November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

00z GFS has a very similar look compared to the Euro control run Bud posted, but lacking the cold air...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

 

Low part @ mby!  What's more rare (or stupid) a LP being modeled that intense without a cold connection, or a low that strong where's it's shown? LOL @ models sometimes. The Dec '87 gravity wave bliz only bombed to 979mb briefly before occluding over Lwr. Michigan and that had stout cold to work with. What are these models smoking when they show these ridiculously unreal solutions?   That portrayal just makes zero sense on so many levels. 

[gosaints]

Things are looking less and less exciting

[jaster220]

After months of just mild and more mild, it was quite surprising to see snow OTG along the freeway yesterday evening. Sun had done it's deed on the north side, but the south side especially where there was wooded areas was pretty much coated with a couple inches, and even some plastered to tree trunks told of the wind driven squalls that hit Saturday. Surprised me with KRMY hitting 39º with sunshine and such warmth left in the ground. Stepping out to day 4 of snow on my deck and 19º F this morning. If it stays cool, you could say this sudden chill down around here qualifies as a flip!  

[GDR]

Things are looking less and less exciting

I hear ya as long as the trends don't keep going in the wrong direction

[Niko]

My temp dipped into the teens last night. (19F) It was a darn cold one.

[Tom]

The coolest it's been out here is about in the mid 40's, except for when I drove through CO when it was in the upper 20's at night.  It's going to be a shock to my system when I get back.  Can't wait for the change.  I've been experiencing summer weather since mid February when I got here to AZ last Winter.  I'm ready for Winter!

[Thunder98]

The coolest it's been out here is about in the mid 40's, except for when I drove through CO when it was in the upper 20's at night.  It's going to be a shock to my system when I get back.  Can't wait for the change.  I've been experiencing summer weather since mid February when I got here to AZ last Winter.  I'm ready for Winter!

 

You been in AZ since February?

[Tom]

You been in AZ since February?

No, I left Chicago in mid Feb and stayed till mid May and then was in Chicago for the whole summer.  I left Chicago Oct 31st and drove here for a few weeks with the family and will stay through Thanksgiving.  I feel like I've been in summer mode since mid Feb because when I got here temps were near 80, even 90F in late Feb!

[westMJim]

.  Last night’s low of 21 at the airport was the coldest of this season so far. Here at my house I had a low of 20.2° at my main sensor and a very cold low of 15.3° at my colder location in the yard (I used to have 3 sensor locations but now I am down to just the two) I have a location in the yard that is much colder (or one that is warmer whatever way you want to look at it) On clear, calm summer nights you can feel the difference. Also on note today will either be a clear or partly cloudy day. After the cold and snow we just had GRR is now at 8 clear days 9 partly cloudy day and only 4 cloudy days. So this November has and will end up much sunnier than average here in west Michigan.

[GDR]

38° with heavy rain gusty winds

[gosaints]

Signs of a top notch last weekend of november showing up...

[jaster220]

HPC here? (Idk tbh)

 

 

 

GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM
PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY FLAT MEAN FLOW TOWARD A SLOWER MOVING
AND AMPLIFIED REGIME WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
WHILE MEAN RIDGES BUILD OVER THE ERN PAC AND WRN ATLC. WITHIN
THIS AGREEABLE EVOLUTION FROM THE MEAN PERSPECTIVE THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES FOR INDIVIDUAL BUNDLES OF ENERGY/PSBL
INTERACTION IN THE DEVELOPING MEAN TROUGH... AFFECTING THE FCST
FOR WHAT COULD BE A BROAD AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

[jaster220]

Signs of a top notch last weekend of november showing up...

Things are looking less and less exciting

 

   Dude, so which is it? Pencil me confused by your one line blurbs 

[Niko]

    Dude, so which is it? Pencil me confused by your one line blurbs 

:lol:

[NEJeremy]

   Dude, so which is it? Pencil me confused by your one line blurbs 

Pretty easy to understand to me. He's saying the weather is going to be nice this weekend where he is at and that things are looking less likely for possible big snowfall next week.

[gabel23]

I know it's accuweather but......I would love to see this jet stream pattern to start off December that's for sure! 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/december-may-kick-off-with-snow-severe-weather-storms-ramp-up-across-us/61768335

[gosaints]

Dude, so which is it? Pencil me confused by your one line blurbs

Saturday and sunday look beautiful by late November standards..

 

Next weeks storm looking like rain for most at the moment. Not much of a cold air connection..

[GDR]

Saturday and sunday look beautiful by late November standards..

 

Next weeks storm looking like rain for most at the moment. Not much of a cold air connection..

. I hear ya almost 60 here on Saturday and as of right now the system next week looks like it took a crap on us.

[OKwx2k4]

How do you cut the cold off like that and stick a ridge under a ridge? Weird modeling right now for sure. That's just not how NAO blocks work.

[bud2380]

The weekend storm looks to bring mild air and rain to most of us.  Perhaps parts of the Dakota's or MN could get some snow, but even out there some models are suggesting mostly rain.  After that the CMC is the only model left showing a follow up storm on Dec 1.  We'll see if any of the models cave to the Canadian, but I have my sincere doubts on that. 

[jaster220]

Had 31º on my car thermo this morning but with the ground unfrozen didn't find the freeway getting any ice. Meanwhile, again the snow's just a couple counties north. Looks like we'll be waiting a couple more weeks before we have true cold air to play with. That's ok I want to get my Christmas lights outside before any serious snows show up. 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.54" of rain from this system, which puts my November total at 1.49".

[Tom]

Had 31º on my car thermo this morning but with the ground unfrozen didn't find the freeway getting any ice. Meanwhile, again the snow's just a couple counties north. Looks like we'll be waiting a couple more weeks before we have true cold air to play with. That's ok I want to get my Christmas lights outside before any serious snows show up. 

 

20161123 NWS 4pm wx.PNG

I've always fantasized of having so much snow OTG that my Christmas figurines would be covered over by so much snow you can't see them.  Would love to see multiple storms that pile up the snow on an already established snow cover without having it melt away.  Similar to what the peeps in Wisco experienced during the winter of 2007-2008. Hopefully this would be the year!

[NEJeremy]

The weekend storm looks to bring mild air and rain to most of us.  Perhaps parts of the Dakota's or MN could get some snow, but even out there some models are suggesting mostly rain.  After that the CMC is the only model left showing a follow up storm on Dec 1.  We'll see if any of the models cave to the Canadian, but I have my sincere doubts on that. 

It's funny how many times the storm train that shows up on models for multiple runs never seems to quite work out. This storm on Sunday/Monday was initially just supposed to be a weak wave followed by the big storm mid week and then another one after that the first weekend in December. Now that the first storm is showing up so strong and cut off, it's messing everything else up. The GFS and the Euro have nothing the rest of next week with the GFS showing something the following Sunday= 11 days away. 

[GDR]

It's a pattern were all used to. This feels like déjà vu

[westMJim]

Looks like November in Michigan now. Today so far IMBY I had some light freezing rain earlier today when the temperature was just 32° no ice on the grass but did have a thin coating on the trees, several steel poles and the chain link fence. Temperature is now up to 34° with just a cold light rain.

[jaster220]

At this latitude and location (Marshall) I define a "winter day" as any day with at least a "T" of snow OTG and/or #plow, #shovel piles. Snow cover comes and goes down here in S Mich, unlike my place in the Northland forest. By that definition, we just had (4) winter days and high temps running as much as -14ºF below avg. I don't understand how this happened when everybody was saying an endless torch was in store and it wasn't possible 'cuz Canada was so snowless and it was early and it was such an amazingly long warm season and..and..???        Back to your normally scheduled autumn and waiting on real winter to show up, but hey, it was a nice "taste of winter" and hopefully a sign of good things to come. 

[jaster220]

I've always fantasized of having so much snow OTG that my Christmas figurines would be covered over by so much snow you can't see them.  Would love to see multiple storms that pile up the snow on an already established snow cover without having it melt away.  Similar to what the peeps in Wisco experienced during the winter of 2007-2008. Hopefully this would be the year!

 

Haha, yeah, I love that idea too. IF I'd had figurines at my place up north, the 40" OTG mby enjoyed at Christmas in '95 would've been exactly that!  Now, I never dreamed or hoped for it down-state in Marshall but Jan 6th 2014 with ~ 23" depth proved it possible!  Dec 2000 certainly would've been similar and maybe we'll get something like that next month. Here's to hoping your (figurines) vanish! 

[gosaints]

 

At this latitude and location (Marshall) I define a "winter day" as any day with at least a "T" of snow OTG and/or #plow, #shovel piles. Snow cover comes and goes down here in S Mich, unlike my place in the Northland forest. By that definition, we just had (4) winter days and high temps running as much as -14ºF below avg. I don't understand how this happened when everybody was saying an endless torch was in store and it wasn't possible 'cuz Canada was so snowless and it was early and it was such an amazingly long warm season and..and..??? Back to your normally scheduled autumn and waiting on real winter to show up, but hey, it was a nice "taste of winter" and hopefully a sign of good things to come.

 

Not sure anyone said this winter would be an endless torch.... Though the last year has been a torch. Hard to argue that..

[Jaycee]

It's funny how many times the storm train that shows up on models for multiple runs never seems to quite work out. This storm on Sunday/Monday was initially just supposed to be a weak wave followed by the big storm mid week and then another one after that the first weekend in December. Now that the first storm is showing up so strong and cut off, it's messing everything else up. The GFS and the Euro have nothing the rest of next week with the GFS showing something the following Sunday= 11 days away. 

 

I feel like I'm usually the weenie on this forum but I can't force myself to do it this year because of this. Long range models are garbage almost every time it seems. I want to jump on the bandwagon and see everyone get a foot, but it just seems like it never actually comes to fruition when it's 192+ hrs out and just ends up being a downer.

 

It's a different story for a lot of people on here, but as someone living in Nebraska, the situation the past 5 years has been similar. Dry, big storm south, big storm east, occasional snow advisory, repeat. It'll be hard for me to believe this year will be different.

[jaster220]

I feel like I'm usually the weenie on this forum but I can't force myself to do it this year because of this. Long range models are garbage almost every time it seems. I want to jump on the bandwagon and see everyone get a foot, but it just seems like it never actually comes to fruition when it's 192+ hrs out and just ends up being a downer.

 

It's a different story for a lot of people on here, but as someone living in Nebraska, the situation the past 5 years has been similar. Dry, big storm south, big storm east, occasional snow advisory, repeat. It'll be hard for me to believe this year will be different.

 

I thought that big bliz ended up north of you last winter? Nonetheless, totally sympathize with your post. S Mich gets it's fair share of teases, like the one posted by Tony from last Feb showing a 2-footer. Don't even wanna start up about how many times I've been missed in every direction by LES episodes the past 2 winters. Hoping this past Saturday is a sign that won't be the case this winter.

[westMJim]

At this latitude and location (Marshall) I define a "winter day" as any day with at least a "T" of snow OTG and/or #plow, #shovel piles. Snow cover comes and goes down here in S Mich, unlike my place in the Northland forest. By that definition, we just had (4) winter days and high temps running as much as -14ºF below avg. I don't understand how this happened when everybody was saying an endless torch was in store and it wasn't possible 'cuz Canada was so snowless and it was early and it was such an amazingly long warm season and..and..???        Back to your normally scheduled autumn and waiting on real winter to show up, but hey, it was a nice "taste of winter" and hopefully a sign of good things to come. 

I think you are talking about last winter? If so while many locations in our area well below average snow fall wise most locations still got a good amount of snow. Here are some snow fall totals from last winter in Michigan

SEMi

Detroit  35.3” Flint 69.0”

West Michigan

Grand Rapids  61.1” Muskegon 61.8”

Norther lower Michigan

Alpena 88.8”  Houghton Lake 58.4”

Upper Michigan

Sault Ste Marie  92.2” Marquette 160.7”

[jaster220]

I think you are talking about last winter? If so while many locations in our area well below average snow fall wise most locations still got a good amount of snow. Here are some snow fall totals from last winter in Michigan

SEMi

Detroit  35.3” Flint 69.0”

West Michigan

Grand Rapids  61.1” Muskegon 61.8”

Norther lower Michigan

Alpena 88.8”  Houghton Lake 58.4”

Upper Michigan

Sault Ste Marie  92.2” Marquette 160.7”

 

No, I'm referring to most winters across S Mich outside of the LES zones not being able to sustain snowcover. Last year was just worse thanks to El Nino. I'd hazard a guess that only 20% of winters here in Marshall feature extensive days of actual snowcover. Way different where you're at in GR. South and east of I-69 roughly, but it extends further north in the middle of the state where LES rarely adds much. 

 

Not sure what they avg, but it's nice to finally see Alpena got a good snow season - they've been shafted for like a decade it seems. 

[Niko]

Well, saw some light snow and sleet today before transitioning to all rain. Remained in the 30s all day. Very dismal and raw outside.

[Niko]

Haha, yeah, I love that idea too. IF I'd had figurines at my place up north, the 40" OTG mby enjoyed at Christmas in '95 would've been exactly that!  Now, I never dreamed or hoped for it down-state in Marshall but Jan 6th 2014 with ~ 23" depth proved it possible!  Dec 2000 certainly would've been similar and maybe we'll get something like that next month. Here's to hoping your (figurines) vanish! 

We can only hope!

[Niko]

Had 31º on my car thermo this morning but with the ground unfrozen didn't find the freeway getting any ice. Meanwhile, again the snow's just a couple counties north. Looks like we'll be waiting a couple more weeks before we have true cold air to play with. That's ok I want to get my Christmas lights outside before any serious snows show up. 

 

20161123 NWS 4pm wx.PNG

I agree...after I put up my Christmas lights, then, bring all the bitter cold air upon us, along with feet of snow.

[Niko]

Had 31º on my car thermo this morning but with the ground unfrozen didn't find the freeway getting any ice. Meanwhile, again the snow's just a couple counties north. Looks like we'll be waiting a couple more weeks before we have true cold air to play with. That's ok I want to get my Christmas lights outside before any serious snows show up. 

 

20161123 NWS 4pm wx.PNG

There is that snow I was getting before showing nicely on radar.

[Niko]

Do I see 50s for next week??? Indian Summer????No cold air at all expected.

[Thunder98]

Do I see 50s for next week??? Indian Summer????No cold air at all expected.

 

Weird brief warm up early next week and even possible thunderstorms for Eau Claire, WI then its back to the upper 30's again with cloudy weather.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/us/wi/eau-claire/zmw:54701.1.99999

 

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving ya'll!!!  Gobble, Gobble...I hope everyone can enjoy this day with your family/friends and give thanks for all your blessings.  

 

 

 

http://clintonhs.org/readeatlive/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Free-Thanksgiving-Desktop-Wallpaper-1024x679.jpg