The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

Last week?

 

Didn't make it too far into those 12 hours...

Yep. Now envision having nonsense like that thrown directly at you 24/7 for months on end.

 

I made my summer forecast with good intentions. If I'd known Tim would react like this, I would have kept my thoughts to myself. In fact that's probably what I'm going to do this winter and next summer, at least. I never want this to happen again.

[TT-SEA]

What does a story I came up with as a teenager have anything to do with this? I've been 100% transparent since then.

 

You're the spinmaster now. See above. You go insane here for months, constantly barraging me & the forum with ridiculous claims, ad hominem attacks, and flat out bulls**t, then have the nerve to call me an "angry person" when I become fed up?

 

I'm legitimately worried about you.

 

 

Dude... you are an angry person.  Don't think you are excused for years of name-calling and vicious attacks when questioned about where you live when its exactly the same now.    You are the same person.   

[Phil]

Dude... you are an angry person. Don't think you are excused for years of name-calling and vicious attacks when questioned about where you live when its exactly the same now. You are the same person.

You clearly don't know anything about me. Believe what you want, but you're absolutely 100% wrong on this one.

[TT-SEA]

Can I say it was warm last week?

 

Sunday - Thursday:

 

+3

0

+3

+4

+5

 

 

It was warm here overall with a cool end to the week.   This week is even warmer of course.

[TT-SEA]

You clearly don't know anything about me. Believe what you want, but you're absolutely 100% wrong on this one.

 

You don't know how angry you are... but it comes out clearly in your posts and your desire to attack me for reporting what is actually happening here.   Which happens to be thousands of miles from you.  As long as it matches up with it being cold all summer then you are happy.    It has not been a cold July here... despite what is happening on a regional level.  

[TT-SEA]

Yep. Now envision having nonsense like that thrown directly at you 24/7 for months on end.

 

I made my summer forecast with good intentions. If I'd known Tim would react like this, I would have kept my thoughts to myself. In fact that's probably what I'm going to do this winter and next summer, at least. I never want this to happen again.

 

Martyr.    

 

Silly stuff.    

 

You don't have to consider my short-range stuff any threat to your long-range ideas.    But you clearly do for some reason.   

[Phil]

Have fun in here. Heading out for the evening.

[TT-SEA]

It really was warm last week.  

 

[Bryant]

:popcorn:

[Andie]

Pass the popcorn please, BigMack.

 

Any hopes I had of learning something here dried up faster than spit on a Texas sidewalk in August.

[TT-SEA]

So I hear the models are trending a bit warmer the last few runs. Can anyone confirm this a bunch of times?

 

 

It appears so.  

 

Phil is not currently telling us how frigidly cold August is going to be... that is a sure sign.  

[Phil]

A little deeper though.     It shows SEA and PDX barely getting to 75 that day which is below normal.  Worth mentioning  since it reverses the trend to warmer.

 

There was no trend to warmer. The ECMWF went faster/cooler last night too, as did the CMC/NAEFS.

[TT-SEA]

Just to set the record straight, the 12z GFS is cooler than average both Saturday and Sunday, though it's warmer than the 12z ECMWF.

 

image.pngimage.png

 

 

Actually... the first map shows close to normal temperatures for SEA and PDX and the entire I-5 corridor where most of us live.   You get fooled with your big picture maps and use a broad brush like you are looking at the flat Midwest.   

 

The period covered by the second map is warmer on the ECMWF actually... which shows it warming up Sunday and even more on Monday.  

[Phil]

Actually... the first map shows close to normal temperatures for SEA and PDX and the entire I-5 corridor where most of us live.   You get fooled with your big picture maps and use a broad brush like you are looking at the flat Midwest.   

 

The period covered by the second map is warmer on the ECMWF actually... which shows it warming up Sunday and even more on Monday.

 

Do I have to post the soundings/meteograms again? The 12z ECMWF is cooler than the GFS for both Saturday and Sunday.

[Phil]

Tim and Phil thread?

I didn't even quote Tim. He chose to respond.

[Jesse]

I didn't even quote Tim. He chose to respond.

"Setting the record straight" on something he said.

[TT-SEA]

Do I have to post the soundings/meteograms again? The 12z ECMWF is cooler than the GFS for both Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

Don't care about any of it... the models have consistently run too cool with the guidance for Seattle.   Both of have been really bad actually.     

 

Much better to look at the detailed maps and look at cloud cover to determine what will happen.   The 12Z ECMWF clearly shows it turning warmer on Sunday and Monday.   

 

You can broad brush all you want but it does not work well where most of us actually live.   Its been above normal up here.   Remember below normal until the 26th?   

 

[Phil]

Here's the 12z ECMWF @ 11AM Saturday vs the 00z ECMWF at the same time. The 12z ECMWF is the same @ KSEA, slightly cooler @ KPDX. No reason to get overly specific at this range.

 

12z run:

 

 

00z run:

 

[TT-SEA]

Yep, new 12z Canadian concurs, keeps PNW below average through d10, which takes us into July 26th. Running out of time to get those positive monthly departures.

 

 

Concurred with the ECMWF and GFS guidance at the time.   You broad-brushed the entire PNW.    

 

Worked on a regional level... failed where most of the people live.      It is what it is.   You can ignore that and talk regionally... that is fine.  

[Phil]

Concurred with the ECMWF and GFS guidance at the time. You broad-brushed the entire PNW.

 

Worked on a regional level... failed most of the people live.

 

Do you really want to start this up again? You're going to lose, and waste your day fighting with me in the process.

 

Just let it go. We'll see who was closer in the forecast contest.

[TT-SEA]

Do you really want to start this up again? You're going to lose, and waste your day fighting with me in the process.

 

 

Maps speak for themselves.   No way to lose.   

 

Its been above normal across all of western WA and OR for the last week... despite models showing it would be below normal until the 26th.    

 

You cannot argue that fact and I will not be sucked into it.    

[TT-SEA]

Here's the 12z ECMWF @ 11AM Saturday vs the 00z ECMWF at the same time. The 12z ECMWF is the same @ KSEA, slightly cooler @ KPDX. No reason to get overly specific at this range.

 

12z run:

 

image.png

 

00z run:

 

image.png

 

 

Read above Phillip.

 

I said the ECMWF was deeper with the trough and cooler for Saturday compared to the 00Z run.   

 

Are you arguing just to argue?   I literally said this exact thing for Saturday.    

[FroYoBro]

Maps speak for themselves.   No way to lose.   

 

Its been above normal across all of western WA and OR for the last week... despite models showing it would be below normal until the 26th.    

 

You cannot argue that fact and I will not be sucked into it.    

I think you're winning! 

[Deweydog]

Maps speak for themselves. No way to lose.

 

Its been above normal across all of western WA and OR for the last week... despite models showing it would be below normal until the 26th.

 

You cannot argue that fact and I will not be sucked into it.

Pretty sure you guys have already sucked each other off several times over.

[Phil]

Maps speak for themselves. No way to lose.

 

Its been above normal across all of western WA and OR for the last week... despite models showing it would be below normal until the 26th.

 

You cannot argue that fact and I will not be sucked into it.

Except models (in general) didn't have the region below normal through the 26th, minus a few runs 10 days out. They had the region cooler than average from the 17th to the 23rd, though, which verified.

 

Get your facts straight.

[Phil]

Read above Phillip.

 

I said the ECMWF was deeper with the trough and cooler for Saturday compared to the 00Z run.

 

Are you arguing just to argue? I literally said this exact thing for Saturday.

I DIDN'T QUOTE YOU IN THAT POST. Was just providing detail on the 12z ECMWF. You're incredibly paranoid and/or unstable. Get a life, dude.

 

Oh, and you spelled my name wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Do you really want to start this up again? You're going to lose, and waste your day fighting with me in the process.

 

Just let it go. We'll see who was closer in the forecast contest.

 

 

The monthly contest is just a long-tern SWAG at this point.     Timing has been very different and we are dealing with short-term stuff now.    

 

The map for the second half of July is going to look pretty warm across western WA and OR.       Its been a warm second half of the month after a chilly first half.  

[TT-SEA]

I DIDNT QUOTE YOU IN THAT POST. Was just providing detail on the 12z ECMWF.

 

You're incredibly paranoid and/or unstable.

 

Trying to show the ECMWF was cooler... we already established that.   

[Phil]

The monthly contest is just a long-tern SWAG at this point. Timing has been very different and we are dealing with short-term stuff now.

 

The map for the second half of July is going to look pretty warm across western WA and OR. Its been a warm second half of the month after a chilly first half.

Considering July 10-20 averaged cooler than July 1-10, I'd argue the deepest troughing was centered mid-Month.

 

So, I was right after all. Oh, and the forecast contest isn't a SWAG, seasonal forecasting is much more than that.

[Phil]

Trying to show the ECMWF was cooler... we already established that.

I was providing a visual w/ more detail. Wasn't trying to prove anything, hence why I didn't quote you.

 

You're just paranoid.

[Phil]

Let's end this now, dude.

[TT-SEA]

Considering July 10-20 averaged cooler than July 1-10, I'd argue the deepest troughing was centered mid-Month.

 

So, I was right after all. Oh, and the forecast contest isn't a SWAG, seasonal forecasting is much more than that.

 

Seattle was much colder in the July 1-10 period.

 

Its been well above normal on average from July 11-26 and will be even more so in the Jul 11-31 period.   The month started cold and basically transitioned to warm after the 10th.

 

I live in the Seattle area.   I used local history as a guide for making my guess about how July will evolve.   I did not use Boise or Spokane.    

[Phil]

It appears so.

 

Phil is not currently telling us how frigidly cold August is going to be... that is a sure sign.

I didn't comment on the cooler ECMWF/CMC trends, either.

 

I have a life.

[Phil]

Seattle was much colder in the July 1-10 period.

 

Its been well above normal on average from July 11-26 and will be even more so in the Jul 11-31 period. The month started cold and basically transitioned to warm after the 10th.

 

I live in the Seattle area. I used local history as a guide for making my guess about how July will evolve. I did not use Boise or Spokane.

July 1-10th vs July 10-20th. Cooler just about everywhere, deeper troughing.

 

[Jesse]

Let's end this now, dude.

Fisticuffs?

[TT-SEA]

Heading into training session now.

 

I texted my wife and told her to pack up the summer stuff... its going to be really cold starting this weekend and beyond.   Nina is full control and that is always frigid here.  

 

I will send her the blue and purple maps later... she will see.  

[TT-SEA]

No. Even just for the Seattle area it was only a little above normal.

 

 

Around +2.5 for the second half of the month so far.    Much warmer than the first 10 days.   

[Phil]

500mb heights, July 1-10th vs July 10-20th. I'd say I was spot on.

 

[TT-SEA]

500mb heights, July 1-10th vs July 10-20th. I'd say I was spot on.

 

image.gifimage.gif

 

 

Of course... on regional level.   Never argued that.

 

My forecast was for the Seattle area based on local history.  

 

Coldest period of the month was July 1-10... above normal for the period since.   So I was right as well.   And I only really care about Seattle.

 

So you were right and I was right.  

[Phil]

Heck, here's July 1-10 vs July 15-20th. Even July 15th-20th was troughier than July 1-10.

 

Again, just about what I expected, SEA hotspot notwithstanding.