April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Not a chance unless we are staying with a strong Nino all year.

 

Chilly September? SHUT IT DOWN!

[TT-SEA]

Chilly September? SHUT IT DOWN!

Pretty easy one there.

[Jesse]

Pretty easy one there.

 

Knee jerk really.

[TT-SEA]

Knee jerk really.

 

 

Not there... 1941 is not a reasonable analog.    Cooler weather tends to come early with strong Ninos.

 

1942 is more likely... a warm and sunny September going into a Nina.

[MossMan]

Rain is back, ground is getting wet. At least the pollen will be getting knocked down a bit, it has been quite thick the last several days.

[TT-SEA]

Rain is back, ground is getting wet. At least the pollen will be getting knocked down a bit, it has been quite thick the last several days.

 

 

Should be a gorgeous weekend... getting rain out of the way mid-week is perfect.

[Jesse]

Not there... 1941 is not a reasonable analog.    Cooler weather tends to come early with strong Ninos.

 

1942 is more likely... a warm and sunny September going into a Nina.

 

That may be the case with 1941. But you are automatically against any analog that features a cool September, because you have some sort of obsession with figuring out what kind of weather Jim or I may enjoy, then rooting against it.

[TT-SEA]

That may be the case with 1941. But you are automatically against any analog that features a cool September, because you have some sort of obsession with figuring out what kind of weather Jim or I may enjoy, then rooting against it.

 

Someone is really sensitive!    

 

I think Jim would like a cold and snowy January and almost every analog I look at has cold and snow in January.

 

It is what it is.  

[Jesse]

Someone is really sensitive!

 

I think Jim would like a cold and snowy January and almost every analog I look at has cold and snow in January.

 

It is what it is.

If you ever have a chance to string the words warm, humid and September together in the same sentence, you can't help yourself. It's ok to admit that.

 

You can stomach forecasting a cold January because that is something you would like to see too.

[Tyler Mode]

First sub-60 high for April. 57.6 degrees today.

[bainbridgekid]

It was just 45 degrees when I left work today at 3:45.

 

Winterish.

[Phil]

1942 is more likely... a warm and sunny September going into a Nina.

Nope.

 

- Since 1950, there have been eight J/J/A Niño-to-Niña transitions followed by colder than average Septembers in the PNW, while only two J/J/A Niño-to-Niña transitions were followed by warmer than average Septembers.

 

- Since 1950, there have only been two years with a J/J/A ONI

 

So, statistically speaking, a colder than average September is more likely.

[TT-SEA]

Nope.

 

- Since 1950, there have been eight J/J/A Niño-to-Niña transitions followed by colder than average Septembers in the PNW, while only two J/J/A Niño-to-Niña transitions were followed by warmer than average Septembers.

 

- Since 1950, there have only been two years with a J/J/A ONI

 

So, statistically speaking, a colder than average September is more likely.

 

 

 

Yes.   September of 1995 was colder than normal right?   

 

Second warmest ever in Portland at the time!  

 

[Deweydog]

Greens, yellows and reds oh my!

[TT-SEA]

Greens, yellows and reds oh my!

 

 

Watering our garden nicely.  

[Phil]

Yes. September of 1995 was colder than normal right?

 

Second warmest ever in Portland at the time!

 

Did I say that? That was one of the two warmer than normal Septembers, the other being 1998. The vast majority of Septembers following Niño-to-Niña transitions during J/J/A have been cooler than average, so statistically speaking, a cooler than average September is more likely.

 

So, deal with it.

[Jesse]

Did I say that? That was one of the two warmer than normal Septembers, the other being 1998. The vast majority of Septembers following Niño-to-Niña transitions during J/J/A have been cooler than average, so statistically speaking, a cooler than average September is more likely.

 

So, deal with it.

You're gonna make Tim's head explode.

[Jesse]

Greens, yellows and reds oh my!

Rainy and breezy!

[Deweydog]

Did I say that? That was one of the two warmer than normal Septembers, the other being 1998. The vast majority of Septembers following Niño-to-Niña transitions during J/J/A have been cooler than average, so statistically speaking, a cooler than average September is more likely.

 

So, deal with it.

We only deal in irrational certainties here.

 

So, yeah...

[TT-SEA]

Did I say that? That was one of the two warmer than normal Septembers, the other being 1998. The vast majority of Septembers following Niño-to-Niña transitions during J/J/A have been cooler than average, so statistically speaking, a cooler than average September is more likely.

 

So, deal with it.

Your maps don't equate to colder than average here.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at strong Nino to Nina transitions since 1950 and September at SEA:

 

Above normal - 1966, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998

Below normal - 1954, 1983, 2010 

 

2010 was very slightly below normal.

 

Side note... it appears that 2016 is already running warmer than all of those years.   Warming climate?

[luminen]

I saw a nice big bolt of lightning over North Vancouver just now. Lots of heavy rain. 

[Phil]

Your maps don't equate to colder than average here.

The NOAA/ESRL maps are the most accurate, data-rich, spatially-representative product available today.

 

Again, deal with it.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like decent southerly flow aloft for early next week for some more widespread convective potential.

[TT-SEA]

The NOAA/ESRL maps are the most accurate, data-rich, spatially-representative product available today.

 

Again, deal with it.

 

 

See post above.   That is what actually happened here and that is all that really matters to us.  Sorry.  

 

Plus I think 2016 is going to the be the warmest Nino - Nina summer of all those years based on what has already occurred.  

[Phil]

Looking at strong Nino to Nina transitions since 1950 and September at SEA:

 

Above normal - 1966, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998

Below normal - 1954, 1983, 2010

 

2010 was very slightly below normal.

 

Side note... it appears that 2016 is already running warmer than all of those years. Warming climate?

Now you're making s**t up. Please knock it off.

 

You're missing a ton of years, both 1988 and 1973 featured colder than average Septembers, and 1966 doesn't even qualify as a Niña transition.

 

Here's September 1988:

 

 

Here's September 1973:

 

 

So, you're left with 1995 and 1998, just as I said beforehand.

[TT-SEA]

Now you're making s**t up. Please knock it off.

 

You're missing a ton of years, both 1988 and 1973 featured colder than average Septembers, and 1966 doesn't even qualify as a Niña transition.

 

Here's September 1988:

 

image.png

 

Here's September 1973:

 

image.png

 

So, you're left with 1995 and 1998, just as I said beforehand.

 

 

Disrespectful.   Just let it go.   

 

It was above normal here in 5 of the 8 years that I listed in September.   You said 8 years.   Those are the ones that went from some kind of moderate to strong Nino to a Nina.

 

And 2016 has beaten them all to this point in the year as well.   I suspect that 2016 will be the warmest Nina to Nina transition year since 1950.  Pretty easily actually.

 

Side note... September of 1973 was +1.5 at SEA.    A warm than normal month here.    That is a fact and you cannot change it.    

[Phil]

Here's every Spring/Summer Niño-to-Niña transition since 1950 aggregated together. Matching ars are 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010:

 

September:

 

 

J/A/S Trimonthly:

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice soaking rain... very happy given the warm weather ahead.

[TT-SEA]

Now you're making s**t up. Please knock it off.

 

You're missing a ton of years, both 1988 and 1973 featured colder than average Septembers, and 1966 doesn't even qualify as a Niña transition.

 

Here's September 1988:

 

image.png

 

Here's September 1973:

 

image.png

 

So, you're left with 1995 and 1998, just as I said beforehand.

Here's every Spring/Summer Niño-to-Niña transition since 1950 aggregated together. Matching ars are 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010:

September:

image.png

J/A/S Trimonthly:

image.png

Maps!

 

Wait until October and let's look at the departures from normal in our specific area. Deal? It's likely going to be warm here.

[Phil]

Disrespectful.   Just let it go.   

 

It was above normal here in 5 of the 8 years that I listed in September.   You said 8 years.   Those are the ones that went from some kind of moderate to strong Nino to a Nina.

 

And 2016 has beaten them all to this point in the year as well.   I suspect that 2016 will be the warmest Nina to Nina transition year since 1950.  Pretty easily actually.

 

Side note... September of 1973 was +1.5 at SEA.    A warm than normal month here.    That is a fact and you cannot change it.

 

Again, you cannot use a single station to accurately gauge the monthly departure over a region. There's no way to account for local UHI/contamination, microclimactic variances, etc. That's just plain reality, so please come to terms with this and expand your horizons into a more objective realm.

[TT-SEA]

Again, you cannot use a single station to accurately gauge the monthly departure over a region. There's no way to account for local UHI/contamination, microclimactic variances, etc. That's just plain reality, so please come to terms with this and expand your horizons into a more objective realm.

Don't care about any of that... all those things still apply to where we live.

[TT-SEA]

So at the end of a warm summer... you will say it would have been cold except for UHI and microclimates and a bunch of other excuses. Whatever. Does not change what happened.

[Front Ranger]

Looking at strong Nino to Nina transitions since 1950 and September at SEA:

 

Above normal - 1966, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998

Below normal - 1954, 1983, 2010

 

2010 was very slightly below normal.

 

Side note... it appears that 2016 is already running warmer than all of those years. Warming climate?

You again have to keep in mind that going by SEA these days will give you a warming climate x3. As in, SEA has a warming trend 3x that of normal warming.

[Phil]

Don't care about any of that... all those things still apply to where we live.

Unless you live in Seattle, no, they don't.

[TT-SEA]

Unless you live in Seattle, no, they don't.

Same results in my area. A warm Seattle is good for us.

[Phil]

So at the end of a warm summer... you will say it would have been cold except for UHI and microclimates and a bunch of other excuses. Whatever. Does not change what happened.

No, you'll probably be throwing a temper tantrum by the 2nd week of August.

[Front Ranger]

So at the end of a warm summer... you will say it would have been cold except for UHI and microclimates and a bunch of other excuses. Whatever. Does not change what happened.

It's not hard to compare SEA vs OLM. One consistently runs anomalies +1 to +1.5 warmer than the other these days.

[TT-SEA]

No, you'll probably be throwing a temper tantrum by the 2nd week of August.

Not a chance. I know JAS will be really nice no matter how you slice it. It almost always is nice even in the coldest years.

 

You really don't know our weather.

[TT-SEA]

It's not hard to compare SEA vs OLM. One consistently runs anomalies +1 to +1.5 warmer than the other these days.

Glad most of our summer activities are in the Seattle area.