ENSO Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Agreed. Jan/Feb 1996 was definitely a regional Arctic outbreak, but for the western lowlands overall, definitely not top tier or better than many of those other blasts you mentioned.

 

For example, OLM only saw two sub-freezing highs and no single digit lows with that.

 

Yeah, it was a good event, but away from the gorge nothing earth shattering. SLE had 2 sub-freezing highs with it, and bottomed out at 15. The day PDX was 23/18, SLE was 32/19. 

 

We had about 4" of snow in Silverton on the 26th or 27th, but it melted in the 2 days before the arctic air arrived. If it had stuck around we would have been able to have some good radiational cooling. 

[Front Ranger]

If I remember correctly we had about a foot of snow going into it and remained below freezing for the most part up here for about a week...but its very hazy now.

 

I doubt it was that long. No data for Arlington for that event, but Sedro Wooley saw 3 sub-freezing highs. Monroe had a couple. 

 

BLI did better with 5, but of course they almost always kick everyone else's a** in outflow situations.

[BLI snowman]

Got down to 5 here in 1996, with snow on the ground the entire event and a nice string of subfreezing days. Definitely was a Portland area-special on the westside.

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake dropped to 8 in January 1996. The only time we have been colder since was December 2008.

[MossMan]

I doubt it was that long. No data for Arlington for that event, but Sedro Wooley saw 3 sub-freezing highs. Monroe had a couple. 

 

BLI did better with 5, but of course they almost always kick everyone else's a** in outflow situations.

Could be, though at Lake Goodwin the temp always runs about 3-5 degrees below Marysville and Arlington for highs. Their lows are sometimes lower however so I might have hovered at or just below freezing especially with snow cover. I did see Everett had a low of 12 so if I remember correctly I remember seeing a low of 8.

[ShawniganLake]

Could be, though at Lake Goodwin the temp always runs about 3-5 degrees below Marysville and Arlington for highs. Their lows are sometimes lower however so I might have hovered at or just below freezing especially with snow cover. I did see Everett had a low of 12 so if I remember correctly I remember seeing a low of 8.

We only had 3 consecutive highs below freezing up here. But we did have 18 consecutive days below 40. So it’s quite possible you had a week with highs below or just slightly above freezing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We only had 3 consecutive highs below freezing up here. But we did have 18 consecutive days below 40. So it’s quite possible you had a week with highs below or just slightly above freezing.

 

I remember a lot of non-sticking snow with about 1000' snow levels the 2nd half of January 96'. I remember calling up to Silver Falls each morning asking how much snow they had gotten.

[Phil]

Big-time Walker/Indo cell amplification upcoming as the equatorward wavetrain strengthens in response to the -NAM, and affects the dateline/warm pool convection.

 

Result: A strong, slow-propagating, wave-1 system and associated trade wind burst.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not good news if it verifies

@DTVaWeatherman

Its temporary. We will get ours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Winter needs to be canceled as soon as possible, guys.

 

 

Feel better!? 

 

[BLI snowman]

Feel better!? 

 

chopsticks-upright-bowl-rice-500x0_q80_crop-smart_upscale-true.jpg

 

That rice is much more stick-y than our snow is going to be!

[Guest happ]

Its temporary. We will get ours.

 

You may "get" yours but will California get anything this winter? 

[Front Ranger]

You may "get" yours but will California get anything this winter? 

 

How'd you guys do in 1989-90, 1995-96, and 1981-82? Those three analogs have really been leading the way lately.

[Guest happ]

How'd you guys do in 1989-90, 1995-96, and 1981-82? Those three analogs have really been leading the way lately.

 

Not good for downtown.

 

1981-82:  10.71

1989-90:  7.35

1995-96:  12.46

 

per: http://www.laalmanac.com/weather/we08aa.php

[Front Ranger]

Ouch. How about 1962-63?

[Guest happ]

Ouch. How about 1962-63?

 

Are you trying to depress me?

 

Rain total for 1962-63 was: 8.38

[ShawniganLake]

I remember a lot of non-sticking snow with about 1000' snow levels the 2nd half of January 96'. I remember calling up to Silver Falls each morning asking how much snow they had gotten.

We had a lot of snow that month, 25”, but most of it fell before the arctic air arrived on the 28th.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. Jan/Feb 1996 was definitely a regional Arctic outbreak, but for the western lowlands overall, definitely not top tier or better than many of those other blasts you mentioned.

 

For example, OLM only saw two sub-freezing highs and no single digit lows with that.

 

It dropped to 9 where I was living in Woodinville.  All I know is the lakes around here haven't frozen over as thick as they did that winter since.

[snow_wizard]

Its temporary. We will get ours.

 

Agreed.  This actually makes something huge seem more likely.

[snow_wizard]

Big-time Walker/Indo cell amplification upcoming as the equatorward wavetrain strengthens in response to the -NAM, and affects the dateline/warm pool convection.

 

Result: A strong, slow-propagating, wave-1 system and associated trade wind burst.

 

 

That is probably the most extreme gradient I have ever seen on that graph.  Something big has to happen with that.

[Front Ranger]

It dropped to 9 where I was living in Woodinville.  All I know is the lakes around here haven't frozen over as thick as they did that winter since.

 

The proof is in the pudding. The numbers in western WA simply weren't as impressive in 1996 as they have been in some Arctic outbreaks since.

[Jesse]

The proof is in the pudding. The numbers in western WA simply weren't as impressive in 1996 as they have been in some Arctic outbreaks since.

Your recency bias is usually pretty apparent.

[BLI snowman]

That is probably the most extreme gradient I have ever seen on that graph.  Something big has to happen with that.

 

Wettest January on record incoming?

[BLI snowman]

The proof is in the pudding. The numbers in western WA simply weren't as impressive in 1996 as they have been in some Arctic outbreaks since.

 

December 1998 is probably the only one that was more impressive in an outright sense. November 2010 and December 2008 were probably about equal in Western WA.

[snow_wizard]

The proof is in the pudding. The numbers in western WA simply weren't as impressive in 1996 as they have been in some Arctic outbreaks since.

 

I think it was duration and the fact it had been cold for many days before the big blast that made that one so good IMO.  It also managed to come up with clear skies during the cold weather.

[snow_wizard]

Wettest January on record incoming?

 

We've already had our very wet period.  This month ended up very wet here.

[Front Ranger]

Your recency bias is usually pretty apparent.

Look at the numbers for western WA in 1996 vs other Arctic outbreaks. If you think I'm wrong, prove it.

[Front Ranger]

December 1998 is probably the only one that was more impressive in an outright sense. November 2010 and December 2008 were probably about equal in Western WA.

Dec 2008 produced way more sub-freezing highs most places in Western WA.

[snow_wizard]

Dec 2008 produced way more sub-freezing highs most places in Western WA.

 

I liked 1996 better.  I lived in the same place for both.  Jan 1996 was much more enjoyable.

[Front Ranger]

I liked 1996 better. I lived in the same place for both. Jan 1996 was much more enjoyable.

Sure, that's cool. Also subjective... I'm talking hard, objective numbers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better/ more enjoyable (So bring some good ole' subjectivity into this.) arctic outbreaks here since 1996.

 

Dec 98

Jan  04

Dec  08

Dec  09

Dec  13

Feb  14

[BLI snowman]

Dec 2008 produced way more sub-freezing highs most places in Western WA.

 

I'm talking more about intensity than duration.

[Jesse]

I'm talking more about intensity than duration.

I think most of us are.

[Front Ranger]

I think it was duration and the fact it had been cold for many days before the big blast that made that one so good IMO.  It also managed to come up with clear skies during the cold weather.

 

 

I'm talking more about intensity than duration.

 

 

I think most of us are.

 

Duration aside, OLM, SEA, Arlington, and other western WA locations all got colder in 2008 than 1996. 

 

1996 was simply a different animal for Portland than most of the rest of the region.

[BLI snowman]

Duration aside, OLM, SEA, Arlington, and other western WA locations all got colder in 2008 than 1996. 

 

Lows for Western WA stations

 

Vancouver 4NNE: 1996: 5, 2008: 10

Longview: 1996: 15, 2008: 17

Centralia: 1996: 14, 2008: 18

OLM: 1996: 10, 2008: 7

TCM: 1996: 7, 2008: 13

SEA: 1996: 15, 2008: 14

Monroe: 1996: 9, 2008: 5

Sedo-Woolley: 1996: 15, 2008: 9

BLI: 1996: 10, 2008; 11

 

Pretty comparable level of cold there overall for the Western WA I-5 corridor. Highs are a similar story.

[Front Ranger]

Lows for Western WA stations

 

Vancouver 4NNE: 1996: 5, 2008: 10

Longview: 1996: 15, 2008: 17

Centralia: 1996: 14, 2008: 18

OLM: 1996: 10, 2008: 7

TCM: 1996: 7, 2008: 13

SEA: 1996: 15, 2008: 14

Monroe: 1996: 9, 2008: 5

Sedo-Woolley: 1996: 15, 2008: 9

BLI: 1996: 10, 2008; 11

 

Pretty comparable level of cold there overall for the Western WA I-5 corridor. Highs are a similar story.

 

5/7 of the non-outflow stations you list were colder in 2008.

 

Regardless, you make the same basic point...for most of western WA, 1996 definitely didn't have the edge for intensity, and it wasn't close for duration of sub-freezing cold.

[BLI snowman]

5/7 of the non-outflow stations you list were colder in 2008.

 

Regardless, you make the same basic point...for most of western WA, 1996 definitely didn't have the edge for intensity, and it wasn't close for duration of sub-freezing cold.

 

Eh? Better count again, I listed 9 spots there and 5 were colder in 1996. Easterly outflow spots weren't the only ones colder in 1996.

 

I know you like to generally put a lot of emphasis on the big stations in the Olympia to Everett corridor, but it's still just a relatively small chunk of western WA. 

[Front Ranger]

Eh? Better count again, I listed 9 spots there and 5 were colder in 1996. Easterly outflow spots weren't the only ones colder in 1996.

 

I know you like to generally put a lot of emphasis on the big stations in the Olympia to Everett corridor, but it's still just a relatively small chunk of western WA.

Yeah, Vancouver and BLI are outflow locations. I was pointing out that regionally, outside of outflow locations it really isn't close. 2008 was at least as cold as 1996 most places, and the truly cold days were easily more numerous in 2008.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, Vancouver and BLI are outflow locations. I was pointing out that regionally, outside of outflow locations it really isn't close. 2008 was at least as cold as 1996 most places, and the truly cold days were easily more numerous in 2008.

 

You're moving the goalposts.

 

In terms of intensity for Western WA overall (overall meaning overall), which is what you and I have been discussing, the arctic airmass in 1996 was indeed very comparable to either of the airmasses in December 2008.

 

There wasn't a clear gap there and it's definitely hyperbolic to say that "they aren't close".

[Front Ranger]

I feel like you're just looking for a semantics battle. I meant when looking at a combination of duration and intensity, it's not close. I was never looking at intensity alone, and neither was Jim. 2008 was easily the more impressive event for western WA, apart from isolated outflow areas.

 

And that's not even including snowfall. 2008 had way more almost everywhere.