September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I loved that snow event in late Nov 2006. I got about 1-1.5 feet from that.

One of the most memorable events for me. The tree damage due to the weight of the snow was pretty crazy.

[Bryant]

Mark Nelson's two weeks of warm bliss is in serious trouble it would appear.

 

Amazing how it just keeps getting watered down.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

I'm intrigued to see how this plays out. Tropical circulation in the coming weeks will resemble a La Nina regime, with forcing over the IO/MT region and subsidense over the Pacific. The forecasted trade wind burst is directly connected with said subsidence over the Pacific in fact. One would think that any ridging wouldn't sustain itself for long, and ridging would retrograde offshore. We have a lot shorter wavelengths currently than during the cold months, which obviously alters the downstream configuration, so time will time I suppose.

[MossMan]

Quite breezy over the last hour.

[TT-SEA]

Quite breezy over the last hour.

 

Thanks for the reminder!   I need to take down the patio umbrellas in anticipation of wind overnight here.    

[wx_statman]

Heading up to Lake Quinault today. Should be a gorgeous early autumn day for it.

 

I love the lodge there. 

 

I hiked Beacon Rock for the first time in my life today. Kind of a fluke I didn't make it out there earlier, considering I've been visiting the gorge for 20+ years. 

[wx_statman]

Yes...that's why I was wondering why you chose a 25 year baseline.

 

1991-2020

[ShawniganLake]

74F here today. Warmest afternoon of September so far.

[Phil]

Well... at least you can turn your old timer sayings around on yourself.

 

Nature will always make fools of anyone trying to predict what she will do!

August duped all of us.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS has a different look next weekend... but its still much more troughy and much sooner than the other models.   

 

Starting to think the GFS might be due more props as Jim mentioned earlier.

[ShawniganLake]

August duped all of us.

What did August end up at anomaly wise?

[Front Ranger]

1991-2020

Gotcha. Well, it will be interesting to see if it's a sustained trend, or if things return more towards longterm climo. Like January, I think it's more due to 30 year periods being a fairly small sample size, and things going in cycles.

 

A few more years with warmer Junes than Septembers, and we'd be pretty close to the longterm difference.

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian is much warmer than the GFS for next weekend.    

[Front Ranger]

00Z Canadian is much warmer than the GFS for next weekend.

That model needs to turn things around. It's been struggling for at least a couple months.

[TT-SEA]

That model needs to turn things around. It's been struggling for at least a couple months.

Much worse than usual.

[stuffradio]

Wow, I would have loved to remember this snow storm. Can't believe Vancouver, BC got so much snow!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VJsQe7ugp4

[wx_statman]

Gotcha. Well, it will be interesting to see if it's a sustained trend, or if things return more towards longterm climo. Like January, I think it's more due to 30 year periods being a fairly small sample size, and things going in cycles.

 

A few more years with warmer Junes than Septembers, and we'd be pretty close to the longterm difference.

 

Yeah, that remains to be seen. September has definitely been averaging warmer than June to a greater and greater extent since the 1961-90 baseline, when June only averaged slightly cooler than September @ PDX. 

[BLI snowman]

I love the lodge there. 

 

I hiked Beacon Rock for the first time in my life today. Kind of a fluke I didn't make it out there earlier, considering I've been visiting the gorge for 20+ years. 

 

I avoid that trail, way too crowded.

[stuffradio]

Abbotsford got more than 2 feet of snow December 1990. I would love another December like that.

[wx_statman]

I avoid that trail, way too crowded.

 

We started at 9:30 so it was still fine. But on the way down...yeah. People coming up nonstop. 

[BLI snowman]

We started at 9:30 so it was still fine. But on the way down...yeah. People coming up nonstop. 

 

I'd recommend Hamilton Mt. right across SR 14 if you get a chance. Nice views of Beacon Rock and Mt. Hood/Mt. Adams.

[wx_statman]

I'd recommend Hamilton Mt. right across SR 14 if you get a chance. Nice views of Beacon Rock and Mt. Hood/Mt. Adams.

 

I've never done that one. Or Dog Mountain for that matter, which I might hike sometime this fall. I've mostly stuck to the Oregon side thus far. 

[ShawniganLake]

Abbotsford got more than 2 feet of snow December 1990. I would love another December like that.

The lower mainland did better than the South Island for snow during that month. 2008 was snowier for most if not everyone. 1990 had a top tier cold airmass with it, though some places actually dropped lower in 2008 with the deep fresh snow pack and clear calm night.

[Tyler Mode]

I love the lodge there. 

 

I hiked Beacon Rock for the first time in my life today. Kind of a fluke I didn't make it out there earlier, considering I've been visiting the gorge for 20+ years. 

Beacon is a nice short hike with great views...still too crowded, at least on a weekend.  My brother, nephew and I went on a Thursday a couple weeks back and hardly saw anyone.

 

Hamilton is awesome, so is Table Mountain, though it's pretty steep.

[wx_statman]

Beacon is a nice short hike with great views...still too crowded, at least on a weekend.  My brother, nephew and I went on a Thursday a couple weeks back and hardly saw anyone.

 

Hamilton is awesome, so is Table Mountain, though it's pretty steep.

 

Yeah Beacon Rock got crowded in a hurry between about 9:30 and 10:30 this morning.

 

Table Mountain sounds interesting. The origin of the Bonneville Slide. 

[BLI snowman]

I've never done that one. Or Dog Mountain for that matter, which I might hike sometime this fall. I've mostly stuck to the Oregon side thus far. 

 

Dog Mountain is nice too. Was really windy when I hiked it last year, probably 30mph at the top.

 

I have yet to do Larch Mt. on the Oregon side, really need to cross that one off my list.

[snow_wizard]

Abbotsford got more than 2 feet of snow December 1990. I would love another December like that.

 

It's not like it won't happen again.

[snow_wizard]

Now the GFS has moved up the timing on the trough next weekend.  Nice to finally see the models watering down warm periods instead of watering down cold periods.

[snow_wizard]

That model needs to turn things around. It's been struggling for at least a couple months.

 

Kind of interesting that even the ECMWF has continually failed to acknowledge the tenacity of the GOA ridge as of late.  The GFS is the only model that seems to have caught onto that regime.

[wx_statman]

Dog Mountain is nice too. Was really windy when I hiked it last year, probably 30mph at the top.

 

I have yet to do Larch Mt. on the Oregon side, really need to cross that one off my list.

 

Larch Mountain to Multnomah Falls is a great hike. I've only ever done the lower half though. 

[stuffradio]

The weatherbell winter forecast showing we will be warm and below normal snow is solely based on a warm ring right along the west coast.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, it definitely varies by location. In Tacoma, where I grew up for the most part...

 

1988-89: Very good winter

1989-90: Decent thanks to one snow event

1990-91: Very good, though not as good as further north

1991-92: Terrible

1992-93: Ok, but no true Arctic air or major snowstorms (a couple 2-3")

1993-94: Terrible aside from modified Arctic event with just a dusting of snowfall in November

1994-95: Ok, thanks to a 4-5" snowstorm in early December

1995-96: Good 

1996-97: Good, though we missed out on the huge snows Seattle north had (about 12-13" total in December, so still good)

1997-98: Decent, thanks to big snowstorm in January

1998-99: Ok, thanks to major Arctic blast in December with a little snow, and a little snow in February

 

More recently

 

2006-07: Good

2007-08: Ok, a few small snow events

2008-09: Very good

2009-10: Ok, due to Arctic event and small snowfall in December

2010-11: Good, two major Arctic events and decent snow

2011-12: Good, major snow/ice storm in January

2012-13: Bad, just modified Arctic event in January with a little snow

2013-14: Decent thanks to two Arctic events, but very little snow

 

If 2013-14 had just managed to deliver a significant snowfall or two, it would have been probably the best 8 year stretch since at least 1983-91.

 

EDIT: If I go back to 2005-14 in Tacoma, it was actually a decent 9 year stretch, since Dec 2005 had a significant snowstorm (6") and the Arctic windstorm event in February.

 

November 1993 was a pretty decent Arctic outbreak at least from a regional perspective. Darrington hit 0 degrees in the Cascade foothills, second only to -4 in 1955 for November. In Oregon, Fremont hit -29 which was only three degrees from the state record low for the month of November. Boise hit 0. PDX at 35/18. 

 

Legitimate Arctic outbreak for many places. 

[snow_wizard]

The weatherbell winter forecast showing we will be warm and below normal snow is solely based on a warm ring right along the west coast.

 

The warmth is gone now.  Cold SST's are now in place along the coast.

[Front Ranger]

November 1993 was a pretty decent Arctic outbreak at least from a regional perspective. Darrington hit 0 degrees in the Cascade foothills, second only to -4 in 1955 for November. In Oregon, Fremont hit -29 which was only three degrees from the state record low for the month of November. Boise hit 0. PDX at 35/18. 

 

Legitimate Arctic outbreak for many places. 

 

Yeah, when the highlight of the winter is highs in the mid 30s with little to no snow, I don't think that's a good winter.

[ShawniganLake]

The warmth is gone now.  Cold SST's are now in place along the coast.

[Geos]

74° for a high today. Perfect weather for a September day. 

 

Meant to share this pictures from two days ago on the North Fork Skykomish River.

 

 

 

[wx_statman]

Yeah, when the highlight of the winter is highs in the mid 30s with little to no snow, I don't think that's a good winter.

 

No it certainly wasn't. But that event deserves its due. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, when the highlight of the winter is highs in the mid 30s with little to no snow, I don't think that's a good winter.

 

As others have pointed out, it was a decent event for a lot of places.

 

Tacoma did well, 2" of snow with the front and a daytime high in the 20s on 11/22. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ktcm/1993/11/22/DailyHistory.html

 

Certainly beats anything in 2012-13, 2014-15, or 2015-16 for that locale.

[wx_statman]

As others have pointed out, it was a decent event for a lot of places.

 

Tacoma did well, 2" of snow with the front and a daytime high in the 20s on 11/22. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ktcm/1993/11/22/DailyHistory.html

 

Certainly beats anything in 2012-13, 2014-15, or 2015-16 for that locale.

 

That's a great Arctic frontal passage for any time of year in the south Sound, especially so in November. 

[Phil]

Interesting paper regarding solar activity and ENSO. Still amazing that more researchers/forecasters haven't caught onto the probable fact that subdecadal tendencies in solar activity largely drive low frequency tendencies in tropical convection (hence ENSO).

 

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/16742834.2016.1231567

 

Note, this solar-based prediction was made back in May:

 

Recent SST and atmospheric circulation anomaly data suggest that the 2015/16 El Niño event is quickly decaying. Some researchers have predicted a forthcoming La Niña event in late summer or early fall 2016. From the perspective of the modulation of tropical SST by solar activity, the authors studied the evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño event, which occurred right after the 2014 solar peak year. Based on statistical and composite analysis, a significant positive correlation was found between sunspot number index and El Niño Modoki index, with a lag of two years. A clear evolution of El Niño Modoki events was found within 1–3 years following each solar peak year during the past 126 years, suggesting that anomalously strong solar activity during solar peak periods favors the triggering of an El Niño Modoki event. The patterns of seasonal mean SST and wind anomalies since 2014 are more like a mixture of two types of El Niño (i.e., eastern Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki), which is similar to the pattern modulated by solar activity during the years following a solar peak. Therefore, the El Niño Modoki component in the 2015/16 El Niño event may be a consequence of solar activity, which probably will not decay as quickly as the eastern Pacific El Niño component. The positive SST anomaly will probably sustain in the central equatorial Pacific (around the dateline) and the northeastern Pacific along the coast of North America, with a low-intensity level, during the second half of 2016.

[Abbotsford_wx]

1992-93: Ok, but no true Arctic air or major snowstorms (a couple 2-3")

 

Really? January 1993 was top tier up here.

 

20" of snow (three solid weeks of snowcover and no rain in the first 18 days of the month)

11 sub-freezing highs

Low of 2.5F

Monthly mean of 29.8F

 

 

 

Actually, that event began in late December, and there had already been some decent snow earlier in the month. 37" of snow in total over those two months.