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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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  • Longtimer

Looks like it's currently 42 at home with a high so far today at midnight of 44. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Until then my Banana trees continue to grow !!! I bought a single small plant years ago to accent a little pond.  Now their taking over my yard! 
Next year I need to thin the herd.  

353D8B6E-1829-4C58-8A57-E5A4F6297B76.jpeg

Both banana AND palm trees! A Phil-approved garden!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Until then my Banana trees continue to grow !!! I bought a single small plant years ago to accent a little pond.  Now their taking over my yard! 
Next year I need to thin the herd.  

353D8B6E-1829-4C58-8A57-E5A4F6297B76.jpeg

lol that looks like my folks backyard in South Carolina

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what happened here in December 2016... Almost unimaginable we could go that long without a freeze, but things turned out just fine. 

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

I found some quite tasty blackberries still on the vines during the snow of November 2010. They were growing in our wood pile and must have been slightly protected, but it was still a unique sight to see.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 0"

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

Last year we didn’t freeze until 12/25 as well. 2008,2016 and 2021 were all exceptionally late first freezes that proceeded very good winters. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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18z is running…hopefully we continue to have really good control/ensemble runs. The EPS mean is really good…doesn’t even seem possible that there could be such support on the ensembles for this. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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  • Longtimer

2008 had a fairly early (By recent standards) freeze in much of the Willamette Valley with that trough around Indigenous People's Day. But after that we torched until December. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol of course that was yesterday's model on crack

I’ve got this….I pretty good about not trusting any model until after an event unfolds!  Then…only then will I be onboard and yield to the excitement! Italian Puppet GIF by Madman Films

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2008 had a fairly early (By recent standards) freeze in much of the Willamette Valley with that trough around Indigenous People's Day. But after that we torched until December. 

I would say that worked out pretty well.

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Last year we didn’t freeze until 12/25 as well. 2008,2016 and 2021 were all exceptionally late first freezes that proceeded very good winters. 

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

Snow however before Nov. 17 is quite rare. 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Sonny Summers said:

I would say that worked out pretty well.

It did. I would say, December 2008 is the GOAT Event of the 21st Century even down to about Salem, though 2016-17 was probably the best overall winter of the Century for Salem. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Phantom snowstorm on the gfs already with temps in the upper 30s and DPs in the mid 30s 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

first freeze is like 2.5 weeks late or something over here.  I've had multiple frosts IMBY, but no official freeze yet that I'm aware of

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  • Longtimer

GFS throws us about 2.75" in a 24-hour period ending Saturday afternoon. 

Watching tomorrow morning, if we have precip around it will at the very least be mixed with snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

Snow however before Nov. 17 is quite rare. 

Yeah we typically get our first freeze about that time as well. Sometimes we have to wait until late November/early December and in 08,16 and 21 it was mid/late December. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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  • Longtimer
Just now, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

 

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. 

Last 4 runs at day 6. 

trend-gfs-2022110118-f144.500h_anom.na.gif

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

The nice thing about the gfs operational model is if you don’t like what it’s showing…it’ll almost always be completely different the next time. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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  • Longtimer

The good news is it is still pretty chilly.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Operational will waffle around, at the very least it looks active, wet, and possibly cold. Really all we can ask for going into mid-November.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Man, somebody give the GFS the cuervo, stat.  Looking at that model run last night, you couldn't have asked for a better position of that arctic h coming almost directly down from the north.  This run it gets shoved off to the east and game over.

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