August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Wow was I the only cold spot with a low of 56 degrees?

It was a wind thing. Calm here and in the 50's.

[TT-SEA]

It was a wind thing. Calm here and in the 50's.

 

 

I just drove from home to Tukwila... lots of temp changes based on elevation.   It was very warm at our house but cool down in the valley in North Bend and again through Fall City.    Then very warm from Bellevue to here and you could see the NE wind moving the trees.

[Deweydog]

Wow was I the only cold spot with a low of 56 degrees?

55 here when I left the house.

 

Mid 70's for a high today.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It was a wind thing. Calm here and in the 50's.

 

Things were pretty mixed around here last night; Victoria airport ended up with a low around 20.3C (68.5F), a full 9F warmer than the forecast low. Similar story throughout Victoria proper, with the outflow winds it looks like there was an unusual blip last night around 2-3am where the temperature jumped from about 70F to 77F. Also seems like another daily record is easily within reach today, the previous record for today is pretty weak.

[GobBluth]

The range of temps across the Portland area is crazy. 82 in Troutdale and 58 in Beaverton

[Front Ranger]

BLI's record warm low appears in pretty serious jeopardy, barring a late-day nuclear fallout.

 

Their low so far is 70 and the all time record is 65 from 8/12/2014.

 

It's insane how many record warm nights they have had since 2014. This at an only modestly urban locale.

A bit suspicious.

 

Low of 54 at OLM, that ever reliable bastion of sanity.

[Abbotsford_wx]

A low of 67 here... already 82 at 9:35 am.

[Deweydog]

A bit suspicious.

 

Low of 54 at OLM, that ever reliable bastion of sanity.

Funny.

 

I suspect there will be lots of suspicious readings today.

[Guest Winterdog]

My low of 52 tied Arlington's low this morning.  75 now.

[TT-SEA]

A bit suspicious.

 

Low of 54 at OLM, that ever reliable bastion of sanity.

 

You mean OLM... the always wind-protected hole in the ground?

[Front Ranger]

You mean OLM... the always wind-protected hole in the ground?

 

Weird stuff just doesn't happen there. What they record almost always matches up with their climatology and what you'd expect from the air mass.

 

One of OLM's many virtues.

[TT-SEA]

Weird stuff just doesn't happen there. What they record almost always matches up with their climatology and what you'd expect from the air mass.

 

One of OLM's many virtues.

 

 

Boring.  

 

Wind is fun.    Exceptional radiational cooling and fog suck.   

 

East wind is the single best aspect of the climate at my location for many reasons.  

[Front Ranger]

Funny.

 

I suspect there will be lots of suspicious readings today.

 

Outliers must always be viewed with suspicion.

[Deweydog]

Weird stuff just doesn't happen there. What they record almost always matches up with their climatology and what you'd expect from the air mass.

 

One of OLM's many virtues.

Today's air mass definitely makes me think about and expect temperatures in the 50's.

[Front Ranger]

Boring.  

 

Wind is fun.    Exceptional radiational cooling and fog suck.   

 

East wind is the single best aspect of the climate at my location for many reasons.  

 

Right, east wind is part of your local climatology. Whether it's exciting or boring was not my point.

[Deweydog]

Outliers must always be viewed with suspicion.

Yeah, they were definitely the only location in the region that stayed mixed last night. Crazy. I hear NWS investigators are on route.

[Front Ranger]

Today's air mass definitely makes me think about and expect temperatures in the 50's.

 

For lows at your house and OLM, sure. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, they were definitely the only location in the region that stayed mixed last night. Crazy. I hear NWS investigators are on route.

 

First, it was half tongue in cheek. Second, I was referring to the trends at BLI, not just today.

[stuffradio]

It was windy here at my house last night. It was weird because I wasn't expecting it. Though, I didn't really look for a forecast to see if I would get wind any time recently.

[TT-SEA]

No real signs of change yet...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

Note the subsidence (orange) around 90E, replacing the convective forcing (blue) that'd been there through most of the summer. That's a warm signal in the PNW at any time of year..forcing won't return there until probably 9/1-9/5.

 

The late-July warmth arose from a brief EPAC CCKW forcing the anticyclone poleward. This is something different.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DA7B06B7-71A8-4549-97F5-BD22592338EB_zpsx1hm72tu.gif

[James Jones]

91 at 11 AM is pretty freaking incredible for PDX. The only August day in history that I can find where it was that warm that early is 8/9/81, and that was still one degree shy.

[Phil]

GEFS week2..still a very weak IO/EHEM signal. Definitely not Niño w/ the EPAC subsidence, signal looks more like a weak east-based Niña cell given the forcing displaced westward of 120E.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/54A86BE2-C305-4DFF-856C-DC1833959D76_zpsgqyqtqlb.png

[FroYoBro]

Wow. What a warm mid morning. The offshore wind is really going right now. May cap the high a little bit if it keeps going this strong. 

[Phil]

Haven't seen such a wimpy IO/EHEM in over 20 years.

 

Since 1998, that area has just been roaring 24/7. Could this be a longer term regime shift? Is it a coincidence that the unprecedented collapse of the QBO (permanently?) happens to coincide?

[GobBluth]

Wow. What a warm mid morning. The offshore wind is really going right now. May cap the high a little bit if it keeps going this strong. 

the winds will cap the highs downtown and east, but the downsloping off the west hills is going to inflate the west side highs.

[Phil]

I'm hoping your right Phil. As we head into September, I want to see a change to Autumn weather. The new 12z GEFS and GEPS just want to keep the west coast ridge there though.

If it doesn't, it'd probably represent a La Niña failure (though with the trades still cranking given the EPAC is in Niña mode, and the thermocline rising again as a result, the Niña appears to be doing just fine).

[Phil]

Have to wonder if the QBO collapse (note the easterlies at/below 50mb & high/cool equatorial tropopause underneath the westerlies at/above 40mb) is helping sustain equatorward convection over the Pacific, fighting Niña (forcing/inertia) out of the tropics.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like Newport, OR is being spared of any major heat so far. Amazing that 77 F is considered a Heat Advisory for them. They were up to 68 F before falling back down to 63 F, but there's still time for the offshore flow to dominate. 60s and 90s could be within walking distance in some areas today.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... does Weather Bell have all of the surface maps for the ECMWF?

 

Specifically cloud cover, temperatures, and precipitation?   And can you zoom in to a local level?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a warm run.

[Phil]

Phil... does Weather Bell have all of the surface maps for the ECMWF?

 

Specifically cloud cover, temperatures, and precipitation? And can you zoom in to a local level?

Yes, all that and much more. Trust me, come winter you'll never use another site again. Here's a screenshot of what they offer on the regional surface level through day10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/99B4218C-72E7-4E33-850D-501310B5FC27_zpso3dgcjjk.png

 

This is just the regional surface level. They offer a bunch of upper level data, all the way to 1mb. They even break down the EPS so you can see what each of the individual 51 members depicts through day15.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, all that and much more. Trust me, come winter you'll never use another site again. Here's a screenshot of what they offer on the regional surface level through day10:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/99B4218C-72E7-4E33-850D-501310B5FC27_zpso3dgcjjk.png

 

This is just the regional surface level. They offer a bunch of upper level data, all the way to 1mb. They even break down the EPS so you can see what each of the individual 51 members depicts through day15.

 

Just for an example for my decision making process... can you show me cloud cover over WA state at 8 a.m. on Sunday morning from the 12Z run?   

 

I want to see what the level detail looks like.   

[Phil]

Best part is watching Bastardi's hilarious videos..dude might be a nut and a wishcaster but he makes for great entertainment.

[Phil]

Just for an example for my decision making process... can you show me cloud cover over WA state at 8 a.m. on Sunday morning from the 12Z run?

 

I want to see what the level detail looks like.

Here's Sunday @ 12z. Panels are 00z/06z/12z/18z until the hourly package comes out sometime in November I think.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CBD4F50B-6312-4169-A169-75ED69769317_zpsinthgnoe.png

[TT-SEA]

Here's Sunday @ 12z. Panels are 00z/06z/12z/18z until the hourly package comes out sometime in November I think.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CBD4F50B-6312-4169-A169-75ED69769317_zpsinthgnoe.png

 

 

Awesome... perfectly picks up the low cloud cover that will be poking inland that morning.   Very nice.  

[TT-SEA]

Can you also show the 8/21 cloud cover at 18Z (11 am PDT)?   I want to see how it handles burn off. 

[Phil]

Awesome... perfectly picks up the low cloud cover that will be poking inland that morning. Very nice.

They also have a localized/higher resolution ECMWF extracted nest for the PNW. Have never used it before, though.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6877DC6F-18BE-45C0-83A9-71A2B826DC04_zpswamj35an.png

[TT-SEA]

And how much $ is Weather Bell to have access to all of that information?

[Phil]

And how much $ is Weather Bell to have access to all of that information?

Just the typical premium package. It's about $25/month.