August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Explain Quillayute and Bellingham.

Again, not a one month deal. SEA has consistently run +1 to +2 warmer than OLM during recent warm seasons, and it can't be explained away by microclimates.

 

You can feel free to point out SEA's numbers and I'll feel free to point out a non-UHI affected station.

[snow_wizard]

Future looks warm.

 

Hour 372!

[snow_wizard]

Again, not a one month deal. SEA has consistently run +1 to +2 warmer than OLM during recent warm seasons, and it can't be explained away by microclimates.

 

You can feel free to point out SEA's numbers and I'll feel free to point out a non-UHI affected station.

 

I think one of the best stations for the Central Puget Sound is Landsburg.  A rural station with a long period of record.

 

Even Cliff Mass is with you on this.  It is kind of surprising the effect hasn't been as pronounced this year.

[Front Ranger]

Olympia is ******* awesome.

The city kinda sucks. The airport is awesome.

[Deweydog]

The city kinda sucks. The airport is awesome.

The parking lot is in severe need of repaving.

 

That will be a dark day.

[Phil]

Again, not a one month deal. SEA has consistently run +1 to +2 warmer than OLM during recent warm seasons, and it can't be explained away by microclimates.

 

You can feel free to point out SEA's numbers and I'll feel free to point out a non-UHI affected station.

I think BLI's sensor might need replacing. Since 2014, they've run much warmer than soundings would otherwise indicate. Would say the same about Astoria, even more-so if anything.

 

DCA's sensor was replaced last summer, and the impact was immediate, as they ran more than 2 degrees cooler thereafter.

[Front Ranger]

My thought is that we cycle through a 10-day cool, troughy period like we did in early July and then the rest of the September is dry and a little warmer than normal.

 

Just a feeling that I am getting based on our analog years.    I also think October might end up fairly warm.    

 

I welcome criticism if I am wrong.   

 

I'm curious which analog years are pointing towards a warm October.

[snow_wizard]

I think at SEA they need to bite the bullet and put the sensor in a designated area that is away from the runways.  Maybe the Federal Government could buy 10 or 20 acres that is basically worthless land due to the airplane noise south of the airport to assure the surrounding won't change.

[Phil]

I'm curious which analog years are pointing towards a warm October.

I'm also worried about a warmer October, for different reasons however. The analogs I've been running with point to a cooler October, but none of them capture the lack of a wave1 w/ the typical IO-centered forcing as the monsoonal trough collapses.

 

This year is weird.

[ShawniganLake]

I think one of the best stations for the Central Puget Sound is Landsburg.  A rural station with a long period of record.

 

Even Cliff Mass is with you on this.  It is kind of surprising the effect hasn't been as pronounced this year.

Similar to what Shawnigan Lake is for Southern Vancouver Island.  Rural Station with records since 1913.

[Front Ranger]

I think one of the best stations for the Central Puget Sound is Landsburg.  A rural station with a long period of record.

 

Even Cliff Mass is with you on this.  It is kind of surprising the effect hasn't been as pronounced this year.

 

Yeah, I haven't compared 2016, but I know in other recent years, Landsburg also ran cooler compared to their long term averages than SEA. Pretty similar to OLM.

[snow_wizard]

I'm curious which analog years are pointing towards a warm October.

 

I think October is pretty much a toss up, but I would lean to below normal.  I'm much more confident there will at least be a sharp cool period during the month.

[Front Ranger]

Similar to what Shawnigan Lake is for Southern Vancouver Island.  Rural Station with records since 1913.

 

How many record warm months has Shawnigan Lake seen since 2013?

[Phil]

September is definitely an easier call relative to October, in my opinion.

 

September will be a cool/troughy month overall (typical -PNA) until the final week of the month when that off-equator +AAM belt finally propagates poleward as WPAC subsidence regresses.

 

October will hinge on the IO/EHEM convection through the monsoonal termination there. Will the forcing stay in the IO/MT domain (cool October)? Or will the IO remain weak and bias the forcing eastward into the WPAC (warm October)?

[Front Ranger]

September is definitely an easier call relative to October, in my opinion.

 

September will be a cool/troughy month overall (typical -PNA) until the final week of the month when that off-equator +AAM belt finally propagates poleward as WPAC subsidence regresses.

 

October will hinge on the IO/EHEM convection through the monsoonal termination there. Will the forcing stay in the IO/MT domain (cool October)? Or will the IO remain weak and bias the forcing eastward into the WPAC (warm October)?

 

Especially since it's almost here? 

[MossMan]

I think at SEA they need to bite the bullet and put the sensor in a designated area that is away from the runways. Maybe the Federal Government could buy 10 or 20 acres that is basically worthless land due to the airplane noise south of the airport to assure the surrounding won't change.

I agree. However I doubt the Feds really care about sensor placement and or observed temps unfortunately.

[ShawniganLake]

How many record warm months has Shawnigan Lake seen since 2013?

Back to back record warm years, but I am really not sure on the actual months.  It would be a lot of work to figure it out.

[MossMan]

Scott Sistek agrees with a warm fall season. My uneducated guess...warm to very warm second part of September...average October...warm and wet November...second half of December thru February cool to cold. Snow chances great in low elevations.

[TT-SEA]

Again, not a one month deal. SEA has consistently run +1 to +2 warmer than OLM during recent warm seasons, and it can't be explained away by microclimates.

 

You can feel free to point out SEA's numbers and I'll feel free to point out a non-UHI affected station.

UIL is the ultimate non UHI station.

[Phil]

Especially since it's almost here?

Haha, in spite of that stubborn little factoid.

[Front Ranger]

UIL is the ultimate non UHI station.

 

Have they consistently had similar anomalies to SEA over the past decade?

[Front Ranger]

Back to back record warm years, but I am really not sure on the actual months.  It would be a lot of work to figure it out.

 

It's pretty easy to figure it out for SEA/PDX. Would be interesting if Shawnigan Lake has matched the number of record warm months at those stations. I know most of the rural stations in the Puget Sound region haven't had as many as SEA.

[Jesse]

So if la Niñas, el Niños and neutral years all give us warmer than average falls, what on earth would give us a cooler than average fall? How have we ever had any in the history of our region?

 

I think predicting a warmer than average fall is pretty common every year since many people have trouble letting go of summer.

[MossMan]

So if la Niñas, el Niños and neutral years all give us warmer than average falls, what on earth would give us a cooler than average fall? How have we ever had any in the history of our region?

 

I think predicting a warmer than average fall is pretty common every year since many people have trouble letting go of summer.

A multi year Nina might do it?

[Jesse]

A multi year Nina might do it?

There are examples of every type of ENSO state giving us cool falls over the last few decades.

 

Although weak la Niñas seem to be the most consistent. Good thing one of those isn't happening right now.

[TT-SEA]

There are examples of every type of ENSO state giving us cool falls over the last few decades.

 

Although weak la Niñas seem to be the most consistent. Good thing one of those isn't happening right now.

 

 

Probably should have seen a cool August as well huh?

 

Lets check back at the end of October. 

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks like a pretty wet pattern towards the end especially. Consolidated jet aimed squarely at the PNW.

[Deweydog]

So if la Niñas, el Niños and neutral years all give us warmer than average falls, what on earth would give us a cooler than average fall? How have we ever had any in the history of our region?

 

I think predicting a warmer than average fall is pretty common every year since many people have trouble letting go of summer.

U mad bro?

[Timmy Supercell]

After 2 more highs in the 80's, a bunch of 70's on the way! 

 

On a side note...

 

Shortwave activity on Tuesday could be my next shot at storms. NWS thinks the only storms will be in the extreme northern and NE section of the forecast area. Sometimes they get that wrong, hopefully coverage is a bit wider of an area than that. They even mention that models conflict on details and timing of the shortwave, so anything could go.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks like a pretty wet pattern towards the end especially. Consolidated jet aimed squarely at the PNW.

That would be so nice for few days.

[Deweydog]

Shouldn't we do a fall forecast thread?

[Phil]

Woah, the 12z ECMWF has a sprawling NPAC anticyclone, in coherent constructive interference w/ the tropical forcings and the polar circulation. Should that verify, it'd stick around for much (if not all of) September.

[Jesse]

U mad bro?

Nah, just pointing out a theme I've noticed here the last several years.

[snow_wizard]

Impressively cool run on the ECMWF.  At day 10 it appears poised to go even cooler.

[snow_wizard]

So if la Niñas, el Niños and neutral years all give us warmer than average falls, what on earth would give us a cooler than average fall? How have we ever had any in the history of our region?

 

I think predicting a warmer than average fall is pretty common every year since many people have trouble letting go of summer.

 

I am puzzled by the number of people going for a warm autumn given the persistent anomalous GOA ridge this summer.  If that feature sticks around autumn will be cool.

[wx_statman]

I think BLI's sensor might need replacing. Since 2014, they've run much warmer than soundings would otherwise indicate. Would say the same about Astoria, even more-so if anything.

 

DCA's sensor was replaced last summer, and the impact was immediate, as they ran more than 2 degrees cooler thereafter.

 

Cooler than what? I'm just curious here. 

[wx_statman]

I think at SEA they need to bite the bullet and put the sensor in a designated area that is away from the runways.  Maybe the Federal Government could buy 10 or 20 acres that is basically worthless land due to the airplane noise south of the airport to assure the surrounding won't change.

 

Will never happen. The only reason ASOS sensors are at airports is to provide pilots with relevant weather info for takeoffs and landings. So the sensor needs to be in a relevant location as far as airport ops are concerned. 

[wx_statman]

It's pretty easy to figure it out for SEA/PDX. Would be interesting if Shawnigan Lake has matched the number of record warm months at those stations. I know most of the rural stations in the Puget Sound region haven't had as many as SEA.

 

That's because SEA is affected by UHI.

 

Dropping gems today, Front Ranger?

[snow_wizard]

Will never happen. The only reason ASOS sensors are at airports is to provide pilots with relevant weather info for takeoffs and landings. So the sensor needs to be in a relevant location as far as airport ops are concerned. 

 

Meanwhile the artificially warm location (compared with the past) provides bogus data to skew the numbers up for "proof" of global warming.  I wonder how many other stations are in the same boat?  The whole thing is pretty frustrating for people who are into tracking daily, monthly, and yearly temperature data / records.

 

They need a station for climatology study as well as the needs of airports.  Further more they should make it an "old fashioned" station with a human observer to measure snow depth and everything else automated sensors are unable to observe.  The cost would be pretty miniscule in the big picture.

[TT-SEA]

I am puzzled by the number of people going for a warm autumn given the persistent anomalous GOA ridge this summer. If that feature sticks around autumn will be cool.

Probably won't stick around through October... and summer was not cool here.