April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

There were two anomalies that threw off the standard line of thinking last year. One was (obviously) the development of a prolific, record-shattering +QBO, which matured/downwelled rapidly (and was already affecting the tropical tropopause, mass/momentum fluxes, and other wave interactions by midsummer, before it truly hit 50mb).

 

The other was the morphing of the (June) secondary standing wave in the IO into an MJO wave, which ended up constructively feeding back w/ the developing Niño/+AAM background during July.

 

Both of these phenomena assisted in the development of the Niño during its most crucial developmental window. If there are wild cards this year, they have yet to show themselves.

[James Jones]

There were two anomalies that threw off the standard line of thinking last year. One was (obviously) the development of a prolific, record-shattering +QBO, which matured/downwelled rapidly (and was already affecting the tropical tropopause, mass/momentum fluxes, and other wave interactions by midsummer, before it truly hit 50mb).

 

The other was the morphing of the (June) secondary standing wave in the IO into an MJO wave, which ended up constructively feeding back w/ the developing Niño/+AAM background during July.

 

Both of these phenomena assisted in the development of the Niño during its most crucial developmental window. If there are wild cards this year, they have yet to show themselves.

The wildcard is mother nature granting a Cascade foothills yuppie his desire for another warm Summer. Seemed to work out the last 3 years. 

 

(Not a shot at you Tim - you were pretty much spot on the last couple years, even if your forecasting methods weren't exactly scientific).

[TT-SEA]

The wildcard is mother nature granting a Cascade foothills yuppie his desire for another warm Summer. Seemed to work out the last 3 years. 

 

(Not a shot at you Tim - you were pretty much spot on the last couple years, even if your forecasting methods weren't exactly scientific).

 

Not a shot at me?   

 

BTW - I don't need a record warm summer to be happy with summer.   I am happy with most summers here.

[James Jones]

Not a shot at me?   

 

BTW - I don't need a record warm summer to be happy with summer.   I am happy with most summers here.

Nah, it was just supposed to be a dumb joke. If "Cascade foothills yuppie" offends you, my bad.

 

I'm aware that you don't need a record warm summer.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, it was just supposed to be a dumb joke. If "Cascade foothills yuppie" offends you, my bad.

 

I'm aware that you don't need a record warm summer.

 

 

I am sure you were referring to my neighbors.  

[Front Ranger]

Say whatever you want... it will still likely be warmer than normal here.    I have heard that so many times but it just works out that way.   

 

50% chance OLM ends up below normal this summer.

[Front Ranger]

Taking a little stroll down memory lane... If I remember correctly we received nearly 4" of snow.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

505 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2008

 

...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON

INCLUDING SNOHOMISH COUNTY AND THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS..

 

...SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS OF SNOHOMISH

COUNTY AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE CASCADES...

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-

WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-

505 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2008

 

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY...

 

EXPECT SNOW TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS OF SNOHOMISH

COUNTY AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE CASCADES. EXPECT SLUSHY ROADS IN

THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY.

PEOPLE VENTURING INTO THE CASCADES CAN EXPECT SNOW COVERED

HIGHWAYS TONIGHT. THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS DEVELOPED

OVER SNOHOMISH COUNTY THIS EVENING. AN INCH OF SNOW HAS ALREADY

FALLEN ON SOME OF THE HILLS AROUND EVERETT AND LAKE STEVENS.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS

IS VERY UNSTABLE...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY

TO A QUARTER MILE OF LESS AT TIMES.

 

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

715 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2008

 

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW

WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM. UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN AROUND PAINE FIELD AND FROM LAKE STEVENS

TO SNOHOMISH AND MONROE...WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES WAS ON THE GROUND

AS OF 7 PM ON SOME OF THE HILLS. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT SLUSHY

ROADS IN SNOHOMISH COUNTY TONIGHT.

 

 

 

Truly a remarkable event.

[Front Ranger]

Dewey's thought on summer comes to mind... like tuning in to see a new Family Guy and its a rerun. But its still funny and its still Family Guy.

 

Question to the Family Guy fans on here... do you like American Dad as well? Roger is one of the best characters on TV.

 

Family Guy peaked about 10 years ago.

[TT-SEA]

Family Guy peaked about 10 years ago.

No way.

 

I don't like the ones from 2005 and prior. Much more witty and clever now.

[Front Ranger]

No way.

 

I don't like the ones from 2005 and prior. Much more witty and clever now.

 

My favorite period was 2005-08.

[Jesse]

Dewey's thought on summer comes to mind... like tuning in to see a new Family Guy and its a rerun. But its still funny and its still Family Guy.

 

Question to the Family Guy fans on here... do you like American Dad as well? Roger is one of the best characters on TV.

Except for those re-runs that had you climbing the walls, your wife threatening to force a relocation back to San Diego and the entire forum questioning your sanity. Intense episodes...

[Jesse]

I am following weather as a casual observer until about October...

Keep us posted!!

[TT-SEA]

Except for those re-runs that had you climbing the walls, your wife threatening to force a relocation back to San Diego and the entire forum questioning your sanity. Intense episodes...

 

No... there have been plenty of nice summers that were not extremely warm or record-setting hot.    2010 was really depressing due to the clouds... it was the cloudiest summer in Seattle history.   It was extreme on the flip side.    Normal is just fine.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Keep us posted!!

 

Maybe by then you'll be living out in Whitefish and posting in the Mtn West forum!

[Front Ranger]

No... there have been plenty of nice summers that were not extremely warm or record-setting hot.    2010 was really depressing due to the clouds... it was the cloudiest summer in Seattle history.   It was extreme on the flip side.    Normal is just fine.  

 

Summer 1988 would probably be the closest to a summer that would make both you and Jesse happy. Fairly cool overall from Jun-Sep, but dry and lots of sunshine between mid June and mid September, one dramatic heat event in early September, and then an impressive late season cold event...48/36 day at OLM on 9/24!

[Jesse]

Maybe by then you'll be living out in Whitefish and posting in the Mtn West forum!

I wish.

[James Jones]

Summer 1988 would probably be the closest to a summer that would make both you and Jesse happy. Fairly cool overall from Jun-Sep, but dry and lots of sunshine between mid June and mid September, one dramatic heat event in early September, and then an impressive late season cold event...48/36 day at OLM on 9/24!

Incredible gradient that day. OLM was 50/35, PDX was 74/52.

[Front Ranger]

Looks warm.

 

Should be close to some daily records, probably will see a few fall. 

 

Not likely historic, though. Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 range in the Puget Sound region on Thursday. Those levels have been reached and even exceeded considerably earlier.

 

3/19-3/20, 1928

 

Landsburg: 84

Olympia: 78

University of WA: 77

Everett: 75

 

3/15, 1947

 

Landsburg: 80

 

3/11, 1941

 

Kent: 77

 

3/29, 2004

 

Kent: 81

OLM: 79

 

There was also an event the second week of March 1934 that pushed many locations away from the water into the 75-80 range for several days. Landsburg was above 70 for almost a week straight, insane for that time of year.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS only has 70 at SEA on Thursday.

 

Shows 82 for PDX.

[Deweydog]

Maybe by then you'll be living out in Whitefish and posting in the Mtn West forum!

Ouch!

[GHweatherChris]

GFS MOS only has 70 at SEA on Thursday.

 

Shows 82 for PDX.

Looks warmer than that.

[Deweydog]

We went to Five Guys this evening and the fries were a little overcooked. Any thoughts on what this might mean for summer?

[GHweatherChris]

We went to Five Guys this evening and the fries were a little overcooked. Any thoughts on what this might mean for summer?

We're screwed.

[Jesse]

Ouch!

Living in a beautiful area with a great climate by then would certainly be a punch in the gut.

[Deweydog]

Living in a beautiful area with a great climate by then would certainly be a punch in the gut.

Came off like he was wishing you into forum obscurity.

[Jesse]

Came off like he was wishing you into forum obscurity.

 

Oh, I got it. Forum obscurity loves company.

[Deweydog]

Oh, I got it. Forum obscurity loves company.

It's rough living above 1,100 feet ASL.

[Jesse]

Ensembles seems to keep delaying/mitigating to cool down in the wake of the big ridge. Could end up being a very warm month.

 

Nice to see some 30s in spots this morning, at least.

[TT-SEA]

Thursday night looks crazy warm... MM5 shows temps still near 70 at 2 a.m.

[Jesse]

Thursday night looks crazy warm... MM5 shows temps still near 70 at 2 a.m.

I wonder how many years there are where heat spikes in the first half of April have lead to very warm summers?

[TT-SEA]

I wonder how many years there are where heat spikes in the first half of April have lead to very warm summers?

 

Won't matter... we are in a new climate regime.  

 

Some records at SEA from this time of year include 1987, 1992, 2004 which were warm summers.

 

PDX records include years like 1987. 1992, 2004, 2009, and 2013.

[Jesse]

Won't matter... we are in a new climate regime.

 

Some records at SEA from this time of year include 1987, 1992, 2004 which were warm summers.

Uh oh. In that case this new regime may just bite us in the a**!

[TT-SEA]

Uh oh. In that case this new regime may just bite us in the a**!

 

 

Maybe!   I added PDX records after your post.  

[Jesse]

Maybe! I added PDX records after your post.

I saw.

[TT-SEA]

I saw.

 

Nice list. 

 

You have made me feel a little better about my summer forecast by asking that question.  

[Jesse]

Nice list.

 

You have made me feel a little better about my summer forecast by asking that question.

I always try to do my part to help the mentally ill.

[TT-SEA]

I always try to do my part to help the mentally ill.

 

 

Yeah... just crazy to forecast a warm summer because the signs are there for a warm summer.      

 

And next year when my forecast for a cool summer is almost guaranteed... you will be praising me for objectivity.  

 

Its silly.   Sometimes its warm and sometimes its cold.    Lately its been mostly warm.   It will change soon enough.

[Jesse]

Nice list.

 

You have made me feel a little better about my summer forecast by asking that question.

Even though it didn't matter a few minutes ago? It matters now because it shows what you want it to?

 

Science!

[TT-SEA]

Even though it didn't matter a few minutes ago? It matters now because it shows what you want it to?

 

Science!

 

 

Just relax dude.    I had noticed it before.    Seems to support the warm summer forecast as opposed to having records from this time of year all from cold summers.   Might not mean anything.  

[Jesse]

Just relax dude. I had noticed it before. Seems to support the warm summer forecast as opposed to having records from this time of year all from cold summers. Might not mean anything.

I'm relaxed. Your methodology is very shaky and reeks of confirmation bias, though. Seems like a disservice to the scientific method to let that kind of thing slide. Especially when it is peddled with such confidence, almost as if summer already happened and it is fact.