2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Snowshoe]

Just went Warning with the afternoon package!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ035&warncounty=WIC141&firewxzone=WIZ035&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.UwUerWJdUoo

[Tom]

A bunch of my buddies are taking out their snow mobiles this weekend up at Castle Rock Lake.  I'm thinking of going with them if they have room.  Going to be some nice powder up that way.

[Snowshoe]

A bunch of my buddies are taking out their snow mobiles this weekend up at Castle Rock Lake.  I'm thinking of going with them if they have room.  Going to be some nice powder up that way.

I dont know how powdery it will be. High of 43 today and we're sitting right in the battle ground between heavy snow or sleet and frz rain.

 

My grid from GRB says 7", 15 miles south across the county line the grid from ARX says 2-4. The 1st time this storm came through the cycle I got more ice than snow and I haven't seen my road or driveway since. Here's hoping for more snow this go around.

 

If you can make the trip do it! After the ride stop in to the Dirty Turtle. I've had some fun there!

[Geos]

ORD down to 7" I read here.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?units=0&region=us&station=KORD&ey=2014&em=2&ed=22&eh=21

 

Not good.

 

[Madtown]

thems the breaks I guess heres to swimming in slush tomorrow

[East Dubzz]

Looks like some precip is starting to break out down south.

[Madtown]

Well I know it won't snow now just checked accuweather, they got me down for 4.4"

[Tom]

Geo's, that is a pretty neat link to follow snow depth.  I wonder if that is a model of some sort instead of actual measurements.  I swear, I can't see the snow depth being 7".  Maybe in areas where there was drifting.

 

 

Snowshoe, the Dirty Turtle is fun in the summer time.  Things can get outta control over there.  All my friends have places near the Pavilion Bar in Friendship, WI so we stay local or even go to Northern Bay Resort.

[East Dubzz]

Wow the RGEM is very juicy.

[Tom]

Holy crap...that would cause severe flooding and say good bye to the snow pack!

[Iowawx]

Still looking like a close call for us in Cedar Rapids. Now under a winter storm warning for 2-5. At least it's something. SLP just needs to go a tad SE.

[james1976]

DMX calling for 5-9 for me and possible thundersnow. would be epic!

[james1976]

plus 50mph wind gusts. man if this thing unfolds like this it will easily be the storm of the winter over here.

[6789]

While I am upset about loosing this storm, I couldn't be happier with the much milder weather we have had the past couple of days, around 48 right now and I'm loving it! Bring on the severe storms already haha! 

[gosaints]

Rgem is wide spread 12 inches. Big blizzard

[Geos]

Geo's, that is a pretty neat link to follow snow depth.  I wonder if that is a model of some sort instead of actual measurements.  I swear, I can't see the snow depth being 7".  Maybe in areas where there was drifting.

 

 

Snowshoe, the Dirty Turtle is fun in the summer time.  Things can get outta control over there.  All my friends have places near the Pavilion Bar in Friendship, WI so we stay local or even go to Northern Bay Resort.

 

That would be bye, bye snow pack for sure. That would be out of control.

[Sciascia]

I'm fully expecting to wake up Friday morning to little to no snow remaining on the ground. The question will be: Can one more deep snowpack be created for the 3rd time this winter? Personally, I have my doubts this late in the game.

[Geos]

I'm fully expecting to wake up Friday morning to little to no snow remaining on the ground. The question will be: Can one more deep snowpack be created for the 3rd time this winter? Personally, I have my doubts this late in the game.

 

It's hard because you need to lay down snow, then have a rainstorm afterwards to compact it - then have it refreeze. Thing of it is, in March a rainstorm usually comes with convection and it wipes out your gains.

[Tony]

Well doesn't look like any front end snow snow for us on this one as I was clinging to some love from the NAM but it did cave to the rest of the models, but one heck of a rainstorm for many. With most of our snowpack being wipped out it will be a little harder to get double digit sub-zero nights. Also not too much happening so far for the early part of next week but I know that can change in a hurry.

[Snowshoe]

ORD down to 7" I read here.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?units=0&region=us&station=KORD&ey=2014&em=2&ed=22&eh=21

 

Not good.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/02/19/18/NAM_221_2014021918_F48_PCPIN_48_HR.png

I'm hugging the NAM right now.

[dubuque473]

[Money]

RAP showing .3-.5 qpf in S. WI tonight with 2m temps right around 30. Showing pretty good amount of fzr

[Scott26]

RAP showing .3-.5 qpf in S. WI tonight with 2m temps right around 30. Showing pretty good amount of fzr

Yup, same here for N IL. I'm surprised that a lot of offices seem to be downplaying the ZR.

[Madtown]

HPC has me in slight chance of 4" lol

[Geos]

I think with the winds off the lake it will keep temps up just enough to for plain rain.

[Money]

Some interesting developments in the HRRR/RAP.

 

HRRR now spitting out 4-6 across all of S. WI with .6-.8 QPF all frozen. RAP has been trending upwards with snow each run as well.

[Scott26]

Some interesting developments in the HRRR/RAP.

 

HRRR now spitting out 4-6 across all of S. WI with .6-.8 QPF all frozen. RAP has been trending upwards with snow each run as well.

Does the HRRR show any frozen precip for N IL? I'm not expecting much of anything, I'm just interested...

[Money]

Shows 2-4 IN of SN in the far northern tier of counties. Hard to tell though on FZR.

 

HRRR showing 2 IN per hour rates, (35-40) dbz as well in far n. il and s. wi

[Geos]

RPM shows a big slug of heavy rain (brief period of freezing rain) pulling through IL and into WI between 5-8 am tomorrow. 30 dbz+ on simulated radar.

 

Clouds are filling in quick, so that's going to limit the temperature drop tonight.

[Money]

My first call for these cities:

 

MKE:

 

3-4 IN of SN

Turning to rain in the late morning/aft

1 IN on the backside

Total 4-5

 

MSN:

 

3-5 Early AM

Rain

1-2 on backside

Total 4-7

 

ORD:

 

Freezing Rain (little if any accumlation. I think LM will keep them just warm enough)

Followed by 3/4 rain

 

I'll do some other cities later. That's my first call.

[Money]

HRRR/RAP show 35-40 dbz in a wide area, I think because of the convective side of things we could see places turning to snow in the heavier rates. It's going to be boarderline though, and it's gonna be the heavy wet stuff. If it does happen, there could be some very nice rates tomorrow morning with that amount of dbz, and with the models all showing .5+ qpf

[Madtown]

I remember a storm in late Feb either '13 or '12 where we were predicted to get rain/freezing rain and woke up to 6" of snow. Don't think its in the cards this time, but who knows had a torn achilles so the wife had to shovel the driveway

[Iowawx]

SLP right now appears to be lining up with the NAM so far. Also seems like it's a tad stronger than models are showing it. 00Z runs shouldn't show drastic changes but still looking at them.

[Madtown]

precip in southern ia already and flying

[Money]

I remember a storm in late Feb either '13 or '12 where we were predicted to get rain/freezing rain and woke up to 6" of snow. Don't think its in the cards this time, but who knows had a torn achilles so the wife had to shovel the driveway

 

Same type of system as this one, and one of the area offices said this is the type of storm that we won't know what's going to happen until a few hours before the precip starts. But when you have 35-40 dbz type of convection, it's not going to take much. In the NE the other week they had 850 mb temps of +7 yet they got 12+ inches of snow.

 

It's going to be interesting for sure, and HRRR/RAP are trending up qpf wise as we get closer to the event.

[Money]

LOT mentioned the same thing about how dynamic cooling could produce about a 2-3 hr period of very heavy snow in the N. part of their AFD. I can't copy and paste, but it's a good read.

[Geos]

If does snow in southeast WI tomorrow it's probably not even worth shoveling - as the rain will melt it away later.

 

Edge of the cloud deck just passed by. 

[Money]

If does snow in southeast WI tomorrow it's probably not even worth shoveling - as the rain will melt it away later.

 

Edge of the cloud deck just passed by. 

 

Mr negativity over here.

 

Miss the old Geos

[Madtown]

no clouds out here stary night as of now

[Tom]

I think Geo's is drained from shoveling his 2 lane driveway...am I right Geo's?