November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

NebraskaWX said:

 

"That being said, I again think all of you from Central Iowa on east through Michigan are in for a record breaking year. Yes, there are many factors proving as to why this year won't be like 2008. Yes, I am probably wrong. At this point I'm about as accurate as the DGEX at 240hr. But ever since I've lived here, October is a crucial month in determining our weather pattern for the winter.

 

So in conclusion, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan, strap up, do some dead lifts. Your back is going to need the lower back strength for all the snow you're about to be shoveling."

 

I will say that it's exciting to see this 3rd "pop-up" LP that basically has come together just to my west. This is very much like 2007-08. If we could see this repeating into the winter but with cold like a 08-09 or 13-14 then your prediction will be gold! 

 

 

[Tom]

Back on the road into the Rockies! I love the smell in the air from the rural landscape. Took a peak at the models and the progression is still looking great! Keep up the good work everyone!

 

Edit: The smell of fresh cut hay is what I meant. Reminds me of the younger days as a kid going to Poland and staying at my Grandma's farm.

[jaster220]

Storm rolls thru where?

 

k, guess I presumed all were familiar with the Bering Sea Rule and it's correlation down-stream within the CONUS. And I don't recall the exact lag-time either, but this map (look closely and you will see Alaska region under-layed beneath the lower 48) is the supposed alignment/location relationship for the positioning of the two systems:

 

 

 

Comparing the two maps, it looks like there'd be a big storm centered over perhaps Chicago? (or a bit southwest of there - hard to say exactly due to their being 2 centers of LP)

 

 

[james1976]

A little ways out and too warm,, but it is interesting with cold air coming graphic.aspx.png

That would be fabulous if we can get cold air in place. Things are lookibg interesting toward mid month atleast. And now we are getting closer to that timeframe so models should start getting a better handle on things.

[jaster220]

That would be fabulous if we can get cold air in place. Things are lookibg interesting toward mid month atleast. And now we are getting closer to that timeframe so models should start getting a better handle on things.

 

They can't get much more dull, so the only way is up   We so need a strong system to track, even if it's Octo-bomb-ish or Nov 17th 2013 and void of winter action. November's one of the best months stat-wise to get something, so I'm hopeful something gives.

[Niko]

Another warm day. Temps in the 60s and a tad humid. Is this November or what? Thunderboomers are possible later today ahead of a coldfront.

[Niko]

2-3 days, we plan on stopping somewhere outside of Denver, then head towards the mountains thru Aspen, Grand Junction and then south on hwy 550 towards Durango, CO. Never took this route before, it's supposed to be very scenic. Hope there is some snow on the mountains!

 

If it's nice in CO, might spend another night and then down to NM/AZ the next day.

Sounds neat. I am going to Chicago this weekend for a getaway with my wife. Weather will be gorgeous from Detroit to Chicago all weekend.  

[Niko]

Something has ta give in terms of colder and storminess. I have a feeling, mother nature will slam us hard soon.

[OKwx2k4]

k, guess I presumed all were familiar with the Bering Sea Rule and it's correlation down-stream within the CONUS. And I don't recall the exact lag-time either, but this map (look closely and you will see Alaska region under-layed beneath the lower 48) is the supposed alignment/location relationship for the positioning of the two systems:

 

Bering_Sea_Rule_map.png

 

Comparing the two maps, it looks like there'd be a big storm centered over perhaps Chicago? (or a bit southwest of there - hard to say exactly due to their being 2 centers of LP)

 

20161101 BAMwx using BSR.PNG

Following that storm's track from the atmospheric avenger this morning, that correlates to more of a storm track that is suppressed to my region. I could be wrong but that's the type that gets suppressed to the red River and then cuts due north once it hits the SE ridge. It's one of all of our favorite types. Especially in December or January. I'm anxious to see what happens with it.

[Hawkeye]

A series of small cells moved through the Cedar Rapids area overnight and dropped 0.95" on my yard.  There was some decent lightning/thunder as well.

[jaster220]

A series of small cells moved through the Cedar Rapids area overnight and dropped 0.95" on my yard.  There was some decent lightning/thunder as well.

 

Good to hear. Keep sending these little robust systems my way all winter 

[Niko]

Currently, pouring here. It feels like a summery dowpour. No thunder or lightning for the time being. Temps are very mild, indeed.

[westMJim]

The rain has stopped here.  Here at my house I recorded 0.55” of rain today.  Over at the airport the official reading was 0.62” so far. Its now a warm and kind of humid 60° with a dp of 58.   The high here at my house was 68° vs the official high of 64 at the airport.  Either way a very warm start to the month of November 2016. Grand Rapids now has had only one month in the last 14 months that were below average (April) and in April GRR mean was 46.0 and that was -2.0° and there was 9.4” of snow.

[Tom]

Today was such a great day driving through Denver, Vail, Grand Junction and now checked into Durango, CO. Before we left this morning, the GFS showed some snow shower activity in the mountains and to our surprise, we saw our first snow of the season! I can't post all the pics off my phone so I will share them tomorrow. It snowed a couple inches last night and the scene was picturess!

 

The money shots I got were when we drove on Millon Dollar Highway!

[james1976]

Today was such a great day driving through Denver, Vail, Grand Junction and now checked into Durango, CO. Before we left this morning, the GFS showed some snow shower activity in the mountains and to our surprise, we saw our first snow of the season! I can't post all the pics off my phone so I will share them tomorrow. It snowed a couple inches last night and the scene was picturess!

 

The money shots I got were when we drove on Millon Dollar Highway!

Jealous!!!

[james1976]

Meanwhile......18z GFS with a never ending torch. Cold is later and later and more northeast.

[james1976]

And 0z GFS with a full on blow torch until like hr 372. Lol

[OKwx2k4]

Today was such a great day driving through Denver, Vail, Grand Junction and now checked into Durango, CO. Before we left this morning, the GFS showed some snow shower activity in the mountains and to our surprise, we saw our first snow of the season! I can't post all the pics off my phone so I will share them tomorrow. It snowed a couple inches last night and the scene was picturess!

 

The money shots I got were when we drove on Millon Dollar Highway!

Congrats on seeing some snow! Also, congrats to your Chicago Cubs on ending the greatest championship drought in history! I bet Chi-town was one happening place! Awesome stuff!

[Grizzcoat]

From Paul Pastelok on AccuWeather.

 

 

 

Key Points Nov. 13-17:

1. There can be a few northern branch systems that will lead to cold shots following and even a little bit of snow. The southern branch of the jet is pushed south.

2. Still waiting to see what a typhoon will do between Nov. 11 and 12. If there is a re-curving typhoon, then the cold and stormy weather later in the 11- to 15-day period will be enhanced, deeper troughs and heavier precipitation.

3. Still looking at an impressive upper pattern later in the 11- to 15-day period. The upper ridge axis should be near the West coast and with the upper trough axis from the Great Lakes south to the central Gulf Coast states. Multiple northern branch systems will drop into the East carving this upper trough.

[jaster220]

Today was such a great day driving through Denver, Vail, Grand Junction and now checked into Durango, CO. Before we left this morning, the GFS showed some snow shower activity in the mountains and to our surprise, we saw our first snow of the season! I can't post all the pics off my phone so I will share them tomorrow. It snowed a couple inches last night and the scene was picturess!

 

The money shots I got were when we drove on Millon Dollar Highway!

 

Oh, those construction barrels!!!    Ruining such a naturally beautiful view!  Still spectacular though even with them. Love the mountain west. Enjoy, but get back to posting asap please.

 

And, yes, a huge congrats! on your Cubs taking it down to the wire and pushing it over! Awesome, awesome baseball - legendary times!   

[jaster220]

And 0z GFS with a full on blow torch until like hr 372. Lol

 

We may talking about winter more than seeing any, eh? Maybe the analog of '98-99 is better than '83-84. It's been mentioned that in '83 the Nina peaked really early and then was waining. 

[Niko]

Beautiful crisp and sunny day today, although, a little nippy. Currently at 44F.

[Niko]

Today was such a great day driving through Denver, Vail, Grand Junction and now checked into Durango, CO. Before we left this morning, the GFS showed some snow shower activity in the mountains and to our surprise, we saw our first snow of the season! I can't post all the pics off my phone so I will share them tomorrow. It snowed a couple inches last night and the scene was picturess!

 

The money shots I got were when we drove on Millon Dollar Highway!

Is that a dusting of snow on the lower left of the pic? It looks like it.

[westMJim]

Here is the October wrap up from the GRR NWS

http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20161102b

[Tom]

Congrats on seeing some snow! Also, congrats to your Chicago Cubs on ending the greatest championship drought in history! I bet Chi-town was one happening place! Awesome stuff!

My friend sent me a vid of cars honking their horns and ppl going crazy in the streets of Wrigleyville! They are prob still partying. I certainly won't forget this team and their accomplishments. What a journey!

[Tom]

Is that a dusting of snow on the lower left of the pic? It looks like it.

More like a couple inches. The first snow always seems to look meek since the dead grass wasn't even covered. Once I got to Million Dollar hwy, I was up in 10,000 ft elevation and I saw my first fat snow flurries. I was up in the clouds!

[Tom]

Was able to load this mornings sunrise in Durango!

 

Wow, JMA Weeklies look impressive Week 3-4! Winter is a coming folks!

[gosaints]

Top notch stuff into.fantasy land

[Niko]

@Tom, Great sunrise! Looks like a cold November morning.

[Tom]

@Tom, Great sunrise! Looks like a cold November morning.

Sure was a cold morning! First freezing temps in the upper 20's for me...

[Niko]

I just checked Moscow's forecast and it sure does look chilly. Currently snowing there and 32F.

 

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=RSXX0063

 

Come 'on Moscow, let us have some of that cold air soon.

[Niko]

Right now, if a strong wind gust develops, all of the leaves on the trees will get blown away in a second. Although, as nice as it looks with all of those different colors, I do want the trees to go bare, especially as we approach mid-November.

[jaster220]

I just checked Moscow's forecast and it sure does look chilly. Currently snowing there and 32F.

 

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=RSXX0063

 

Come 'on Moscow, let us have some of that cold air soon.

 

And Moscow actually averages warmer than Detroit annually believe it or not. Those temps could be here right now!

 

Actually, they were once. Nov 2-3 1966 snowstorm totals:

 

 

 

Double digits in Marshall - in the first days of Nov! #itcanhappen 

[Niko]

And Moscow actually averages warmer than Detroit annually believe it or not. Those temps could be here right now!

 

Actually, they were once. Nov 2-3 1966 snowstorm totals:

 

Nov 1966 Snowstorm totals.png

 

Double digits in Marshall - in the first days of Nov! #itcanhappen 

Of course, anything is possible. Nice snowstorm there in SEMI. Wonder how that winter turned out though. November snowstorms usually don't account good for an up-coming winter in my books, but who knows, sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. I'd lean towards the latter.

[jaster220]

Of course, anything is possible. Nice snowstorm there in SEMI. Wonder how that winter turned out though. November snowstorms usually don't account good for an up-coming winter in my books, but who knows, sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. I'd lean towards the latter.

 

Most times you'd be correct. Not sure how Detroit proper made out, but overall '66-67 is one of the best winters across SMI and included a Mega-Dog 20-33" storm in January that still ranks as the biggest ever for many locales.

[westMJim]

And Moscow actually averages warmer than Detroit annually believe it or not. Those temps could be here right now!

 

Actually, they were once. Nov 2-3 1966 snowstorm totals:

 

Nov 1966 Snowstorm totals.png

 

Double digits in Marshall - in the first days of Nov! #itcanhappen 

First off average weather in Detroit in November

https://weatherspark.com/averages/31987/11/Detroit-Michigan-United-States

And Moscow in November  

https://weatherspark.com/averages/33888/11/Moscow-Moskovskaya-oblast-Russian-Federation

Sorry Moscow is not warmer then Detroit

Now for the winter of 1966/67

Snow fall Grand Rapids    91.8”

Lansing                                81.4”

Detroit                                 50.6”

Flint                                      78.6”

For the most part the winter of 66/67 was a snowy winter in parts of lower Michigan more so on the west side of the state and there was one very big snow storm on January 26, 1967.                            

[jaster220]

First off average weather in Detroit in November

https://weatherspark.com/averages/31987/11/Detroit-Michigan-United-States

And Moscow in November  

https://weatherspark.com/averages/33888/11/Moscow-Moskovskaya-oblast-Russian-Federation

 

Sorry Moscow is not warmer then Detroit

Now for the winter of 1966/67

Snow fall Grand Rapids    91.8”

Lansing                                81.4”

Detroit                                 50.6”

Flint                                      78.6”

For the most part the winter of 66/67 was a snowy winter in parts of lower Michigan more so on the west side of the state and there was one very big snow storm on January 26, 1967.                            

 

You are correct, I got that bassackwards, didn't I?    (nice stat grab btw)

 

All those cities listed are a positive departure for snowfall, even Detroit. Not sure which reflects the greatest departure against normal though. 

[james1976]

Thanksgiving is only 3 weeks away. I wonder if these 60s will make it to then.

[westMJim]

At least for today the sun spot count is zero (it was one small one yesterday)

 

http://spaceweather.com/

[Thunder98]

Thanksgiving is only 3 weeks away. I wonder if these 60s will make it to then.

Or maybe 20's and 30's by Thanksgiving?