November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Dude I so want a triple layer tomato sandwich after seeing your pic! nice harvest

Mmmmm...tomato and bacon sandwiches sound great.

[OKwx2k4]

This is from the WeatherAmerica newsletter tonight. It is written by a met named Larry Cosgrove. He was pretty good last year.

 

"Two things need to be said about rumored impending changes to colder air over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. in the longer term. Yes, the scenario is credible. But no, this is NOT the start of a seasonal pattern for winter that will last into early spring. Enough of the numerical models show pronounced +PNA/-AO/-NAO styled ridging to warrant amplification of the jet stream. As a result, the air mass that forms over northern Canada (some snow cover) will slide into the lower 48 states, mostly to the right of the Continental Dateline. This is not Arctic air, rather a cPk regime that will push the night freeze line well into Dixie. I am expecting a substantial storm to affect the eastern third of the nation, and it is that feature which will be the catalyst for the first meaningful cold snap of the season.

 

But how long will the chill last? No true blocking signatures are found on the extended range forecasts, and the active, still semizonal flow across the Pacific Ocean will at some point transport milder air back into the Great Plains. That process may take a while, and my thinking is that colder profiles may hold over much of the country (especially between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia) between November 17 and December 8. But until I see ironclad evidence of a strong blocking ridge at high latitudes (which analogs seem to suggest will not occur until the week between Christmas and New Year's Day), I must return to the scenario of a warm-up in the middle two/three weeks of December. Yes, I see the burgeoning snowpack over Siberia. But remind yourself that the cold which infiltrates the U.S. is most often born in Canada, not Russia (in which you need a cross-polar flow for transport into North America).

 

Be patient. We should see some interesting conditions this winter from the Great Plains to the East Coast. But it may take reaching the New Year of 2017 before chances for "real winter" escalate in populated areas east of the Interstate 25 corridor."

[jaster220]

Off topic but we so need something (anything!) to light up the board like this..

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'll pass. Flooding for Christmas royally sucks.

[Tom]

Off topic but we so need something (anything!) to light up the board like this..

 

20151227 NWS headlines map.png

Fantasy Land...Thanksgiving week...has a monster OV cutter dumping 12-18" of snow near you!  

 

InstantWxMaps no longer allows you to save their maps.  Does anyone else know a good site that you can use a map through 384hr??

[Tom]

Can you say...blow torch???  Impressive warmth east of the Rockies...will there be just as an impressive flip 2nd half of November???

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

00z Euro showing an interesting storm system by Day 8-10 and following a typical La Nina storm track.  Energy rides up and over a west coast ridge along the northern Rockies and digs SE into the Plains and then tries cutting up towards the Lakes.  There is some supports on the 00z EPS.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110600/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110600/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

[Niko]

Big Time Arctic Chill coming by next weekend. There is a chance that my highs do not get outta the 30's. Most on this forum will feel this chill.

 

This from NOAA:

 

The medium range model
suite remain steadfast in showing a complete upper level pattern
change the end of the work week with long wave trough amplification
across ern Canada and the northeast US. This will result in an
influx of arctic air (the coldest of this mild fall season) by next
weekend.

 

@Jaster: I passed by your town Marshall yesterday as we were returning from Chicago and I yelled out my window......"Hey Yo Jaster, Wazzzzz Upppp". My wife thought I was nuts, but then, I explained to her that you were one of the guys on the weather forum.

[Niko]

Off topic but we so need something (anything!) to light up the board like this..

 

20151227 NWS headlines map.png

Looks like I am in the WSW zone. I'll take that!

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous weather today. Temps will soar into the 60s. Pretty sweet for this time of the year.

[Niko]

Whoever was in Chicago this weekend, saw the craziness that was going on. I was there Friday and most of Saturday and I gotta tell ya, there were a lot of celebrations going on. I arrived there right before the parade was finished and we encountered some road closures in the city. People walking around in Cubs shirts, holding flags and etc. I told my wife, no matter how crazy it looks, we are stopping for Pizza, no matter what. It was simply chaos. We left the city and hit the suburbs for our hotel. It was in Arlington Heights, IL, very nice area. About 40 minutes away from the city.

 

BTW: is anyone familiar with this slide that goes from one floor to another in a single building. Its a clear slide and you are feet high up in the air. I was not sure if it was in Chicago or not. I tried to google it, but it did not provide me with any info on it.

[Tom]

Whoever was in Chicago this weekend, saw the craziness that was going on. I was there Friday and most of Saturday and I gotta tell ya, there were a lot of celebrations going on. I arrived there right before the parade was finished and we encountered some road closures in the city. People walking around in Cubs shirts, holding flags and etc. I told my wife, no matter how crazy it looks, we are stopping for Pizza, no matter what. It was simply chaos. We left the city and hit the suburbs for our hotel. It was in Arlington Heights, IL, very nice area. About 40 minutes away from the city.

 

BTW: is anyone familiar with this slide that goes from one floor to another in a single building. Its a clear slide and you are feet high up in the air. I was not sure if it was in Chicago or not. I tried to google it, but it did not provide me with any info on it.

You were right by my house!  I live 2 towns down from Arlington Heights.  It's a nice, cozy, growing town.  Were you in downtown Arlington Heights?

 

I think the building your speaking of is the Willis Tower (previously known as the Sear's Tower)...

 

http://theskydeck.com/

[Niko]

You were right by my house!  I live 2 towns down from Arlington Heights.  It's a nice, cozy, growing town.  Were you in downtown Arlington Heights?

 

I think the building your speaking of is the Willis Tower (previously known as the Sear's Tower)...

 

http://theskydeck.com/

No, we were in the suburbs area of Arlington, Heights.  Next time, I will stop for coffee!

 

Its a different building, not the Sears Tower. It has a slide that you slide from one floor to another. It looks real scary. Cannot remember exactly where I saw that.

 

I just googled the slide. Its in L.A. Its called the "Skyslide".

 

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=yfp-t&p=the+skyslide+utube#id=18&vid=3a21d8c498631f375e6659c6f0f81389&action=view

[Tom]

Praising the Euro in the Tropics always not a good idea...pretty bad forecast from 2 days ago regarding MJO...no more amplification in warm phases 5/6...GEFS had the right idea all along...

 

2 days ago...

 

 

Todays run...much strong amplitude into Phase 8/1 which GEFS had going days ago...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

Reminder of what we can expect using the MJO...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

[Tom]

12z GGEM showing a digging trough near the AR/OK region by Day 10...similar to the 00z Euro from last night...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016110612/gem_z500_vort_us_41.png

 

 

Meanwhile, GEFS starting to like the idea of its counterpart, CFSv2, and developing a storm track into So Cal/Rockies/4 corners just in time for Thanksgiving week.

[james1976]

Glad models come in an hour earlier now!

[Tom]

12z EPS still on board with an interesting look Day 8-10, showing a digging negatively tilted trough somewhere near the OV/Lakes....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016110612/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016110612/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

[WBadgersW]

New record high of 70° today. Man, this cold air better come soon.

[OKwx2k4]

Really liking where the models are heading towards the ends of their runs as of the last day or 2.

[westMJim]

Another great November day here in Grand Rapids.  We had a sunny (after the fog burned off) warm,69° officially,70° here at my house. (average high is 52°) It’s not very often we get warm sunny days in west Michigan in November.  I also cut the lawn (and mulched the leaves) I hope it is the last time I have to cut the grass this year. And in the last two days many more trees have now dropped their leaves but there are still a good amount of leaves on some of the trees still. In my yard I have two trees that have most of the leaves still on them and one of those trees will drop all of its leaves once we get a hard freeze

[james1976]

0z GFS bringing winter in with a vengeance after the 15th. Trying to spin up a blizzard for the upper midwest around 19th. Wish it wasnt fantasy land!

[OKwx2k4]

Last 12z and this 0z gfs run are really something. It would be crazy if I had my first freeze and first 1" of snow the same day. I'm ready to party like it's 1983 though. That year and 2010 are still looking like the best blend going forward.

 

 

[bud2380]

Okwx it looks like the euro is showing a strong storm over the lakes in the hour 240 time frame. I'm curious what that shows for snow potential. If you get a chance to post that map it would be appreciated. Looks like that pattern shift is coming here sometime in the next 10-14 days. It's been pretty much the best fall I can remember in terms of good warm weather. Kindve sad to see it go

[Tom]

@ Okwx, you guys had another strong earthquake yesterday.  It seems like this year they have been very frequent.  Did you feel the earth shake?  Curious.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/earthquake-causes-damage-central-oklahoma-n678811

[Tom]

The models are trending nicely in the extended.  JMA/CFSv2 saw the tongue of colder waters forming this month and extending all the way from east Siberia to just off the OR/CA coastline.  GEFS are showing the blocking developing over the top and jet targeting the west/southwest U.S. coast.  Th pocket of warm water in the GOA is going to be our savior.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

This week, the changes in the Pacific begin to happen.  Between Tuesday-Thursday, we see the amplification of the western CA ridge...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110700/gfs_uv250_namer_6.png

 

 

By Day 9, jet starts cutting under neath the rising heights in Canada/AK..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110700/gfs_uv250_namer_37.png

 

 

Eventually, a mature Split Flow evolves in the NE PAC going forward and we are in Winter mode!  Now that is a sweet SW Flow coming out of the 4 corners!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110700/gfs_uv250_namer_50.png

[Tom]

Take away the +PNA, keep the blocking, and the pattern to close out the month would be favorable for a SW Flow and weak SE Ridge.  I'm game!  FWIW, the CFSv2 has been highlighting this potential.  In the extended, Week 3 & 4 individual runs are showing extensive storms targeting the central CONUS.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[jaster220]

http://tswails.com/uploads/2016/11/1-snow-45.pngLook at all that snow

 

It's been there for a while now. Sometimes even better for mby. Remains to be seen if it has a real clue or not. 

 

I'll pass. Flooding for Christmas royally sucks.

Looks like I am in the WSW zone. I'll take that!

 

Disclaimer (that I guess I have to post for y'all):

 

"Above image represents active wx and is not meant to endorse or deny anybody's joy or disappointment at the net results of map depiction" (sheesh) 

[Tom]

Last post of the morning before I need to start getting ready for my hike on Camelback Mountain.  Upper air pattern looking very favorable to start tapping into the Siberian air across the Pole.  Due to SSW over Siberia, both GFS/Euro indicating a conducive pattern to funnel the Arctic Express into N.A.

 

Day 7...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f168.gif

 

Day 10...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

Major 10mb warming starting to pop over Eurasia...SAI working it's magic...also, something catches my interest and notice the warming near the SE coast of N.A. Developing SE as we move into December???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Big Time Arctic Chill coming by next weekend. There is a chance that my highs do not get outta the 30's. Most on this forum will feel this chill.

 

This from NOAA:

 

The medium range model

suite remain steadfast in showing a complete upper level pattern

change the end of the work week with long wave trough amplification

across ern Canada and the northeast US. This will result in an

influx of arctic air (the coldest of this mild fall season) by next

weekend.

 

@Jaster: I passed by your town Marshall yesterday as we were returning from Chicago and I yelled out my window......"Hey Yo Jaster, Wazzzzz Upppp". My wife thought I was nuts, but then, I explained to her that you were one of the guys on the weather forum.

 

  There'd be zero explaining that to my wife   

 

Thanks for the shout-out, and you should repeat the drive in mid-winter when SWMI has some nice depth. If it's at all a windy winter, the open areas around here make for some spectacular drifts! 

[jaster220]

 

 

Tom said: "Take away the +PNA"

This is from the WeatherAmerica newsletter tonight. It is written by a met named Larry Cosgrove. He was pretty good last year.

 

"Two things need to be said about rumored impending changes to colder air over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. in the longer term. Yes, the scenario is credible. But no, this is NOT the start of a seasonal pattern for winter that will last into early spring. Enough of the numerical models show pronounced +PNA/-AO/-NAO styled ridging to warrant amplification of the jet stream. As a result, the air mass that forms over northern Canada (some snow cover) will slide into the lower 48 states, mostly to the right of the Continental Dateline. This is not Arctic air, rather a cPk regime that will push the night freeze line well into Dixie. I am expecting a substantial storm to affect the eastern third of the nation, and it is that feature which will be the catalyst for the first meaningful cold snap of the season.

 

But how long will the chill last? No true blocking signatures are found on the extended range forecasts, and the active, still semizonal flow across the Pacific Ocean will at some point transport milder air back into the Great Plains. That process may take a while, and my thinking is that colder profiles may hold over much of the country (especially between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia) between November 17 and December 8. But until I see ironclad evidence of a strong blocking ridge at high latitudes (which analogs seem to suggest will not occur until the week between Christmas and New Year's Day), I must return to the scenario of a warm-up in the middle two/three weeks of December. Yes, I see the burgeoning snowpack over Siberia. But remind yourself that the cold which infiltrates the U.S. is most often born in Canada, not Russia (in which you need a cross-polar flow for transport into North America).

 

Be patient. We should see some interesting conditions this winter from the Great Plains to the East Coast. But it may take reaching the New Year of 2017 before chances for "real winter" escalate in populated areas east of the Interstate 25 corridor."

 

K, confused me again here. I thought that a +PNA is our friend and what we need. Still not clear on the 2 states (+/-) I guess? 

[jaster220]

Fantasy Land...Thanksgiving week...has a monster OV cutter dumping 12-18" of snow near you!  

 

InstantWxMaps no longer allows you to save their maps.  Does anyone else know a good site that you can use a map through 384hr??

 

This?:

 

 

 

..and this?:

 

 

 

At this point, prolly = this!:

 

 

 

 

(Still, never say never - if peeps in Nov of '50 could've seen models projecting their storm, it would've gotten the same  )

[james1976]

Gfs really bringing on winter after 15th.....especially by the weekend of the 19th.

[jaster220]

Gfs really bringing on winter after 15th.....especially by the weekend of the 19th.

 

Can't wait for the main show to get going. I wasn't a big fan of last year's pre-turkey day storm 'cuz it was a blip on the screen of endless warmth and I knew with a strong Nino we couldn't expect sustained winter following the storm. 

 

Now, this is a totally different beast on our hands this year, so getting and keeping some winter is in the cards. Best for me in Lwr MI was Nov-Dec '89 in that regard.

 

This is interesting tid-bit on an even older analog flip year. The point being made that Super-Nino's aren't a modern phenom and just because it's been a hot year, doesn't mean a cold winter is "off the table"

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Can't wait for the main show to get going. I wasn't a big fan of last year's pre-turkey day storm 'cuz it was a blip on the screen of endless warmth and I knew with a strong Nino we couldn't expect sustained winter following the storm. 

 

Now, this is a totally different beast on our hands this year, so getting and keeping some winter is in the cards. Best for me in Lwr MI was Nov-Dec '89 in that regard.

 

This is interesting tid-bit on an even older analog flip year. The point being made that Super-Nino's aren't a modern phenom and just because it's been a hot year, doesn't mean a cold winter is "off the table"

 

20161107 1877-78 El Nino.PNG

 

 

20161107 1877-78 El Nino and following winter.PNG

Wow.....look-out!

[Niko]

This?:

 

20161106 GFS Surf hr360 for 21Nov.png

 

..and this?:

 

20161106 GFS Snowfall hr360 for 21Nov.PNG

 

At this point, prolly = this!:

 

20161107 Snow Clownage.png

 

 

(Still, never say never - if peeps in Nov of '50 could've seen models projecting their storm, it would've gotten the same  )

This track buries my area with near 2feet.

[Niko]

This?:

 

20161106 GFS Surf hr360 for 21Nov.png

 

..and this?:

 

20161106 GFS Snowfall hr360 for 21Nov.PNG

 

At this point, prolly = this!:

 

20161107 Snow Clownage.png

 

 

(Still, never say never - if peeps in Nov of '50 could've seen models projecting their storm, it would've gotten the same  )

Agree 120%.

[Niko]

I don't know about you guys, but ,my grass is still looking good and greenish, unlike my neighbors next to me. Heck, I think I have the best looking grass in my whole entire sub ,not to brag of course.

[bud2380]

Latest euro has 850s below zero in Florida by day 10. With a major wound up storm around New York City.

[jaster220]

Latest euro has 850s below zero in Florida by day 10. With a major wound up storm around New York City.

 

Not sure what "latest" means, but this was 0z @ 500mb

 

 

 

I've seen mention that the EAR supports this storm and that there may be a "retrograding component" involved. (cue 1950 comparisons)

[Niko]

Not sure what "latest" means, but this was 0z @ 500mb

 

20161107 Euro 500mb hr240 for 17Nov.PNG

 

I've seen mention that the EAR supports this storm and that there may be a "retrograding component" involved. (cue 1950 comparisons)

I need this low to be a little bit more ENE in movement to be on the cold side.

[james1976]

Latest prolly means todays 12z run i would assume.