November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Until then my Banana trees continue to grow !!! I bought a single small plant years ago to accent a little pond.  Now their taking over my yard! 
Next year I need to thin the herd.  

Both banana AND palm trees! A Phil-approved garden!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

The Control wants to triple this by the 10th 

 

 

This is quite an impressive mean. Wow. 

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Both banana AND palm trees! A Phil-approved garden!

Everything was so small when I put them in…..work a few shifts, raise a child and poof!  Didn’t totally think this one through

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Siberian Express has such a lovely ring to it
It also goes great with cocoa 

lol of course that was yesterday's model on crack

[Guest administrator]

14z Peruvian has everything sliding east. Judah was right again.

[Sonny Summers]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol of course that was yesterday's model on crack

All the best runs involve drugs, alcohol, inhalants, or hallucinogens.

[Cloud]

As it currently stands with the models, next Tuesday's total lunar eclipse will be impossible (between midnight-5am).... but we'll take some snow in its place!

[Guest administrator]

3 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

These posts got old like a year ago. 

Lol.

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Until then my Banana trees continue to grow !!! I bought a single small plant years ago to accent a little pond.  Now their taking over my yard! 
Next year I need to thin the herd.  

lol that looks like my folks backyard in South Carolina

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

All the best runs involve drugs, alcohol, inhalants, or hallucinogens.

indeed they do

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what happened here in December 2016... Almost unimaginable we could go that long without a freeze, but things turned out just fine. 

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

[FroYoBro]

11 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

All the best runs involve drugs, alcohol, inhalants, or hallucinogens.

I just smoked some PCP, so the 18z is going to be AMAZING!

[umadbro]

[Guest administrator]

Looking over the past years of analytics, October 31st was the business day the forum has seen in an October since 2017 and the second busiest October day of all time.

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

I found some quite tasty blackberries still on the vines during the snow of November 2010. They were growing in our wood pile and must have been slightly protected, but it was still a unique sight to see.

[Guest administrator]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I just smoked some PCP, so the 18z is going to be AMAZING!

Get a huff of DMT smoked through a broken mercury thermometer and you'll have forecasting skillz on par with the Panasonic.

[Randyc321]

18 minutes ago, administrator said:

14z Peruvian has everything sliding east. Judah was right again.

iFred?  

[TacomaWx]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our roses were in full bloom when it started snowing on 12/4/16.    

Last year we didn’t freeze until 12/25 as well. 2008,2016 and 2021 were all exceptionally late first freezes that proceeded very good winters. 

[Sonny Summers]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I just smoked some PCP, so the 18z is going to be AMAZING!

Hey, that's nothing. The Druncle puts that on his Corn Flakes© in the morning.

[TacomaWx]

18z is running…hopefully we continue to have really good control/ensemble runs. The EPS mean is really good…doesn’t even seem possible that there could be such support on the ensembles for this. 

[Phishy Wx]

Druncle is loading up his bong as we speak

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2008 had a fairly early (By recent standards) freeze in much of the Willamette Valley with that trough around Indigenous People's Day. But after that we torched until December. 

[Blizzard777]

33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol of course that was yesterday's model on crack

I’ve got this….I pretty good about not trusting any model until after an event unfolds!  Then…only then will I be onboard and yield to the excitement! 

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2008 had a fairly early (By recent standards) freeze in much of the Willamette Valley with that trough around Indigenous People's Day. But after that we torched until December. 

I would say that worked out pretty well.

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Last year we didn’t freeze until 12/25 as well. 2008,2016 and 2021 were all exceptionally late first freezes that proceeded very good winters. 

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

Snow however before Nov. 17 is quite rare. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

I would say that worked out pretty well.

It did. I would say, December 2008 is the GOAT Event of the 21st Century even down to about Salem, though 2016-17 was probably the best overall winter of the Century for Salem. 

[TacomaWx]

Phantom snowstorm on the gfs already with temps in the upper 30s and DPs in the mid 30s 

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

first freeze is like 2.5 weeks late or something over here.  I've had multiple frosts IMBY, but no official freeze yet that I'm aware of

[Bueryan]

Longtime lurker here...  I figured it was a good time to check-in for the first time this year.  Glad to see old friends.  I've got my saddle ready for the model riding this week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS throws us about 2.75" in a 24-hour period ending Saturday afternoon. 

Watching tomorrow morning, if we have precip around it will at the very least be mixed with snow. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA's average first freeze is about Nov. 14/15 and it looks like the it could be around Nov 9/10 this year per the models so it wouldn't exactly be out of the ordinary. In fact, I think that's probably quite normal and due given how late the first frost/freeze were last few years. 

Snow however before Nov. 17 is quite rare. 

Yeah we typically get our first freeze about that time as well. Sometimes we have to wait until late November/early December and in 08,16 and 21 it was mid/late December. 

[Doinko]

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

 

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, I was going to note that trend. Oh well. 

Last 4 runs at day 6. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Trough digs too far offshore it seems

The nice thing about the gfs operational model is if you don’t like what it’s showing…it’ll almost always be completely different the next time. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

 

Last 4 runs at day 6. 

Better than the 12z though it seems

[Cloud]

Our drunk uncle may be sobering up today after yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The good news is it is still pretty chilly.

[MillCreekMike]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

Last 4 runs at day 6. 

Block seems to be a little weaker with each run also

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Better than the 12z though it seems

I'm not so sure... still looks chilly but GOA blocking is clearly weaker. 

[Phishy Wx]

yeah it took a tick back east and south on this run it seems and may as well continue

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I'm not so sure... still looks chilly but GOA blocking is clearly weaker. 

Yeah you're right the block looks weaker, the trough position is slightly better though 

[Requiem]

Operational will waffle around, at the very least it looks active, wet, and possibly cold. Really all we can ask for going into mid-November.

[Weiner Warrior]

Winter canceled  

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, KeVamgedon said:

Winter canceled  

Try posting that again in a few months! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

[MossMan]

Fantastic forum signs!!! Blocks are always too far East, west, north, south…Reminds me of the week before the December 2021, February 2021, January 2020, February 2019, February 2018, December 2017, January 2012 events…Just to name a few (many other honorable mentions over the last decade) 

Its coming! 

Edited November 1, 2022 by MossMan

[T-Town]

Pretty nice puffy cloud day today. 

[Snownerd3000]

Man, somebody give the GFS the cuervo, stat.  Looking at that model run last night, you couldn't have asked for a better position of that arctic h coming almost directly down from the north.  This run it gets shoved off to the east and game over.

[Doinko]

[Meatyorologist]

Temporary pullback right on schedule