November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

EPS shows a double surge of cold.  The second round is much improved over the 12z run.  Very exciting.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another Nina with an exceptional November event was 1921.  That winter was absolutely fantastic overall.  The others are 1955 and 2010.  Both had top tier events later in the winter.

2010 was fun. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

Oh yeah it has some serious issues…but there’s times like these where it catches onto the pattern in the extended range better for whatever reason. Not always but there’s been some noteable cases of this before. 

[Snownerd3000]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Don’t forget to dress appropriately next week! 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

2010 was fun. 

2010 blast was a rarity. I had back to back morning lows of 11 degrees. It was a true northern blast with no backdoor cold support at all. No Gorge wind. Notta.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

2010 blast was a rarity. I had back to back morning lows of 11 degrees. It was a true northern blast with no backdoor cold support at all. No Gorge wind. Notta.

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

[Skagit Weather]

In case anyone was wondering, here are the top 10 coldest highs for BLI, SEA, and PDX in the first half of November. Even if we squeak out a high below 40F we would be in relatively rarified air.

(Edit: For some reason BLI is missing high temp data for 1955/11/12 and 1955/11/13)

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

Was very extreme. Pulled off a 35/21, 26/20 and a 30/14 consecutively. Had 4” of snow which was more than expected and a rare wind advisory…for strong north winds. Have never seen a wind advisory for northerly winds other than November 2010. Was also a flash freeze situation roads and sidewalks froze up very quickly. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'd like to stay up for the 6z night shift, but exhausted. Hold it down @TigerWoodsLibido bro. Good night all

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'd like to stay up for the 6z night shift, but exhausted. Hold it down @TigerWoodsLibido bro. Good night all

So many people gonna be up late, this is awesome!!

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

One nice thing is if this doesn’t pan out…mountains are still gonna get tons of snow either way. We will also still have 4 months of potential opportunities coming up after this going into early March. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be great to go ahead and lock in member #39

[snow_wizard]

Temp is dropping nicely with the CAA tonight.  Down to 45 with cloud cover right now.

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with 55.3 for October.  0.7 below 2014.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with 55.3 for October.  0.7 below 2014.

55.9 here…1.8 below 2014 and +3.3 above average. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm helping m'ladywife get ready for her surgery so I will update the frames as best I can. Usually rolls out about 2:30 or so.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Tequila

That sticky icky (no stems, no sticks, no seeds) And what's your name lil' fella? Purple Sticky Puuuuuuuunch.

Ich tu dir weh 

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That John Denver is full of man.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift GFS day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 6

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

ANAFRONT

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very nice!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on GFS. I believe!!

It’s got that dawg in him!!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Totals so far.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Time to go bail out the tarp on the pool. Every 0.10”. Woohoo!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don't fuckkin' worry about past day 8-9 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Love seeing this!

[Requiem]

Happy to announce that the 06z GEFS is pretty drastically improved