October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Anyone getting rain?  The radar is showing lots of dark greens moving through, but so far I've just seen a few sprinkles...

Lots of rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.26" so far this evening. 

[TT-SEA]

NAM keeps the band of rain solidly over King County all weekend.    Pretty funny to watch the precip loop.

 

Does not really matter for us though this weekend since my son is having surgery.     

[Deweydog]

NAM keeps the band of rain solidly over King County all weekend. Pretty funny to watch the precip loop.

 

Does not really matter for us though this weekend since my son is having surgery.

You're making him have surgery because it's supposed to rain?

 

Sick.

[TT-SEA]

You're making him have surgery because it's supposed to rain?

 

Sick.

 

 

I know... desperate times call for desperate measures.

[snow_wizard]

At least the rain tonight might drag the temps down a little bit.  The lows last night were absurdly warm for how cool the air mass is.

[TT-SEA]

At least the rain tonight might drag the temps down a little bit.  The lows last night were absurdly warm for how cool the air mass is.

 

 

I wouldn't count on much lower... GFS MOS shows 53 at SEA tonight and then 64 tomorrow.   Should get a decent amount of sun with SW winds tomorrow.      

 

It will be another above normal day.  

[Phil]

I wouldn't count on much lower... GFS MOS shows 53 at SEA tonight and then 64 tomorrow. Should get a decent amount of sun with SW winds tomorrow.

 

It will be another above normal day.

I'm thinking dreary, damp, and depressing.

[Deweydog]

The Weather Channel crew seems a little starved for things to talk about. I'm pretty boring.

[snow_wizard]

This little storm actually looks pretty decent on the sat pic.  Could be capable of producing some high winds on Vancouver Island.

[MossMan]

Raining and 50 degrees here currently. Yay.

[TT-SEA]

I'm thinking dreary, damp, and depressing.

 

Sunny!   

[TT-SEA]

The Weather Channel crew seems a little starved for things to talk about. I'm pretty boring.

 

I saw on one channel they were driving aimlessly around Palm Beach... shocking video.   Wipers were on moderate setting and the trees seemed to be moving a little.   I was riveted to the screen.

 

I could do some live shots later tonight here that look more exciting.   

 

What is the point of these reporters driving around?   KING5 does it all the time when it threatens to snow here.   Even if its just flurries or just sticking to the grass.   I can't watch local news.

 

Daily Show did a good take on weather hype last year.   Check out the BlizzardMobile at 7 minutes.  

 

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/nbzjjh/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-blizzapocalypsegeddon--15---the-white-erdammerung-

[Front Ranger]

You're making him have surgery because it's supposed to rain?

 

Sick.

 

His son must be approaching Michael Jackson levels of surgery experience at this point.

[Deweydog]

I saw on one channel they were driving aimlessly around Palm Beach... shocking video. Wipers were on moderate setting and the trees seemed to be moving a little. I was riveted to the screen.

 

I could do some live shots later tonight here that look more exciting.

 

What is the point of these reporters driving around? KING5 does it all the time when it threatens to snow here. Even if its just flurries or just sticking to the grass. I can't watch local news.

 

Daily Show did a good take on weather hype last year. Check out the BlizzardMobile at 7 minutes.

 

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/nbzjjh/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-blizzapocalypsegeddon--15---the-white-erdammerung-

People watch it.

[Front Ranger]

I saw on one channel they were driving aimlessly around Palm Beach... shocking video.   Wipers were on moderate setting and the trees seemed to be moving a little.   I was riveted to the screen.

 

I could do some live shots later tonight here that look more exciting.   

 

What is the point of these reporters driving around?   KING5 does it all the time when it threatens to snow here.   Even if its just flurries or just sticking to the grass.   I can't watch local news.

 

They are desperately searching for a Cantore moment.

 

[Front Ranger]

Raining and 50 degrees here currently. Yay.

 

Heads up, buttercup. The dry season is coming to an end. Only 6-7 months before it returns.

[TT-SEA]

They are desperately searching for a Cantore moment.

 

 

I laugh every time I see this video.

[Phil]

They are desperately searching for a Cantore moment.

 

Yeah, I think I'm ready for winter now.

[Phil]

Tim when the sun peeks through the cloud deck.

[ShawniganLake]

This little storm actually looks pretty decent on the sat pic. Could be capable of producing some high winds on Vancouver Island.

Gusting close to 60 off the southern tip of Victoria

[Phil]

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.

[TT-SEA]

Tim when the sun peeks through the cloud deck.

 

Non-stop from Phil tonight... trouble dealing with anxiety?      

[TT-SEA]

Gusting close to 60 off the southern tip of Victoria

 

 

Where is the Weather Channel???   

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.

 

Yup. Looking like a very close brush with northern FL. Actual landfall probably comes down to how much that eyewall does/does not contract.

[Phil]

Non-stop from Phil tonight... trouble dealing with anxiety?

You know I'm right.

 

And yeah, probably.

[Deweydog]

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.

Just looks like it's weakening slowly to me. I dunno...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This little storm actually looks pretty decent on the sat pic.  Could be capable of producing some high winds on Vancouver Island.

 

Winds are blasted against the house here in Victoria, wish I had a weather station setup. Pretty meagre rainfall so far, I was hoping we'd pick up a little more than this due to proximity to the low and what looks like a westerly flow but the heavy stuff has stayed firmly to the north. The 0z GFS takes the heavy weekend rains over central WA rather than SW BC. Might miss out on significant rain to both the north and south if that happens.

[TT-SEA]

Winds are blasted against the house here in Victoria, wish I had a weather station setup. Pretty meagre rainfall so far, I was hoping we'd pick up a little more than this due to proximity to the low and what looks like a westerly flow but the heavy stuff has stayed firmly to the north. The 0z GFS takes the heavy weekend rains over central WA rather than SW BC. Might miss out on significant rain to both the north and south if that happens.

 

 

We need it more!    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods. 

[Deweydog]

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods.

Who do you have to kill to get a decent death toll these days???

[Phil]

Just looks like it's weakening slowly to me. I dunno...

A storm typically weakens during an ERC, while the core grows.

 

Figure skater analogy, AKA conservation of angular momentum..pull your arms in and you'll spin faster, and visa versa.

[Phil]

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods.

Shhh don't jinx it.

 

Oh, and then there was Sandy #micdrop

[BLI snowman]

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods. 

 

Sandy and Ike were okay.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shhh don't jinx it.

 

Oh, and then there was Sandy #micdrop

 

Sandy wasn't even a hurricane by the time it hit. #weak

[snow_wizard]

0z trends much cooler Sunday and Monday now.  Thicknesses drop to 546 and 850s to 3C over Seattle.  A far cry from what looked like a torch a couple of days ago.

[Phil]

Sandy wasn't even a hurricane by the time it hit. #weak

You said "delivered the goods". I'd say 2-3ft of snow, 100mph gusts, 10-15ft of surge, 50ft waves, and 12-18" of rain w/ imbedded thunderstorms would suffice in that regard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sandy and Ike were okay.

 

Katrina set a whole new standard. 

[TT-SEA]

0z trends much cooler Sunday and Monday now.  Thicknesses drop to 546 and 850s to 3C over Seattle.  A far cry from what looked like a torch a couple of days ago.

 

 

Almost like an arctic front that actually over-performs.  

[Phil]

Katrina set a whole new standard.

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.