November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

 

"I've seen mention that the EAR supports this storm and that there may be a "retrograding component" involved."

 

This is from Sat, but you can see the two storms off the asian coast expected to merge:

 

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

Not a good sign if that is the pattern of the winter.  Would leave Nebraska high and dry with all the big storms going East.

[clintbeed1993]

I really hope that ridge doesn't stay planted in California all winter.  Need it to be further off the coast to get anything in the Plains.

[jaster220]

Not a good sign if that is the pattern of the winter.  Would leave Nebraska high and dry with all the big storms going East.

 

I think you'll be saved by a more favorable -NAO

[jaster220]

For those following the #organicforecasting predictors, this post from accuwx sums up some current trends for about 10 days out from today:

 

 

[bud2380]

Yes latest means the 12z run from today.

[Stormgeek]

Looking to favor MN staying cold and dry. Not liking that look a whole lot...

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, you guys had another strong earthquake yesterday. It seems like this year they have been very frequent. Did you feel the earth shake? Curious.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/earthquake-causes-damage-central-oklahoma-n678811

No. Never felt it. Just saw it run across my screen after it happened.

[OKwx2k4]

Can't wait for the main show to get going. I wasn't a big fan of last year's pre-turkey day storm 'cuz it was a blip on the screen of endless warmth and I knew with a strong Nino we couldn't expect sustained winter following the storm.

 

Now, this is a totally different beast on our hands this year, so getting and keeping some winter is in the cards. Best for me in Lwr MI was Nov-Dec '89 in that regard.

 

This is interesting tid-bit on an even older analog flip year. The point being made that Super-Nino's aren't a modern phenom and just because it's been a hot year, doesn't mean a cold winter is "off the table"

 

20161107 1877-78 El Nino.PNG

 

 

20161107 1877-78 El Nino and following winter.PNG

That's the year I was trying to reference a few months ago in our historical winters conversation but I made it confusing somehow so I just dropped it. I'd take a year like that.

[james1976]

GFS keeps pushing this weekend's cold push further west. Most of IA now in below 0 850s.

[CentralNebWeather]

Had almost 1 inch of rain here in central Nebraska today. Nice and steady soaking in. Was badly needed after very dry October.

[jaster220]

Can you say...blow torch???  Impressive warmth east of the Rockies...will there be just as an impressive flip 2nd half of November???

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

00z Euro showing an interesting storm system by Day 8-10 and following a typical La Nina storm track.  Energy rides up and over a west coast ridge along the northern Rockies and digs SE into the Plains and then tries cutting up towards the Lakes.  There is some supports on the 00z EPS.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110600/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110600/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

 

Now, let's add 24hrs and deduct at least 20mb's and rock!

 

 

PoconoSnow said:

 

Comparing mean and mslp to h5 normalized deviation tells me that although most members are quick speed wise with the northern stream, and have been in past runs, but their still exists the tendency for some of the 50 members of the suite is to really deepen the trough, enough so that it shows up clearly on the normalized dev. That's a pretty conflicting signal, meaning......

 

.... we could see more eps members looking like the deterministic hi res run in future cycles. Generally this goes for other models in different suites too, especially when you have the support of OFM, euro op and partial eps

 

Again, this is not trying to guarantee that so-and-so's backyard's going to get buried. More it's just sniffing for signals that an actual storm MAY OCCUR. Cuz with our snooze-worthy autumn, we must grasp for any possible straws..

[jaster220]

That's the year I was trying to reference a few months ago in our historical winters conversation but I made it confusing somehow so I just dropped it. I'd take a year like that.

 

Speaking of, did you see my post in there yesterday on the Dec '87 bomb? Were there any effects from that for your place?

[Niko]

What a gorgeous, crisp, evening outside. Temp is at 43F under a crystal, clear night. If time permitted me, I would have burn some wood on my firepitt outside along with some wine.

[Niko]

Not sure what "latest" means, but this was 0z @ 500mb

 

20161107 Euro 500mb hr240 for 17Nov.PNG

 

I've seen mention that the EAR supports this storm and that there may be a "retrograding component" involved. (cue 1950 comparisons)

[Niko]

Well, not sure why, but, it seems that the cold that was being advertised for later this week is now not as potent.

[OKwx2k4]

Speaking of, did you see my post in there yesterday on the Dec '87 bomb? Were there any effects from that for your place?

One of the most epic statewide ice storms of the 80s. It tore one of the largest tv towers in the US to the ground. The KTUL (Tulsa) tower was 1909 feet tall and it iced so heavily it demolished it. Then finally coated areas in 2" of snow. I still remember seeing the destroyed and dying trees around as late as 1990 but I never knew why until the 2000 ice storm. I was just 3 in 87 so I don't remember the storm itself. I didn't live here then either. I lived in Moore. Didn't come back out here again until mid-1988. People don't really believe that I have memories from when I was so young but I do. For example, I remember the 18 inch snow of March 1989 as vividly as yesterday. It was horribly destructive high QPF snow. It collapsed all kinds of buildings and barns.

[jaster220]

One of the most epic statewide ice storms of the 80s. It tore one of the largest tv towers in the US to the ground. The KTUL (Tulsa) tower was 1909 feet tall and it iced so heavily it demolished it. Then finally coated areas in 2" of snow. I still remember seeing the destroyed and dying trees around as late as 1990 but I never knew why until the 2000 ice storm. I was just 3 in 87 so I don't remember the storm itself. I didn't live here then either. I lived in Moore. Didn't come back out here again until mid-1988. People don't really believe that I have memories from when I was so young but I do. For example, I remember the 18 inch snow of March 1989 as vividly as yesterday. It was horribly destructive high QPF snow. It collapsed all kinds of buildings and barns.

 

 holy crap, that's one tall tower! (was). Well, this pattern is nothing short of boring. Guess that's what we get after so many good seasons around here. The other shoe must always drop it seems. I have some childhood memories back to about 4 yrs old that I know for certain. I think I have some from earlier, but it's hard to say. My real winter event memories probably don't start until 7 or 8 tbh. 

[james1976]

GFS starting to trend warmer and less stormy in the extended.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids (GRR) still has not had an official reading of 32° or below. But with the current forecasted low in the upper 20’s for Friday night that should end on the 11^th if indeed we do get down into the upper 20’s on Friday night this would be the second latest that it has gotten here before the first freeze. The longest is November 14^th 1918. 

[jaster220]

GFS starting to trend warmer and less stormy in the extended.

 

   Done deal - it's ovva!

[Tom]

If the warmer pattern persists, you betcha I'm staying out here and enjoying 80's and sunshine. Although, I am still skeptical it stays blow torch warm. Tons of ppl out here taking advantage of the above normal wx and might in fact reach a record high in the upper 80's today.

 

I need to find a store out here that sells the "W" Flag and hike Camelback again and take a pic and send it to WGN so Skilling can show it on his show!

[Tom]

Get out and Vote everyone!  The nation is rather quiet weather wise so there are no excuses.  I live in a Blue state, but registered to vote for the first time in my life and feel this is the most critical and pivotal time in our nations history.

 

Both 10mb/30mb temps are above normal for the first time this season...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

 

I still believe, that in due time, due to the depth anomalies in the N PAC, the Aleutian Low will retrograde towards the position where the coldest waters assimilate.  The waters near the Western NAMER coast are starting to warm up.  Give it a couple weeks, and let's see if the trend continues.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif

 

Here is another SST depth anomaly...waters are very warm underneath the surface...

 

[Tom]

Talk about model volatility...???  12z GFS with a powerhouse CO Low by Day 9-10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110812/gfs_mslp_wind_us_40.png

[Tom]

12z GGEM similar, misses the phase but showing the SE ridge that the GFS has been highlighting.  Wonder if the 10mb warming will be a player here .

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016110812/gem_z500_vort_us_40.png

[jaster220]

 

 

Both 10mb/30mb temps are above normal for the first time this season...

 

So, hearing that there's a Strato PV and a Tropo PV and we best not confuse the two because Tropo will be the one that really controls whos' got the cold temps, and the Strato nasso much. Anybody more knowledgeable, feel free to confirm/comment on this. 

 

Meanwhile, not sure if this 500mb qualifies as either, but I liked how DT used it to illustrate the (sad) situation:

 

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS agreeing Day 9-10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_41.png

 

GEFS 48hr trend also looking better...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_21.png

[james1976]

GFS has been showing this storm on and off for a few days now. Really hope it happens. We need something!

[james1976]

Would it make sense for it to track north like that cuz its early in season or is it possible to dig? Wouldnt a phase keep it north?

[Tom]

MJO Phases still looking favorable...either you believe the teleconnections or each model run, teleconnections have been consistent, model runs not so much.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

[Tom]

Would it make sense for it to track north like that cuz its early in season or is it possible to dig? Wouldnt a phase keep it north?

Climo speaking, it would be favor a NW track...way early in the season.  Build that snow pack up north and it bodes well as we move along.  Need to fill in the Canadian Prairies.

[Tom]

I like the rising heights in NW NAMER by Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_mslpa_namer_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_mslpa_namer_50.png

[Tom]

It's nice to see a snow cover building in Alaska which has been very slow.  Once that Alaskan ridge builds, it can tap into that cold air.

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

[gabel23]

Very important next two weeks. This would be the last part of the LRC so hopefully we can have a southwesterly flow that can bring powerhouse storms to everyone on board. We have already seen that part of the LRC will be calm/big ridging out west, so these next two weeks will be vital when it comes to finishing up the LRC cycle. 

[jaster220]

GFS has been showing this storm on and off for a few days now. Really hope it happens. We need something!

 

Very important next two weeks. This would be the last part of the LRC so hopefully we can have a southwesterly flow that can bring powerhouse storms to everyone on board. We have already seen that part of the LRC will be calm/big ridging out west, so these next two weeks will be vital when it comes to finishing up the LRC cycle. 

 

What? You don't want this for the next 5 months?

 

 

[jaster220]

 

Translated from euro-land:

 

Drastic change in the Arctic and subarctic Russian, went from major positive anomalies to negative opposite.

 

The cold weather continues to affect the rest of Russia, Scandinavia and the whole European central band from France to Poland. In recent days in these areas it is the first seasonal snowfall in the plains have occurred.

 

The snow has come almost to the gates of Paris, in the German low hill in Poland, and so abundant in the Baltic States and in major Russian cities, including St. Petersburg and Moscow.

 

Next week the cold anomalies should also incorporate much of Italy.

 

In the rest of the northern hemisphere continued to be cold in much of central and northern Asia, hot hand in almost all of North America. 

 

Yeah, we've got the hot hand alright!  (warning Brits to brace for coldest winter in 35 yrs) 

[jaster220]

Get out and Vote everyone!  The nation is rather quiet weather wise so there are no excuses.  I live in a Blue state, but registered to vote for the first time in my life and feel this is the most critical and pivotal time in our nations history.

 

Both 10mb/30mb temps are above normal for the first time this season...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

 

I still believe, that in due time, due to the depth anomalies in the N PAC, the Aleutian Low will retrograde towards the position where the coldest waters assimilate.  The waters near the Western NAMER coast are starting to warm up.  Give it a couple weeks, and let's see if the trend continues.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif

 

Here is another SST depth anomaly...waters are very warm underneath the surface...

 

 

Just to clarify, that Strato action we've seen does/will take up to a month to propogate down to our level:

 

 

grace posted:

 

Science is not on your side. I can see why you think this but your thinking is not guided by facts. The Strat PV event just occurred. It does not affect us on the surface of planet earth for min of 2 weeks...to as long as 4 weeks after occurring. THAT'S a fact.

 

It's also a fact that N. AMERICA has been warm for a good while & that Eurasia went to bone chilling cold during OCT....but it has nothing to do with the stratosphere event. It was cold before the event in Eurasia, it was warm in N. America before the event. 

 

The cold in Eurasia & the warmth in N. America has been due to other factors.

 

So, what are those "other factors" and how can the be reversed? 

[james1976]

Hows 12z Euro?

[Tom]

Hows 12z Euro?

Great, it's following the rest of 12z guidance. At the pool now, will post maps when I get in unless someone else wants to. Has a 987mb coming out of CO and tracking towards IA Day 10.

[james1976]