July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Skies have just about cleared in the Seattle area...

 

[TT-SEA]

Going to be interesting to see how Tuesday pans out.  This area spends the entire day either under the heart of the ULL or in cyclonic northerly flow.  The latter is often notoriously cloudy and cool for the Seattle area.  It will depend if enough SW wind manages to materialize to break up the cloud layer or not.

 

 

12Z ECMWF does show broken clouds in the afternoon on Tuesday with highs getting into the low 70s in Seattle.

 

Still guaranteed to be a below normal day with the cool air mass and some showers.

 

Wednesday is warm again and Thursday might be back into the 80s.

[snow_wizard]

66 at 1pm at SEA.  Even I'm surprised by that.

[snow_wizard]

12Z ECMWF does show broken clouds in the afternoon on Tuesday with highs getting into the low 70s in Seattle.

 

Still guaranteed to be a below normal day with the cool air mass and some showers.

 

Wednesday is warm again and Thursday might be back into the 80s.

 

I dunno...both the GFS and ECMWF show that next closed low dropping in not too long after the one on Tuesday.  Very cool early August by recent standards it would appear.

[TT-SEA]

I dunno...both the GFS and ECMWF show that next closed low dropping in not too long after the one on Tuesday.  Very cool early August by recent standards it would appear.

 

 

I am looking at the detailed ECMWF map from the 12Z run.

 

Wednesday is close to 80 and Thursday is over 80 for us.    Upper 80s at PDX.

 

And that low passes rather quickly and then back to warm.

 

Hopefully both of those ULLs bring some rain to the Puget Sound region.

[TT-SEA]

66 at 1pm at SEA.  Even I'm surprised by that.

 

 

70 at 2 p.m.

 

Should be an evening high today.

[Front Ranger]

70 at 2 p.m.

 

Should be an evening high today.

Big drop from yesterday. That call was correct.

[TT-SEA]

Big drop from yesterday. That call was correct.

Thats been obvious for several days now as we have discussed.

[MossMan]

66 at 1pm at SEA. Even I'm surprised by that.

Much warmer up north here luckily! Currently 75 and sunny. Had a few marine clouds roll through an hour ago but quickly dissipated.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty good SW wind at SEA still... might be hard to get above 75.

[ShawniganLake]

Much warmer up north here luckily! Currently 75 and sunny. Had a few marine clouds roll through an hour ago but quickly dissipated.

Yea, sunny and 76F up here.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Yea, sunny and 76F up here.

 

Kinda surprised how warm it ended up this afternoon. Upper 70's out here, pushing 80 in some spots.

[ShawniganLake]

Kinda surprised how warm it ended up this afternoon. Upper 70's out here, pushing 80 in some spots.

Up to 80F here now too. Pretty much a perfect Saturday.

[MossMan]

Up to 80F here now too. Pretty much a perfect Saturday.

Indeed! 77 here now!

[Jesse]

Up to 80F here now too. Pretty much a perfect Saturday.

Wow, pretty amazing how you guys keep overachieving up there.

 

What kind of pattern does it generally take to give you cool anomalies in the summer?

[ShawniganLake]

Wow, pretty amazing how you guys keep overachieving up there.

 

What kind of pattern does it generally take to give you cool anomalies in the summer?

Solid cloud cover on a day such as today would have done it.

 

However, we don't often get the solid marine layer days like areas further south, so it is usually related more to clouds from low pressure or passing fronts.

[TT-SEA]

In Issaquah on patio at restaurant... 78 or 79 here but only 74 at SEA. SEA always runs colder than Issaquah.

[Tyler Mode]

Sad to hear!  Great guy with an amazing sense of humor that he used to express his passion for the weather.

 

https://weather.com/news/news/dave-schwartz-weather-channel-passes-away

[TT-SEA]

70 at 2 p.m.

 

Should be an evening high today.

6 p.m. high at SEA.

[Tyler Mode]

Running 20 degrees cooler than two nights ago! That's a nice little change.  79 for a high here after 93 yesterday.

[Phil]

Running 20 degrees cooler than two nights ago! That's a nice little change. 79 for a high here after 93 yesterday.

#GreatCrashOf2016

[snow_wizard]

SEA ended up 14 degrees cooler than yesterday.  A pretty good drop and we are now in the midst of a very strong push that extends across the entire state.  It feels heavenly out there tonight!

[snow_wizard]

#GreatCrashOf2016

 

Yup.

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow looks like another gem... clearing and mid to upper 70s. 

 

Perfection.

[Phil]

Looks like SEA managed a -1 today, despite all the flack I got for predicting 7/30 and 7/31 would finish cooler than average.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA managed a -1 today, despite all the flack I got for predicting 7/30 and 7/31 would finish cooler than average.

 

Not much flack.

 

I said it was possible and was definitely the theme this year.

 

Still a gorgeous day.    Got up to 77 here.     

[TT-SEA]

Monday looks like a bonus warm day now.   Probably an over-performing day with southerly flow and good mixing of a warm air mass ahead of the trough on Tuesday morning.

 

Quick rebound on Wednesday too. 

[Phil]

Not much flack.

 

I said it was possible and was definitely the theme this year.

 

Still a gorgeous day. Got up to 77 here.

Might wanna read this exchange. You gave me hell for predicting this. You were arguing against it.

 

Starting to look like both 7/30 and 7/31 could finish below average west of the cascades. That "crash" keeps moving closer in time.

Well Phil... the 12Z ECMWF was farther north with the trough next weekend. It also shows SEA close to 90 on 7/30... so does the WRF. That is 13 degrees warmer than normal on the high at SEA.

 

Saturday morning... this not a below normal day in any way.

 

Sunday (7/31) might be close to normal. Although the pattern shown now would end up pretty sunny along the I-5 corridor that day.

850mb temps next Saturday afternoon per the 18Z GFS. Its a warm day.

The 12z ECMWF is sort of an outlier, though, both relative to its own ensemble mean and the GEFS/GGEM ensembles. I suspect it'll trend faster w/ its 00z run tonight. The trend across guidance is highly suggestive, IMO, that the "crash" will wind up occuring on 7/30.

Trending the other way right now. It was trending faster and now slower. The 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, and the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean all have 850mb temps in close to 20C next Saturday.

 

Warm day on every model.

Also... SEA will probably end up better than +1.5 for July.

[Front Ranger]

Already down to 59 with a DP of 48 at OLM. Depending on how long clouds hold off, could see some places set midnight lows tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Might wanna read this exchange. You gave me hell for predicting this. You were arguing against it.

 

 

 

I also said it was possible and the theme this year.   And that I was going to wait to see more runs because it probably was coming quicker.

 

You left that part out.    

 

ECMWF showed a warm day at the time... just a question of timing.  Obviously the monthly departures swing a little on that timing.   

 

Sunday is exactly the same.  Sunny afternoon and near normal.   Just as shown back then.

[TT-SEA]

OK.   We will see.

 

Certainly been sort of a theme this year to bring troughiness in faster.   

[Phil]

Already down to 59 with a DP of 48 at OLM. Depending on how long clouds hold off, could see some places set midnight lows tonight.

Down to 57 now. Only three degrees to go!

[Phil]

With today's -1 reading, PDX is now assured to finish July with a negative departure, likely around -0.2. Still pending is OLM.

 

Looks like SEA will finish around +1.0.

[TT-SEA]

With today's -1 reading, PDX is now assured to finish July with a negative departure, likely around -0.2. Still pending is OLM.

 

Looks like SEA will finish around +1.0.

 

Don't think your math is right.

 

Normal for July is 65.7

 

Assuming the same numbers tomorrow (75/57) then SEA ends up at 66.87

 

So that is +1.2 for the month.  

 

I predicted +1.4 in the contest.

 

It certainly was an above normal month of July in the Puget Sound area.    Bellingham is going to end up around +2.1  

[TT-SEA]

With today's -1 reading, PDX is now assured to finish July with a negative departure, likely around -0.2. Still pending is OLM.

 

Looks like SEA will finish around +1.0.

 

 

Interestingly... McMinnville and Hillsboro to the west and south of Portland will end up above +1.0 for the month.   Even Troutdale just to the east of PDX will be around +1.2.

 

Salem is going to end up around +1.2 like SEA.

 

Eugene is going to be +0.5

 

Astoria will end up around +2.6

 

And OLM will end up around +0.3

 

 

Looks like most of the stations in western WA and OR will be warmer than normal for July.    

[Phil]

In the final quality control analysis, I believe NCDC adds up the highs and lows, then calculates the monthly departure from the average high/low for the month.

 

Remember, some of the departures in the preliminary data were calculated incorrectly. Also, I could see SEA managing a -2 or -3 tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Remember, some of the departures in the preliminary data were calculated incorrectly. In the final quality control analysis, I believe NCDC adds up the highs and lows, then calculates the monthly departure from the average high/low for the month.

 

Also, I could see SEA managing a -2 or -3 tomorrow.

 

 

I added up all the actual highs and lows... not the daily departures.   Its already calculated in the CF6 data.

 

Even a -2 or -3 would get SEA to +1.1 at the lowest.  

[TT-SEA]

If we just take into account the maximum high temperatures, PDX will finish even cooler with a -2 to -3 departure. 

 

 

 

 

Even max temps are above normal in the Puget Sound region for July.  

[Phil]

Eugene is going to be +0.5

Probably more like +0.3, maybe less after the data goes through quality control (there were five incorrectly calculated departures).

 

And OLM will end up around +0.3

I could see OLM finish close to average (or below) after quality control.

[Phil]

I added up all the actual highs and lows... not the daily departures. Its already calculated in the CF6 data.

 

Even a -2 or -3 would get SEA to +1.1 at the lowest.

Might want to try again.