October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

As it appears the low is lanfalling the SW side of Vancouver island currently, I would expect gusts to increase rapidly here over the next hour or so. likely to see gusts near 50mph. Storm total is well over 4" here now. Normal for the month is just less than 5".

[Canadian guy]

Here the latest from Cliff Mass.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/major-windstorm-tornadoes-and-much-more.html

[HighlandExperience]

I think we can be thankful we didn't get anything like some places on the coast. I like my house in one piece.

 

Quite frankly I just don't care for severe weather except for a good lightning storm every now and then. For me it's about cold and snow.

I agree. I'm pretty happy not having trees fall over. Just seems to me that a lot of hype surrounded this for the major metro area.

 

In just glad this season is active. I really want to get the monkey off my back with no real snow the last 3 years!!!

[snow_wizard]

D**n impressive wind obs the last hour.  Bellingham, Shelton, Forks, and Hoquiam all had gusts over 50 with several more in the 40s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So it appears yesterday was the 3rd highest daily rainfall total at SLE on record for October. 

 

2.71 - October 31, 1994

2.53 - October 27, 1994

2.45 - October 13, 2016

[MossMan]

D**n impressive wind obs the last hour. Bellingham, Shelton, Forks, and Hoquiam all had gusts over 50 with several more in the 40s.

It has gotten intense up here over the last half hr!!

[snow_wizard]

It has gotten intense up here over the last half hr!!

 

Seattle is JUST going to miss out on this it appears.  Perfect track but the field of tight pressure gradient is just a tad too far north.

[TT-SEA]

Let's go GFS!!

 

(But we all know ECMWF will be right - as usual.  <_>

 

 

NWS Seattle on Twitter:

 

 

I am personally rooting for the Canadian.  

[seattleweatherguy]

At face value for each model how bad are winds for the puget sound?

[Jbolin]

At face value for each model how bad are winds for the puget sound?

Strong, Weak, Weaker, Weakest ( from right to left )

[seattleweatherguy]

Strong, Weak, Weaker, Weakest ( from right to left )

Okay understood. But would like wind gust speeds. Does this effect OR too at face value for each?

[snow_wizard]

Okay understood. But would like wind gust speeds. Does this effect OR too at face value for each?

 

I would say.

 

GFS - gusts 60 to 75 for Seattle

 

ECMWF - gusts 50 to 60 for Seattle

 

GEM - not much wind at all for Seattle.

[crf450ish]

What time is this thing due to make landfall?

[Tundra]

The newest edition of the 12z DWD-ICON, which is one of the newest models created from Germany shows a closer track to the coastline and would give a better chance of stronger winds farther inland. The Storm eventually passes through Puget Sound. 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/WGE_PN_030_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/WGE_PN_033_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/WGE_PN_036_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/dwd_icon_amer_12/WGE_PN_039_0000.gif

[Brennan]

Winds are REALLY cranking here now. Just had our strongest wind gust of the event, not registered in mph, but very obviously peaking right now. Sitting at my dining table just staring out at the forest watching the trees sway... anyone else doing the same? 

 

56mph gust just now. 

[Brennan]

Can someone tell me how to take a simple photo on my iphone and post it to the forum? I am trying to and it keep saying the file size is too large. 

[snow_wizard]

Can someone tell me how to take a simple photo on my iphone and post it to the forum? I am trying to and it keep saying the file size is too large. 

 

You can google picture resizer and some options will come up.

[snow_wizard]

Models are in excellent agreement that wind for Seattle will hit around 5pm or 6pm tomorrow.  Strength is anyone's guess at this point.

[stuffradio]

62,000+ without power up here now. I'm getting heavy rains and winds gusting heavily, but I don't have a way to measure it. The wind was gusting strong enough to make me not go on my run though.

[seattleweatherguy]

I would say.

 

GFS - gusts 60 to 75 for Seattle

 

ECMWF - gusts 50 to 60 for Seattle

 

GEM - not much wind at all for Seattle.

 

Snow  wizard thanks man learning a lot just by reading and model watching. This all helps. I guess we will wait and see which model seems better. Also part of my family is driving from seattle to medford then cali the next day. Does OR get hit with any winds Sat? Like advisory or higher levels.

[stuffradio]

A 15 year old boy at a city near Vancouver, BC was struck by a falling tree.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z looks kind of wimpy with the storm.  Not as strong and it tracks more to the NW than the 12z.  Hard to believe it would be weaker and track less favorably for wind.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS is pretty much exact same track/strength as 12z. 976mb off Neah Bay, 981mb over Vancouver.

 

Thinking higher resolution models (such as HRRR) will start becoming more useful as tiny differences in strength/track, if any, become more apparent by tomorrow AM.

 

I think the track appears more to the NW.

[snow_wizard]

Snow  wizard thanks man learning a lot just by reading and model watching. This all helps. I guess we will wait and see which model seems better. Also part of my family is driving from seattle to medford then cali the next day. Does OR get hit with any winds Sat? Like advisory or higher levels.

 

Probably not much down there except along the coast and maybe the Portland area.

[seattleweatherguy]

Probably not much down there except along the coast and maybe the Portland area.

I posted a thread add that too it please and what about timing for that area? They should be past Portland by 5pm.

[snow_wizard]

I guess the strength is the same on the 18z vs 12z, but the track is certainly west of the 12z track.

[TT-SEA]

I guess the strength is the same on the 18z vs 12z, but the track is certainly west of the 12z track.

 

 

Good.

[snow_wizard]

I posted a thread add that too it please and what about timing for that area? They should be past Portland by 5pm.

 

Down there it will hit mid afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Just a typical beautiful October afternoon in Seattle.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Strong gusts hit here just before 3pm. Power is out. Watching the wind and rain against my windows.

[BLI snowman]

This afternoon's gale-level action down here may end up being the peak winds of this whole episode.

[seattleweatherguy]

Down there it will hit mid afternoon.

how bad? my folks may be there passing Portland around 12ish.

[FroYoBro]

This afternoon's gale-level action down here may end up being the peak winds of this whole episode.

 

It has been pretty breezy, but I still think we will see higher gusts tomorrow afternoon/evening. 

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like things may turn fairly "nice" later next week.

[snow_wizard]

how bad? my folks may be there passing Portland around 12ish.

 

Probably nothing that will cause any major problems.

[snow_wizard]

Starting to look like things may turn fairly "nice" later next week.

 

Looks pretty ridgy for a few days.  Major fog threat with all of the recent rain though.

[MossMan]

The 18z looks kind of wimpy with the storm. Not as strong and it tracks more to the NW than the 12z. Hard to believe it would be weaker and track less favorably for wind.

So a non event tomorrow now... too bad.

[Deweydog]

Looks pretty ridgy for a few days. Major fog threat with all of the recent rain though.

Salem may not get out of the 30's.

[MossMan]

https://www.facebook.com/nathaniellugg/videos/550182961859567/

Funny thing is I can see people freaking out like this for real! Just wait until we have our first big snowstorm in 4yrs!

[stuffradio]

Whistler getting hammered with snow.

 

https://www.whistler.com/webcams/