Tom Posted July 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 The PHX area was hit hard by a microburst last night with torrential rains. Nearly 2" of rain fell in less than 1 hour from a very slow moving severe cell. Check out these shots from a chopper... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 19, 2016 Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 @ PHX pics When I first glimpsed them, thought it was a TOG or a Nuke! Then realized neither made any sense. Still a crazy sight. Talk about the heavens opening up! Sheesh Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 @ PHX pics When I first glimpsed them, thought it was a TOG or a Nuke! Then realized neither made any sense. Still a crazy sight. Talk about the heavens opening up! Sheesh Its spectacular, right??? I absolutely love the Monsoon season out there in the valley. Conditions look ripe right now as the wind trajectory from the developing Anticyclone tugs moisture up from the Pacific and GOM. I almost feel like heading out there next week after my nieces b day party this weekend and enjoy the scenic beauty from the billowing cumulonimbus clouds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 19, 2016 Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 This mcs is really exploding over IA right now. Flood watches and warnings being hoisted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 19, 2016 Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 Those pics are awesome Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2016 In other news, a summer time Winter Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the Brook Range in AK... Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK359 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016AKZ206-200200-/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0007.160719T1400Z-160720T2000Z/NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS359 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOONAKDT WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THISMORNING TO NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY.* LOCATION...ABOVE 3500 FEET EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY.* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTERWEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 I was thinking about winter as I was sweating through my shirt and hat mowing the yard today. Love the words winter storm warnings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Very hot and humid weather forecast for Minneapolis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 It has mostly been a wet July for the corn belt...everyone from N IL/S WI and points east have been missing the rains where its needed. Lawns are becoming brown and bit dry. Hoping for a storm or two over the next couple days before the atmosphere becomes capped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 The trend in the CFSv2 is for a cooler and wetter August for the heartland as well as parts of the Lakes. This would fit the LRC pattern as we will be heading into the "wettest" part of the LRC cycle when we flip the calendar into August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201608.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201608.gif The end to the heat is in site...just gotta get through this weekend as the ridge retrogrades west and a NW Flow aloft starts developing by Sunday which will ignite storms along the "Ring of Fire". A more seasonal, if not, below normal pattern may set up by mid/late next week. 00z Euro suggests a much anticipated cool down later next week! Fits the cycling wx pattern. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016072000/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 It has mostly been a wet July for the corn belt...everyone from N IL/S WI and points east have been missing the rains where its needed. Lawns are becoming brown and bit dry. Hoping for a storm or two over the next couple days before the atmosphere becomes capped. Kinda small map, but I believe it is showing mby around the 1.5 to 2" shading which is a massive improvement over the (6) weeks from about mid-May to July 1st when totals were on the order of .7" the entire stretch. Good news is, the month's not over and as you said, the heat dome may bring us a side benefit stormy day or two. We're by no means "moist" in Marshall, but its so much better than a month ago! Edit: Oh, and that map delineates nicely (yellow shaded) where that cell Sunday night tracked right along the I-94 corridor Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Let the misery begin. 3pm obs is 95 degrees with 110 degree heat index. dewpoint is 77. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 I just saw that Des Moines Iowa has a temperature of 94 - heat index of 117 - and a dew point of 82. Wow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 I am only 94 temperature - 98 heat index- and dew point of 66. Might need a light jacket here in Holdrege. Ha 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Dew point map. Insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Dew point map. Insane. image.jpgIt's fascinating how crops can precipitate moisture back into the air causing higher dewpoints. Looking forward to the pattern change Week 1-2... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 @ Jaster/WestJim, I think you guys will be in a good spot to get some beneficial rains overnight tomorrow. Looks like a squall line forms from the north and heads south down LM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016072012/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_45.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016072012/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Already at a soupy 81F with a thick, humid airmass (77F dewpoint)....hope that line of storms in Wisco can hold together and make it down here by mid afternoon. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20160721.1324.gif It's packing quite the punch with winds of 70-80mph and hail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 The latest JMA Weeklies indicate the shift in the wx pattern Week 2, and probably through the opening couple weeks of August. A signal for a slight trough near the Midwest/Lakes region, albeit minimal, it should be welcomed along with the precipitation. It's interesting to see that a -NAO pattern has evolved near Greenland since July 1st. The JMA see's it continuing through Week 3 & 4. Suggesting, the CFSv2, may have the right idea as we approach Fall/Winter??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Looks like the area back home finally got a good rain today. My parents were saying things are looking really burnt out these days. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 @ Jaster/WestJim, I think you guys will be in a good spot to get some beneficial rains overnight tomorrow. Looks like a squall line forms from the north and heads south down LM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016072012/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_45.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016072012/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png Just got an (almost severe) cell hit us here in St. Joe and for a few min's the deluge looked more like a LES squall. This is great as it's been a much wetter July than June but the immediate lakeshore's been skipped a lot. Now if it can hold together for several counties inland mby will get yet another decent dose this month. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Yeah. Congrats Michigan. You folks were getting pretty parched up there from what I understand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 2pm....89 degrees with a depoint of 80! Not sure the reading is correct, but it has always been accurate at other times. Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 I think we reached our high of 89F before the outflow boundary knocked down temps to a comfortable 79F right now. Quite the different airmass off the lake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 We can dream. Here is barrow Alaska forecast. Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 4pm 92.2 with a dew of 81! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 I don't remember ever seeing heat index of 120. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 21, 2016 Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Hey all. I was in the hospital for a few days, but now I'm back following the weather. I'm kinda glad we missed out on the severe weather and heavy rain while I was away from my home/computer. It is truly awful out there today. The heat index has been well into the 110s all afternoon. If I was 100% healthy I might try mowing my neighbor's long grass this evening, but I'm still a little weak so there's no way I could do that. We've had plenty of rain this summer, but we could still use an inch after this heat. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 I don't remember ever seeing heat index of 120. image.jpgIt must feel atrocious out there. I can't even imagine how it feels to stand out there near a corn field! Hey all. I was in the hospital for a few days, but now I'm back following the weather. I'm kinda glad we missed out on the severe weather and heavy rain while I was away from my home/computer. It is truly awful out there today. The heat index has been well into the 110s all afternoon. If I was 100% healthy I might try mowing my neighbor's long grass this evening, but I'm still a little weak so there's no way I could do that. We've had plenty of rain this summer, but we could still use an inch after this heat.Glad your back in the saddle and feeling better. Some higher rez models have storms nearby Saturday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Looks like CPC has issued their August Outlook and pretty much is siding with the trends in the CFSv2 model. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif CFSv2 trends... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201608.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201608.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Latest HRRR model shows that line of severe storms near MSN making its way towards N IL. We missed this mornings line that hit MI, hope to see some beneficial rains later tonight. Parts of NE/IA may get in on the action as well. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072120/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_7.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016072120/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Click on the link below and you can see how the outflow boundary from this morning storms pushed quite a bit inland, but SW Flow reversed course and its knocking back on my door! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-200 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 21, 2016 Madtown getting pounded! http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20160721.2340.gif Call me crazy, but I'm about to go for a quick jog around the neighborhood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Nasty bow echo heading towards N IL....the clouds from the distance while I took my jog/sprints were getting dark. I love summer time nights like these! http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160722.0007.gif SPC just issued a brand new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of N IL... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0407_radar.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Ominous looking storm clouds near Lakemore, IL in McHenry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Definitely loving those trends on the CFSv2! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Well that was unexpected. Crazy storms around Madison 2.59in of rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 heat index topped at 113 at the airport in Omaha this evening. my thermometer had a 117 degree heat index! still 89 degrees at 11p and the dewpoint is at 80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Wisconsin/Illinois mcs pushed an outflow boundary westward through eastern Iowa tonight and the storm bubble-up has followed. I may get some good rain when I expected none. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Last nights storms brought area wide beneficial rains which soaked into the soil quite well as I witness a few minutes ago as I strolled around my back yard. We were getting dry up towards the norther burbs and near W IL. A general 1-2" of rain fell in those drought stricken areas. Should be back to normal and if more storms fire up Fri/Sat, even better. Some cool lightning strikes once again. The Cloud to Ground explosion is fantastic. This one struck in S WI... Downtown Chicago double strike... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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