November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

It's been an exhausting, yet enjoyable trip through scenic Colorado.  We finally made it to Fountain Hills, AZ about a couple hours ago.  Where do I start?  Well, let me begin by showing you a few pics of the overnight snowfall just outside of Vail, CO Wednesday morning.  BTW, the storm that is targeting the desert SW right now, will dump more snow fall right in the same place I drove through.  Today's travel took me through some heavy rainfall in NM and AZ's mountainous regions.

 

Here are some pics from Vail and near the resort...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Lastly, once we made the turn south from Grand Junction, CO and headed down the highway towards Hwy 550 (aka Million Dollar Highway), there was a heavy thunderstorm way in the distance.  I could see the dark storm cloud from afar and on one side of the mountain it was raining, however, on the other side where the elevation was higher it was pouring snow!  I tried to capture the snow from a distance while driving (I wouldn't recommend it) as it was very cool to see it both rain and snow from the same storm!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once we climbed up some very steep roadways near Ouray, CO...I'm not kidding, my heart was pounding and my palms were sweating...the roads were wet from the melthed snow/rain mix and you can literally see the cliff on the side of the road where it went straight down 100's of feet.  If you slide off, your toast.  We got to around 9,000 - 10,000 ft elevation and it began snowing!  You could see in some of the pictures the milky white which is the snow falling from a distance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

You are correct, I got that bassackwards, didn't I?    (nice stat grab btw)

 

All those cities listed are a positive departure for snowfall, even Detroit. Not sure which reflects the greatest departure against normal though. 

Jaster, come on dude....you have to give me correct info, not false. Shame on you.

[Niko]

Lastly, once we made the turn south from Grand Junction, CO and headed down the highway towards Hwy 550 (aka Million Dollar Highway), there was a heavy thunderstorm way in the distance.  I could see the dark storm cloud from afar and on one side of the mountain it was raining, however, on the other side where the elevation was higher it was pouring snow!  I tried to capture the snow from a distance while driving (I wouldn't recommend it) as it was very cool to see it both rain and snow from the same storm!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once we climbed up some very steep roadways near Ouray, CO...I'm not kidding, my heart was pounding and my palms were sweating...the roads were wet from the melthed snow/rain mix and you can literally see the cliff on the side of the road where it went straight down 100's of feet.  If you slide off, your toast.  We got to around 9,000 - 10,000 ft elevation and it began snowing!  You could see in some of the pictures the milky white which is the snow falling from a distance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great pics!

[Niko]

Leaves are now starting to fall off trees. Before you know it, my area will be bare.

[Niko]

@ Tom: those clouds that are really low in and around the mountains look really amazing. Nice shot there.

[Niko]

Models keep delaying the cold I see. They must be saving it for December. Tbh, I rather have full blown arctic air in December January and February, than in November.

[Tom]

@ Tom: those clouds that are really low in and around the mountains look really amazing. Nice shot there.

Thanks. Those pics were taken as we were approaching Silverton, CO near the summit of the mountain range. Temps were just above freezing along the roadway, but just a few hundred feet higher the snow was sticking and I presume below 32F. I love the mountains!

[Niko]

Thanks. Those pics were taken as we were approaching Silverton, CO near the summit of the mountain range. Temps were just above freezing along the roadway, but just a few hundred feet higher the snow was sticking and I presume below 32F. I love the mountains!

Did you encounter any snowsqualls up in the mountains?

[Tom]

[Niko]

They hit about an hour before I drove by. I saw some remnant snow showers. There is something majestic driving through the mountains and seeing it snow. ⛷☃ I could do it everyday!

[westMJim]

It’s clear and 34° here and a lot of frost on the roof tops. But still GRR has not had an official low of 32° or below yet.  Grand Rapids is now on track to be reach the 3 latest date for reaching 32 or colder. Right now the next date to be broken in November 6^th (1940} November 11 (1897) and the record latest first 32 date November 14 (1918)  

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

You know it's going to be a stretch of boring wx when you go on a road trip or out to AZ instead of sitting in Chi-town pulling the latest maps for us! 

 

Some of us aren't so lucky to be able to fly the coop and go on a road adventure whenever things are looking dull in the extended 

 

Love that batch @ Vail btw. Love how in the mountain west, it's either storm or sun, none of these days on end of lake induced clouds like here in MI. Ofc, when those clouds are dropping LES, it's okay 

 

And yeah, those mountain roadways aren't for the faint of heart. I'm allergic to heights, and whoa! drove to Yellowstone and Grand Tetons back in '99 and it's no place for a flat-lander, that's for sure! Next to the GL's though, It's my fave region of America (Alaska's beautiful but almost too remote to wanna live there year around)

 

Now, back to our wx - oh yeah, never ending warmth shall continue til we've all given up on winter 

[jaster220]

It’s clear and 34° here and a lot of frost on the roof tops. But still GRR has not had an official low of 32° or below yet.  Grand Rapids is now on track to be reach the 3 latest date for reaching 32 or colder. Right now the next date to be broken in November 6^th (1940} November 11 (1897) and the record latest first 32 date November 14 (1918)  

 

Heck, go for the record. Everywhere around GR has been sub-freezing. It's just a major fluke that the airport didn't at least get down to 32. Massive stretches of bare trees along I-94 tell me it's been plenty cold well south of your area. GR's prolly getting so big now, it's got a heat island thing going like Detroit. Either that or their temp gage is skewed. It's been noted that KBTL and KYIP (Ypsilanti) are both notoriously off in a warm bias direction. 

[westMJim]

Heck, go for the record. Everywhere around GR has been sub-freezing. It's just a major fluke that the airport didn't at least get down to 32. Massive stretches of bare trees along I-94 tell me it's been plenty cold well south of your area. GR's prolly getting so big now, it's got a heat island thing going like Detroit. Either that or there temp gage is skewed. It's been noted that KBTL and KYIP (Ypsilanti) are both notoriously off in a warm bias direction. 

The coldest it has gotten here at my house is 30° but I have tender plants that are still growing there are still a lot of leaves on the trees and yes the color is still good. As for the heat island that may be true but remember in the "old" days the readings were taken downtown.As for the gauge that I can not tell you one way or the other.

[westMJim]

I will not say it’s going to happen but we sure do stand a chance. With the water temperatures of the Great Lakes being as warm as they now are we stand a good chance that someone somewhere (downwind of course) could see some big time lake effect snows if there is enough cold air and upper level support.  Boy that is sure vague.  The potential is there will it happen we will have to wait and see.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, you ain't kidding, tranquil weather is an understatement!  That's by far as good as it gets in November for Chicago...

 

 

 

 

If it continues through Thanksgiving (don't think it will), you bet I'm staying out here to get a taste of extended summer.  This morning its a bit overcast from the cut-off low spinning in AZ.  We had a lot of beneficial rain yesterday.  A Tornado Warning was prompted near Hollbrook, AZ off of Hwy 40 about 2 hours after we drove through it on the way in!  Cruising through the mountains is so fun to do, it's best when your not the driver so you can soak it all in!

[Tom]

Back in the saddle, SSW evident over Siberia and GEFS continue strat warming at least through the next 10 days.  Trying to get caught up with all the models as I get situated, but this time of year, I look for these signs, esp with one of the highest SAI readings and earliest PV splits on record.  We are in historic times, something I have never seen before.  Models are misbehaving as bad as I've seen them.  I think it's bc there is so much going on in the atmosphere and oceans right now.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

At 30mb, warming blossoming poleward over the Arctic regions....this is what I've been waiting for!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

There is the 30mb spike...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

 

10mb starting to follow suit...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

 

 

 

 

GEFS more enthusiastic with the MJO pulse into Phases 7/8/1...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

The PV will have a hard time re-strengthening if it continues to spin off the pole.  Euro Day 7-10 showing it elongated and having trouble...

 

Day 7...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f168.gif

 

Day 10...strong Siberian HP keep PV at bay off its "home"...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

[gosaints]

In the meantime.  Looks like at least a couple hundred hours of above normal temps.... epic

[Grizzcoat]

Dsm as of 3pm has tied the record of 75F set in 1909 for the 4th. This is getting old,-- last below normal month here was May of 15'. When will it end?

[gabel23]

Dsm as of 3pm has tied the record of 75F set in 1909 for the 4th. This is getting old,-- last below normal month here was May of 15'. When will it end?

I was going through Lincoln, NE daily variables from 1983.......it's uncanny how much that year matches up with this year. For instance, from October 23-November 4th highs for that stretch were in the 60's. There were a few days that hit 70. We will find out whether or not 83-84' is a good analog or not.........major cold and snow struck around thanksgiving that year. We all want that year, Grizzcoat I'm pretty sure you were around for that winter weren't you? 

[gabel23]

Here is a pretty good link for you Nebraska peeps who want to go back and look at the daily variables from the past. 

 

http://snr.unl.edu/lincolnweather/data/daily-data.asp

[OKwx2k4]

I just don't see how, in the longer ranges of modeling, you can nearly flip the entire pattern over the entire northern hemisphere, cook the stratosphere and still not end up with cold in the US. It's just mind boggling. The modeling is suspect to me.

 

Gabel, 1983 is almost a step for step lock on all counts with this year since September. 2010 is second closest in my opinion with 1978 and 2013 hanging around for looks I guess. Lol

[Grizzcoat]

I was going through Lincoln, NE daily variables from 1983.......it's uncanny how much that year matches up with this year. For instance, from October 23-November 4th highs for that stretch were in the 60's. There were a few days that hit 70. We will find out whether or not 83-84' is a good analog or not.........major cold and snow struck around thanksgiving that year. We all want that year, Grizzcoat I'm pretty sure you were around for that winter weren't you? 

 Yeah I was around in Dec  83' (10 yr old in suburban Twin Cites) -- it the was the coldest DEC ever there with a avg temp of 3.7F and also coldest ever in DSM (where I now hang my hat) at 9.8F.

[Tom]

CPC sorta agreeing with the JMA Week 3-4...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

[westMJim]

Today will be the latest sun rise of 2016. And sitting here this morning with the clear skies I have to say this is the best fall color I have ever seen this late in the fall.  And while some trees are bare there are still many trees that a lot of leaves on them. There are several trees on my daily walk that do not really change color in the fall but just drop their leaves when it gets cold enough will those trees still are mostly green (with some yellow and brown tossed in) there are many elm and oak trees in the woods here and both have a lot of leaves still on them while the maples are split but the maples have great color as of yet. Now the ash trees are either dead or do not have leaves on them (note some of the ash trees are half dead) The coldest I have recorded this fall so far has been (and it was for less than one hour) is 30° and the airport GRR as yet gotten to 32° with the coldest there being 33°.

[Tom]

Watching the sunrise over the mountain tops here in the valley of the sun.  As they say, "the early bird catches the worm".  Tonight, Daylight Savings ends and we "fall back" 1 hour.  Enjoy that extra hour of sleep!  I think Cub's nation will take advantage after all the partying yesterday.  Mother Nature blessed the city with fantastic November weather with 100% sunshine and mid 60's temps.

[Tom]

For some time now, the CFSv2 looking interesting Thanksgiving week as heights rise over the NE PAC/AK and storms track into the SW region.  I've seen this advertised before from the model, but let's see if it can hang on to this idea.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110500/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_namer_4.png

 

 

It continues to close out the month...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110500/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_namer_5.png

 

 

 

This would likely be an interesting 4 corners/CO Low set up and bring a wetter pattern where into the Plains states...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110500/cfs-avg_apcpna_us_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110500/cfs-avg_apcpna_us_4.png

 

[Tom]

A taste of Winter next weekend near the lakes.  Likely, the first lake snows of the season.  Our folks in MI may see their first flakes fly!  Pretty potent early season shot of cold coming straight down 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110512/gfs_asnow_ncus_34.png

 

 

Arctic air tapped by jet coming down straight from the north...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110512/gfs_uv250_namer_29.png

[Tom]

Euro seeing what GFS has been onto for a while now...MJO pulse into cold phases...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

[Tom]

Almost like clock work, GEFS starting to show the evolving pattern next weekend that transitions out of the above normal regime.  CFSv2/JMA/EPS are all on board to the "flip" right around the 15th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_42.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

 

 

Thanksgiving week is going to be interesting for a lot of us on here.  The 500mb pattern over N.A. signals an onslaught of the hounds of Winter.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110512/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

Looks stormy...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110512/gfs-ens_mslpaMean_us_11.png

[Tom]

Hemispherically speaking, CFSv2 painting big time Arctic blocking to close out the month...key component in the N PAC, the Aleutian Low develops which should stop the Pacific flow or maritime air into N.A.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110506/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_nhem_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016110506/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_nhem_5.png

[OKwx2k4]

You can't draw that Aleutian low into a better spot on that map. That's literally the perfect spot. Swing that CO low down into TX and then eject it due northeast to the GL region after it reaches east Texas and we can all start winter with a bang at once.

[gabel23]

While we all wait for winter to approach, I just went out and picked more tomatoes. Can somebody tell my plants it's November??? I have been gardening for about 15 years, I have never had this many tomatoes this late!! They still taste and look like it's late summer. 

[OKwx2k4]

While we all wait for winter to approach, I just went out and picked more tomatoes. Can somebody tell my plants it's November??? I have been gardening for about 15 years, I have never had this many tomatoes this late!! They still taste and look like it's late summer.

Wow! Nice tomatoes! Big too! I bet they're delicious.

[Tom]

While we all wait for winter to approach, I just went out and picked more tomatoes. Can somebody tell my plants it's November??? I have been gardening for about 15 years, I have never had this many tomatoes this late!! They still taste and look like it's late summer.

Holy macro! How big of a garden do you have? I bet your neighbors love you. Nothing tastes better than a fresh home grown tomatoe. Take advantage of the weather my friend.

[jaster220]

A taste of Winter next weekend near the lakes.  Likely, the first lake snows of the season.  Our folks in MI may see their first flakes fly!  Pretty potent early season shot of cold coming straight down 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110512/gfs_asnow_ncus_34.png

 

 

Arctic air tapped by jet coming down straight from the north...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110512/gfs_uv250_namer_29.png

 

Could see some flakes flying in Berrien County per that map. Nov 12th, 2013 we had a 17" LES storm at my office. It was hammer time let me tell you! I don't expect that out of this pattern though - LOL - I put sun screen on my face today to cut the never ending grass on Nov 5th! Each time i cut it, I set my blade a notch lower thinking "this will be the final cut"...yeah right.   

 

In contrast to Jim's post about his immediate area in GR, my commute along I-94 already featured noticeable stretches of mostly bare trees Friday. There were still some stretches of nice color too but all the bright red sugar maples are done. It's a vast blanket of auburn as even the hardy oaks that go mostly brown have turned. Some of those even keep their dead leafs all winter so there's never truly a totally bare forest here. My rule of thumb is that shortly after peak, snow is free to come any time, so we're getting close. Trees are even peaking right along the immediate lakeshore north of my office. 

[GDR]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-snow-45.pngLook at all that snow

[gabel23]

Holy macro! How big of a garden do you have? I bet your neighbors love you. Nothing tastes better than a fresh home grown tomatoe. Take advantage of the weather my friend.

I have a pretty decent size garden, I planted 8 tomato plants and as you can see they done real well this year! It was my first summer doing it because my wife and I purchased this house last July. I had to put the garden in myself, I'm thinking the chicken I put in when I tilled last fall helped a lot! I'm enjoying the weather, I'm ready for the white stuff though! I'm thinking the weather changes dramatically at or just after thanksgiving. 

[jaster220]

While we all wait for winter to approach, I just went out and picked more tomatoes. Can somebody tell my plants it's November??? I have been gardening for about 15 years, I have never had this many tomatoes this late!! They still taste and look like it's late summer. 

 

Dude I so want a triple layer tomato sandwich after seeing your pic! nice harvest