October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

I have a great idea, let's talk about weather forecasts and how much snow we want this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, that sounded made up.

 

Regardless, I don't want to get drug into the mud anymore. So I will likely go back to refraining from responding. It's difficult when someone so guilty acts so innocent. It makes you wonder if they've gotten to the point where they have actually got themselves convinced.

 

For hating Trump so much he and Tim certainly have some uncanny similarities.

 

 

Last night is a perfect example... what is my evil motive for asking a question on something I did not understand?   

 

You might be able to work yourself into another ban for this stupid behavior.   Your 'holier-than-thou' act is sure ironic.

[luminen]

I have a great idea, let's talk about weather forecasts and how much snow we want this winter.

 

Or the big area of moderate/heavy rainfall approaching us right now.

[Jesse]

Or the big area of moderate/heavy rainfall approaching us right now.

There is some pretty interesting stuff coming up for sure. Shaping up to be one of the more active Octobers in recent memory.

[snow_wizard]

The last couple of GFS runs have now trended longer lasting for the cold air mass early next week.  Another solid cold shot showing up on the 12z during week two now.  Things look much better than they did earlier in the week.  Looks like we will get our first frost reasonably early after all in many places.

[Bryant]

You might be able to work yourself into another ban for this stupid behavior. Your 'holier-than-thou' act is sure ironic.

Apparently you haven't managed to do that yet, so it must be near impossible

[Bryant]

There is some pretty interesting stuff coming up for sure. Shaping up to be one of the more active Octobers in recent memory.

A few good wind storms would be nice, curious to see how sheltered my location is

[Phil]

Significantly weaker than average zonal wind integral from 1000mb to 10mb is forecasted to continue through at least the next two weeks, across the entire NH. Should this persist into winter, very good things will happen.

 

The PV is now officially the weakest ever recorded during October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Can't say I expected this.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently you haven't managed to do that yet, so it must be near impossible

 

 

Yeah... but someone else has recently.    And is working on it again with personal attacks every day.     

[snow_wizard]

One of analogs from yesterdays 6 to 10 day outlook composite was 10-11-1962.  If there were currently some typhoon remnants over the Pacific I  might be a little worried.

[Phil]

What's one thing the last several winters had in common?

 

A raging, unabating, vertically stacked PV and flat NPAC anticyclones. As of now, it doesn't look like we're heading that way this year.

[TT-SEA]

The last couple of GFS runs have now trended longer lasting for the cold air mass early next week.  Another solid cold shot showing up on the 12z during week two now.  Things look much better than they did earlier in the week.  Looks like we will get our first frost reasonably early after all in many places.

 

 

Monday - Wednesday look perfect for October.   GFS MOS has low 60s during the day and low 40s at night.   OLM will certainly have frost.  

[snow_wizard]

Significantly weaker than average zonal wind integral from 1000mb to 10mb is forecasted to continue through at least the next two weeks, across the entire NH. Should this persist into winter, very good things will happen.

 

The PV is now officially the weakest ever recorded during October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Can't say I expected this.

 

Wow!  No doubt things seem to be on an exciting path right now.  Maybe that ugly multi year Nino finally kicked things in the arse a little bit.  Another thing I noticed is the CFS (FWIW) shows Siberia not torching this winter for the first time in recent memory.  Something has changed.

[TT-SEA]

One of analogs from yesterdays 6 to 10 day outlook composite was 10-11-1962.  If there were currently some typhoon remnants over the Pacific I  might be a little worried.

 

Will Chaba get sucked into the westerlies?

[stuffradio]

Some eye candy to smooth things over.

Shows 7" for Abbotsford, BC. Man I love carrots.

[TT-SEA]

One of analogs from yesterdays 6 to 10 day outlook composite was 10-11-1962.  If there were currently some typhoon remnants over the Pacific I  might be a little worried.

 

 

I keep seeing 1992 on the analog list as well.     

[Phil]

Wow! No doubt things seem to be on an exciting path right now. Maybe that ugly multi year Nino finally kicked things in the arse a little bit. Another thing I noticed is the CFS (FWIW) shows Siberia not torching this winter for the first time in recent memory. Something has changed.

"Changed" is possibly an understatement. This regime looks straight out of the 1960s playbook to me, minus the broad Hadley Cells.

[snow_wizard]

This post is weather related...

 

I went to the MSNBC site and you actually have to dig to find out anything about Matthew making landfall.  Absolutely shameful they would put The Trump debacle over that in prominence.  Perhaps they are dismayed there is a collective yawn regarding Trump.

[snow_wizard]

Some eye candy to smooth things over.

 

Snowfall forecasts over a month out?  They won't be able to pull that off in this region 1000 years from now.

 

Cool graphic and quite surprising how many members show it though.

[TT-SEA]

This post is weather related...

 

I went to the MSNBC site and you actually have to dig to find out anything about Matthew making landfall.  Absolutely shameful they would put The Trump debacle over that in prominence.  Perhaps they are dismayed there is a collective yawn regarding Trump.

 

 

Well... its the end of this presidential race.   Sort of interesting.   You can't brag about assaulting women and expect to win an election in 2016.   Regardless of who did it in the past.   You will see.      

[Phil]

Go gives a crap about Trump? There's a thread for that.

[snow_wizard]

Go gives a crap about Trump? There's a thread for that.

 

The post was kind of about Matthew also.  I think most people going to news sites are looking for that.

 

Apparently the ECMWF weeklies are looking cold for November?

[MossMan]

Windy and dry up here so far this morning.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ensemble completely removes warmth from the mean now, except for a few short / weak blips.  If we're going to have a cold November I want to see a cold October before it.

[snow_wizard]

Windy and dry up here so far this morning.

 

Probably shadowed up you way.

[MossMan]

Probably shadowed up you way.

Yep seems that way! Hopefully the shadow lasts just a couple more hours so we can have a dry pumpkin patch experience!

[snow_wizard]

"Changed" is possibly an understatement. This regime looks straight out of the 1960s playbook to me, minus the broad Hadley Cells.

 

The 60s weren't really great here overall, but they did have their moments.  A lot of blockiness though.  A blend of the 50s and 60s could be really interesting.  Maybe we would have to go further back to find a really good match.

[TT-SEA]

Yep seems that way! Hopefully the shadow lasts just a couple more hours so we can have a dry pumpkin patch experience!

Go soon!

[Phil]

The 60s weren't really great here overall, but they did have their moments. A lot of blockiness though. A blend of the 50s and 60s could be really interesting. Maybe we would have to go further back to find a really good match.

To me it looks like a blend between the 1960s background state and the 1980s background state.

[MossMan]

Go soon!

I'm trying! However my wife is one of those crazy people that actually likes slogging through mud and rain so she doesn't have the same urgency as I do.

[TT-SEA]

I'm trying! However my wife is one of those crazy people that actually likes slogging through mud and rain so she doesn't have the same urgency as I do.

Then take your time!

[snow_wizard]

To me it looks like a blend between the 1960s background state and the 1980s background state.

 

That could work.  We had many Arctic blasts in the 80s.

[snow_wizard]

50 degrees in Bellingham at 11am.  That is 6 to 10 degrees lower than the WRF had predicted for that time.  Already getting some indication of how cool this Canadian front will be.

[Farmboy]

The last couple of GFS runs have now trended longer lasting for the cold air mass early next week.  Another solid cold shot showing up on the 12z during week two now.  Things look much better than they did earlier in the week.  Looks like we will get our first frost reasonably early after all in many places.

Weather Channel says a low of 42 for my area Monday night.  Kind of hard to get frost with temps like those...

[Guest Winterdog]

Some eye candy to smooth things over.

Since I'll be in Manila the first half of November I'm sure it will verify.

[Brennan]

50 degrees in Bellingham at 11am.  That is 6 to 10 degrees lower than the WRF had predicted for that time.  Already getting some indication of how cool this Canadian front will be.

It has been pouring down rain all morning. Sky is dark and it feels like 8am. I drove to Costco and back earlier. Lots of street flooding from the first wind blowing leaves into the drains. ENjoying the first true taste of fall. 

[ShawniganLake]

50 degrees in Bellingham at 11am.  That is 6 to 10 degrees lower than the WRF had predicted for that time.  Already getting some indication of how cool this Canadian front will be.

Looks like maybe a little Fraser River outflow on Monday.  Might be the wind that prevents a frost though, at least up that way. 

[snow_wizard]

Weather Channel says a low of 42 for my area Monday night.  Kind of hard to get frost with temps like those...

 

They could be wrong you know.  There will be frost in some areas.

[snow_wizard]

Since I'll be in Manila the first half of November I'm sure it will verify.

 

It happens to people on this forum all the time.

[snow_wizard]

It has been pouring down rain all morning. Sky is dark and it feels like 8am. I drove to Costco and back earlier. Lots of street flooding from the first wind blowing leaves into the drains. ENjoying the first true taste of fall. 

 

Really nice looking cold snap the next 3 or 4 days.  Things just keep looking better for our prospects this winter.  As always in recent years my biggest fear is it will do too much too early.  On the other hand maybe it will hit early and often this time.