September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I was right about the MOS being too low today.  Goes to show you can't always trust that stuff.

[MossMan]

[stuffradio]

The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last!

I don't think that was the first.

[TT-SEA]

I was right about the MOS being too low today.  Goes to show you can't always trust that stuff.

 

 

Right... like on Thursday night the GFS MOS showed 57 for SEA on Friday and it ended up at 63 that day.

[Front Ranger]

No 90 for PDX.

[BLI snowman]

No 90 for PDX.

89, so close enough.

[snow_wizard]

89, so close enough.

 

Amazing how SEA under performed with this.  Not even close to 80 today.

[snow_wizard]

The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last!

 

He's famous for his gloomy outlooks.

[Front Ranger]

89, so close enough.

 

Weather is not hand grenades or horse shoes.

 

Though sometimes it can be explosive and weenies get lucky.

[Jesse]

No 90 for PDX.

Sad day for Dewey.

[luvssnow_spokane]

He's famous for his gloomy outlooks.

Dear Lord!... (hint: it was sarcasm) but it feels good to be famous and the first to post "winter cancel"...  today IS a good day!    

[Weather101]

So Amazon lost my package and the guy started laughing on the phone lol

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how SEA under performed with this.  Not even close to 80 today.

 

82 here.

 

No model showed SEA getting to 80 with this little ridge.

[Phil]

82 here.

 

No model showed SEA getting to 80 with this little ridge.

Except the Tim model.

[TT-SEA]

Except the Tim model.

 

 

I never forecasted 80 at SEA.

[Deweydog]

Sad day for Dewey.

Almost.

[TT-SEA]

Almost.

 

You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt.  

 

If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last!

LOL! sooo true... and It won't be the last of some very wild speculation/wishcasts of "epicness" too (10 days out). Get your popcorn folks it is gonna be a fun ride.   --- I can't wait for Gorton the Fisherman to return!!

[TT-SEA]

Still windstorm potential on Sunday.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_150_precip_p03.gif

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is pretty interesting.  It keeps the block together for a longer time which drives the heights below 546 with a surface low tracking just south of Seattle.  In the winter that would be a major snow event for Seattle, especially the backwash behind the low.  Nice to see patterns like that showing up so early...assuming it happens.

[Deweydog]

You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt.

 

If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place.

I went for a 90-free September. Another degree and my credibility around here would have been shattered into a zillion pieces.

 

89 was a nice compromise.

[snow_wizard]

LOL! sooo true... and It won't be the last of some very wild speculation/wishcasts of "epicness" too (10 days out). Get your popcorn folks it is gonna be a fun ride.   --- I can't wait for Gorton the Fisherman to return!!

 

I hope you won't be a Debbie Downer this winter.  I think we will have some fun times.

[Deweydog]

Still windstorm potential on Sunday.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_150_precip_p03.gif

WRF will be interesting.

[Front Ranger]

You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt.  

 

If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place.

 

Wrong.

 

The Chinese are responsible for global warming. And the Mexicans. And the CFS.

[TT-SEA]

I hope you won't be a Debbie Downer this winter.  I think we will have some fun times.

 

 

Who cares if he wants to be?   When you decide to be Debbie Downer you go into full meltdown mode.   

[snow_wizard]

Who cares if he wants to be?   When you decide to be Debbie Downer you go into full meltdown mode.   

 

Very true.  He just has a way of popping people's hopes like a pin poking a balloon.

[Phil]

Probably safe to toss this GFS run beyond d8.

[snow_wizard]

The new GFS keeps cool weather almost a third of the way through October now.  Recent model trends have been to keep adding on to the parade of NW troughs / GOA ridges.

[Phil]

The new GFS keeps cool weather almost a third of the way through October now. Recent model trends have been to keep adding on to the parade of NW troughs / GOA ridges.

You looking at the same run I am?

 

I see a GOA trough/+EPO, with ridging dominating 90% of the NH (probably some sort of feedback error).

[Trainwreck]

Either Tim is jealous of Jim or he is just an a$$. I can't tell. Another month or so and I think I'll have it locked down.

[Phil]

That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind.

[BLI snowman]

Either Tim is jealous of Jim or he is just an a$$. I can't tell. Another month or so and I think I'll have it locked down.

I think I might have your answer. It's taken me about 10 years of close, around the clock observations.

[TT-SEA]

Very true.  He just has a way of popping people's hopes like a pin poking a balloon.

 

Don't let it bother you.    Not everyone has to be on the fantasy train.   

 

And if something actually happens then everyone is on board anyways.

[TT-SEA]

That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind.

 

 

It feels like that is how its going to evolve.     

[stuffradio]

Dear Lord!... (hint: it was sarcasm) but it feels good to be famous and the first to post "winter cancel"...  today IS a good day!    

That's the thing, I'm telling you already I posted it earlier this month.

[Jesse]

I think I might have your answer. It's taken me about 10 years of close, around the clock observations.

It's obviously everyone else. He is actually an unfairly maligned voice of reason who is continually victimized by the brutish cold mafia.

[TT-SEA]

It's obviously everyone else. He is actually an unfairly maligned voice of reason who is continually victimized by the brutish cold mafia.

 

There is a cold mafia on here for sure.   You are just much more mean-spirited than Jim.   

 

Jim and I have been getting along quite well actually.     Sorry if that is boring.  

[Bryant]

It feels like that is how its going to evolve.

This is based off of what? Your hopes?

[snow_wizard]

You looking at the same run I am?

 

I see a GOA trough/+EPO, with ridging dominating 90% of the NH (probably some sort of feedback error).

 

It looks good for the NW until Oct 8 or 9.  Certainly not as nice as week one though.

[Bryant]

Jim and I have been getting along quite well actually. Sorry if that is boring.

Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off