost out. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 12z on Sunday, April 3rd: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f204/sfctconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 12z on Sunday, April 3rd: Trough is coming trending towards the front range. 40s into northern FL! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 You don't see to many highs in the 15-20 degree range with hardly any snowcover in April: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f216/sfctconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160326/00Z/f216/sfctcfsranomconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 0z is flipping cold. Some snow in the upper Midwest as well. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 0z is flipping cold. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032600/gfs_T850_ncus_35.png Some snow in the upper Midwest as well. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032600/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.pngHeck, thats almost record breaking in january Edit: I lied, I was looking at the anomaly map and thought that was actual temps. I should really quit this. Don't ask how or why I thought those were actual temps lol. That takes a special kind of stupid which I apparently possess. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2016 Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 2 days max on the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2016 12z is more or less the same. Question is, is that the end of the troughs. Looking at the last few frames that Aleutian trough seems parked there and is pumping the west coast ridge. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 27, 2016 Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 Backing off has begun. Ensemble spread huge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 -16°- -20° 850mb air makes it into southern WI still pretty cold for early April. High in the 20s here forecasted for next Sunday on the EURO. Nice snowstorm for the upper Midwest around Day 9 and then another trough behind it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 27, 2016 Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 Slowly but.surely drifting further and further east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 27, 2016 Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 So, the cold coming late next week is certainly not welcome by me. Not when we will be in early April by then. My highs are expected to be near freezing or lower and lows in the teens with snowsqualls. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 27, 2016 Report Share Posted March 27, 2016 Gfs now.one day in low 30s here then.back to the forties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 A little off topic here but this is too cool to not share. How many of you remember the classic weather channel local forecast? I loved the extended forecast graphics. Well a website called weatherdaddy has exact replicas of the old twc local forecasts. Below is a screenshot of what it looks like. I chose billings, MT because they have snow in the forecast and I wanted to see the old school "snow" graphic/forecast. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 A little off topic here but this is too cool to not share. How many of you remember the classic weather channel local forecast? I loved the extended forecast graphics. Well a website called weatherdaddy has exact replicas of the old twc local forecasts. Below is a screenshot of what it looks like. I chose billings, MT because they have snow in the forecast and I wanted to see the old school "snow" graphic/forecast. image.pngI just had a flash back of when I was a kid watching the TWC! Those were the days...I remember waking up in the morning and getting butterflies in my stomach hoping to see Snow in the forecast. Nothing beats those long write ups and big snowflakes in your local forecast indicating heavy snow and wind! Thanks for sharing! Thought I'd never see those graphics again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 I just had a flash back of when I was a kid watching the TWC! Those were the days...I remember waking up in the morning and getting butterflies in my stomach hoping to see Snow in the forecast. Nothing beats those long write ups and big snowflakes in your local forecast indicating heavy snow and wind! Thanks for sharing! Thought I'd never see those graphics again.Loved the "wintry mix" icon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Little bit of snow showing up in the next 10 days. GEFS has the trough directed a bit more south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming! Same here. I miss the days when there was heavy snow warnings! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 The much anticipated artic outbreak has died Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Nothing below 40 here for the next 10 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Yeah where it just says "snow" in the last part of the graphic showing the extended forecast always made me get excited when I saw that, thinking there was a big snowstorm coming! I remember watching their "extended forecast" segment circa winter of '85/86 and they were showing out in the 5-8? day range. They were pretty accurate back then (in a general synoptic wx sense) and if you saw the "heavy snow" white shaded area overhead, it usually verified in the form of a storm of some sort. That's the graphic I got most excited to see. As I recall in those days, there weren't many options for looking that far ahead for clues about when the next chance for significant snow would come. NWS's forecasts (and even Skillling's) at that range never indicated more than a "chance of snow" moniker. Somebody on Amwx forums a few yrs back had posted saved TV screen caps from their local TWC broadcast during the March '93 Storm of the Century while their town in the Carolinas was under a Bliz Warning. This was somewhere far south where that NEVER happens, and here it was March already. Crazy cool text output with a totally red screen like "this is the end of the world as you know it" graphics (wish I had a link) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 The much anticipated artic outbreak has died (j/k) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Signals pointing towards an impressive ridge popping by mid month and holding after the coming cool down to open the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 I remember watching their "extended forecast" segment circa winter of '85/86 and they were showing out in the 5-8? day range. They were pretty accurate back then (in a general synoptic wx sense) and if you saw the "heavy snow" white shaded area overhead, it usually verified in the form of a storm of some sort. That's the graphic I got most excited to see. As I recall in those days, there weren't many options for looking that far ahead for clues about when the next chance for significant snow would come. NWS's forecasts (and even Skillling's) at that range never indicated more than a "chance of snow" moniker. Somebody on Amwx forums a few yrs back had posted saved TV screen caps from their local TWC broadcast during the March '93 Storm of the Century while their town in the Carolinas was under a Bliz Warning. This was somewhere far south where that NEVER happens, and here it was March already. Crazy cool text output with a totally red screen like "this is the end of the world as you know it" graphics (wish I had a link) Here is the red screen you mentioned. Weatherdaddy has that too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 28, 2016 Report Share Posted March 28, 2016 Geos is sweating looking at his historic cold fizzle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 Still looking like a pretty cold weekend on tap. Ok, it's not historic but close to 15° below normal here. Except for 4 days out of the 0z run it stays in the 30s and 40s around here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 29, 2016 Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 Still looking like a pretty cold weekend on tap. Ok, it's not historic but close to 15° below normal here. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032900/gfs_T2ma_namer_23.png Except for 4 days out of the 0z run it stays in the 30s and 40s around here. Ok, but why exactly would anyone have any use for that at this time of year when it's spring? I sure don't Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2016 Report Share Posted March 29, 2016 CFSv2 flipping back and forth this month trying to figure out what to do in April. Maybe this time it's right. Looks warm but rather dry overall. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201604.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201604.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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