November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

Was very extreme. Pulled off a 35/21, 26/20 and a 30/14 consecutively. Had 4” of snow which was more than expected and a rare wind advisory…for strong north winds. Have never seen a wind advisory for northerly winds other than November 2010. Was also a flash freeze situation roads and sidewalks froze up very quickly. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'd like to stay up for the 6z night shift, but exhausted. Hold it down @TigerWoodsLibido bro. Good night all

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'd like to stay up for the 6z night shift, but exhausted. Hold it down @TigerWoodsLibido bro. Good night all

So many people gonna be up late, this is awesome!!

[TacomaWx]

One nice thing is if this doesn’t pan out…mountains are still gonna get tons of snow either way. We will also still have 4 months of potential opportunities coming up after this going into early March. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be great to go ahead and lock in member #39

[snow_wizard]

Temp is dropping nicely with the CAA tonight.  Down to 45 with cloud cover right now.

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with 55.3 for October.  0.7 below 2014.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with 55.3 for October.  0.7 below 2014.

55.9 here…1.8 below 2014 and +3.3 above average. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm helping m'ladywife get ready for her surgery so I will update the frames as best I can. Usually rolls out about 2:30 or so.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Tequila

That sticky icky (no stems, no sticks, no seeds) And what's your name lil' fella? Purple Sticky Puuuuuuuunch.

Ich tu dir weh 

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That John Denver is full of man.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift GFS day 1

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 3

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 4

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 6

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 9

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

ANAFRONT

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very nice!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on GFS. I believe!!

It’s got that dawg in him!!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Totals so far.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Time to go bail out the tarp on the pool. Every 0.10”. Woohoo!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Don't fuckkin' worry about past day 8-9 here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Love seeing this!

[Requiem]

Happy to announce that the 06z GEFS is pretty drastically improved

[Requiem]

It cannot be denied that this is a pretty D**n strong mean 

[Dave]

 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

 

Missed the memo. There was a rewrite to "November SNOW" 

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome to November

11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap

 

Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.

 

Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

We really want to see the 12z EURO/EPS continue to trend colder too. GFS/GEFS is one thing, but if we can get the EURO on board and within Day 7 now it holds a lot more weight.

12z GFS in 2 hours 2 minutes
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 12 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

[MWG]

Looks like it didn't start raining till about 5am and right now it's just pouring! Currently 45F

[Cascadia_Wx]

Well at least October got close to catching up to average on precip. And it didn’t smash the warmest on record by that many degrees.

On to November! Cloudy and 45 currently.

[The Blob]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

My husband's snoring

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Looks like it didn't start raining till about 5am and right now it's just pouring! Currently 45F

It’s been fun here. Y’all are in for a treat. SW Oregon folks gotta stick together!! Big winter coming up!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to November

11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap

 

Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.

 

Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!

Rex Block reigns supreme.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, The Blob said:

My husband's snoring

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

H20 and nothing. 

[The Blob]

Phone app on board 

[The Blob]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

[ShawniganLake]

32.5F. Just missed a freeze here.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

Thank you. I haven’t told her about the impending hammer drop so all is well on that front so far.

[MWG]

19 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My husband's snoring

Mine woke me up at 2am. He had a whole orchestra going on. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.