July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

SEA is at +0.3 through 7/20.

 

Today will bump that up more and tomorrow will bring it down a little.

 

But next week is solidly above normal so anyone who had a negative anomaly at SEA is going to bust.

 

I had +1.4 and think that might be close. I as very close for June as well. At least I am doing great for the station I know best.

Shawnigan Lake is at +0.2 through the 19th and should be bumped up from the 20-21st. I can't imagine how high the anomalies would be with a third runway in place here, or first runway for that matter.

[TT-SEA]

More like you making s**t up.

 

The image I posted was of the d11-15 EPS mean, not the d10 mean. Both the projected tropical forcings and ensemble consensus favor a retrogression of the ridge offshore in early/mid August. Deal with it, dude.

Not talking about specific maps... just in general.

 

It's been nice either way. I can deal with it!

[Jesse]

Shawnigan Lake is at +0.2 through the 19th and should be bumped up from the 20-21st. I can't imagine how high the anomalies would be with a third runway in place here, or first runway for that matter.

Hopefully people eventually catch onto how secretly warm this July has been.

[Phil]

Not talking about specific maps... just in general.

 

It's been nice either way. I can deal with it!

Implying that I'm spreading false information isn't something I'll take as a joke. I'm always careful to provide accurate analysis.

 

Apparently you're not, I guess.

[Jesse]

-1.2 for the month to date at PDX.

 

Although given the look of the models the next 7-10 days it will probably end up pretty darn close to average by month's end. Still a wonderful break after the last two Julys.

[TT-SEA]

Implying that I'm spreading false information isn't something I'll take as a joke. I'm always careful to provide accurate analysis.

 

Apparently you're not, I guess.

 

Chilly air gets into west-central WA by d9. 

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro ensembles seem to want to keep most the this ridgy episode offshore.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting to go back and see posts about the ECMWF ensemble mean looking cold and troughy for next week when it was in the 11-15 day period.  

[Jesse]

Let's hear people thoughts on convection possibilities today.

[TT-SEA]

81 at SEA.   

[Deweydog]

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I wasn't sure if he was being a smart a** with that or what.  Kind of weird.  

[BLI snowman]

Let's hear people thoughts on convection possibilities today.

 

Thunder is very rare here so I'd say it's a no go. The encroaching San Joaquinization of western OR and WA will ultimately further sap our climate of any semblance of fun or any unique moments. 

 

Should be some marine layer drizzle around 6am tomorrow, though. Good for the rhodies.

[Deweydog]

Let's hear people thoughts on convection possibilities today.

 

Someone west of the crest north of Salem or so should score something.  Decent trigger with the shortwave and marine push.  

[jakeinthevalley]

Elevated possibilities PDX northward ahead of the marine push. Might stick around for awhile.

 

Little chance south of PDX

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully people eventually catch onto how secretly warm this July has been.

Seattle north....average to warmish. Seattle south....average to coolish. It's been a pretty unremarkable month to follow the weather IMO. Mostly boring so far.

[Deweydog]

Seattle north....average to warmish. Seattle south....average to coolish. It's been a pretty unremarkable month to follow the weather IMO. Mostly boring so far.

 

Wha huh?

 

You don't find feverishly checking hourly temperature updates to figure out if a station is gonna be +1.5 or -1.5 for the day titillating?  

[TT-SEA]

Wha huh?

 

You don't find feverishly checking hourly temperature updates to figure out if a station is gonna be +1.5 or -1.5 for the day titillating?  

 

 

SEA is +3 for the day so far.     

[Front Ranger]

Daaaaaayum!

 

Tim got a boner off OLM's +5 yesterday. Just giving him a much-needed cold shower.

[Jesse]

Seattle north....average to warmish. Seattle south....average to coolish. It's been a pretty unremarkable month to follow the weather IMO. Mostly boring so far.

I found the pattern centered around the 10th fairly interesting. Throw in some possible convection today and a potential hot spell toward months end and it's not too bad for July.

 

It could be argued that most Julys are boring.

[Phil]

12z EPS retrogrades ridge by d12, puts PNW back in troughing. Moving up in timing.

[TT-SEA]

Tim got a boner off OLM's +5 yesterday. Just giving him a much-needed cold shower.

 

 

I still have not come down yet.    Just thrilling!  

[BLI snowman]

Tim got a boner off OLM's +5 yesterday. Just giving him a much-needed cold shower.

 

The July pic in the 2016 SEA runway calendar was pretty hot in more ways than one. 

[TT-SEA]

12z EPS retrogrades ridge by d12, puts PNW back in troughing. Moving up in timing.

 

 

Warm first half of August?   

[chinook]

Everybody listen to chinook he knows what's going to happen next week, at least 5 straight days over 90 degrees and at least 1 day over 100 wont happen. I'm just going off maps and not making stuff up and you haven't posted since January so for you to just post that is offensive. If you think I'm so wrong then tell us all why instead of being a smart a**!

 

not really being a smartass...just laying it out with a bit a humor.   

 

doesn't matter how many times or the last time i posted, regardless...i don't think it will be scorching as outlined by the maps posted.  probably with the exception of the early June event...many of the heatwaves dissipated or did not reached potential as shown 5+ days out. 

 

perhaps above average temps yes...some low 90's quite possible. 

 

gut feeling.  i did have chicken asada for lunch. 

[Phil]

Warm first half of August?

I might bust slow again. Ridging also occurring earlier than I thought. We'll see.

[Jesse]

The July pic in the 2016 SEA runway calendar was pretty hot in more ways than one.

Is it Dewey doing butt crunches in front of a Boeing 747, on the third runway?

[Phil]

Yikes, I meant east-central WA. Used to "west" as an inland reference, living on the east coast.

[TT-SEA]

Yikes, I meant east-central WA. Used to "west" as an inland reference, living on the east coast.

 

 

Saying 'chilly' is the problem.

 

Saying 'chilly' air late next week into east-central WA is even more humorous.  

 

You are absolutely stuck on proving everything is cold or soon will be cold.  

[BLI snowman]

I found the pattern centered around the 10th fairly interesting. Throw in some possible convection today and a potential hot spell toward months end and it's not too bad for July.

 

It could be argued that most Julys are boring.

 

Extreme heat is one of literally only three ways that July weather can be interesting to track. Otherwise, our pitifully trifling rain and convection opportunities are it. 

[Phil]

Saying 'chilly' is the problem.

 

Saying 'chilly' air late next week into east-central WA is even more comical.

 

You are absolutely stuck on proving everything is cold or soon will be cold.

Chilly relative to normal, doofus.

[Deweydog]

Yikes, I meant east-central WA. Used to "west" as an inland reference, living on the east coast.

 

Where exactly is east central Washington?  

[BLI snowman]

Is it Dewey doing butt crunches in front of a Boeing 747, on the third runway?

 

Yes. With Tim as the pilot. 

[TT-SEA]

Chilly relative to normal, doofus. Quit being so obtuse, it's transparent as f**k.

 

Chilly air... so getting below 100 in Moses Lake?   

[Jesse]

Yes. With Tim as the pilot.

Wearing only a pilot's cap and a speedo.

[Deweydog]

Dew point's down to 55 at PDX.  

[GobBluth]

The July pic in the 2016 SEA runway calendar was pretty hot in more ways than one. 

I had to take a cold shower after seeing the foldout.

[Deweydog]

I had to take a cold shower after seeing the foldout.

 

Butt crunches really pay off.  

[TT-SEA]

Dew point's down to 55 at PDX.  

 

Was a toasty 81 with a dewpoint of 59 last hour at SEA.

 

Much more pleasant on the latest update - 82/57  

[Phil]

Where exactly is east central Washington?

 

Should have said "east of the cascades" and left it at that. Either way, just semantics.

[Phil]

Chilly air... so getting below 100 in Moses Lake?

 

Cooler than whatever the daily average is, doofus. "Chilly" is a subjective term, averages are typically the reference.